Hey Dems, stop doomscrolling and go win the election
Hey Dems, stop doomscrolling and go win the election
Despite all the doom scrolling, Harris has a comfortable lead in the electoral college right now.
The time for vibing is over. It's too late to change anyone's opinions (especially because national level events like debates are over). Harris will finish her Media Blitz soon (including a Fox News showing) while Trump retreats into his shell hoping no one notices how damn stupid his mouth is.
This is the time for doing. The focus should be on voter drives and other get out the vote pushes. It's mid October, and the October surprises are against Trump and in our favor.
It's not the lead we wanted but it's a lead nonetheless. Don't talk yourself out of believing this lead because of a bad poll or two.
She will only win if you vote. Do not say “she’s got this, I’ll skip it.” Do not say “I can’t bring myself to vote for her.” Do not say “something something genocide.” Vote. For. Her.
Because if you don’t, he will win. And you’ll still get the genocide, plus so much other even worse shit.
She doesn't "got this." The election is too close for logic or comfort.
I can't vote anymore... I already did!
“playing by the rules? That’s why dems lose!!!”- some ass.
Early voting starts next week for me... I guess my state is just later than all of yalls....
Well I vote by mail and live abroad - my ballot needed time to get to me and then get back to my city clerk.
Take action today! If nothing else it will help with anxiety
Make sure to register to vote. Deadlines are fast approaching in many states
Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online
Write letters to voters in swing states or in competitive downballot races
Harris has a comfortable lead in the electoral college right now.
As much as I want to buy into this optimism, I'm having trouble equating Harris's marginal lead in the average national polls with a comfortable electoral college lead.
When battleground state polling is within the margin for error for states she needs to win and the no toss-ups map looks like this, you really need to have an abundance of faith in professional poll aggregators' judgement and weightings to feel comfortable.
From the data table at the bottom of this Nate Silver article (below the sports betting), he suggests Harris needs to win the popular vote by a +2 to +3 margin in order to have a greater than 50% probability of winning the electoral college. The latest polling from the Silver Bulletin has her at +2.9, just enough to give her "a slight advantage, but with emphasis on slight."
Nothing about this makes me feel comfortable.
Thanks for all the doom scrolling links.
Yeah and Nate Silver was calling a landslide Clinton victory, too. It's just another talking head.
As much as I want to buy into this optimism, I’m having trouble equating Harris’s marginal lead in the average national polls with a comfortable electoral college lead.
Trump can win Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, AND Arizona but Harris would still win if she gets Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
That's a comfortable lead no matter how you spin it. Its a lead, but within the margin of error. So there's work to do, in particular we must now step to the polls and vote. Close this out.
National polls don't matter. Ignore them. Focus on the electoral college maps and the specific states.
That's a comfortable lead no matter how you spin it.
My brother in anti-Trumpism, the only spin here is yours in saying her lead is comfortable.
Your original OpEd focused on national polling, so that's what I responded to. But yes, ignore the national polling, focus on the swing states, the electoral college is what counts.
From the same WaPo article as your picture is this swing state focused chart:
It shows the 2020 polling error, which was largely in Trump's favor in swing states (other than GA). If the same polling error still exists now in 2024, all that comfort disappears. The polling error was even greater in Trump's favor in 2016, however was in Obama's favor in 2012.
The point not being that Trump will outperform the polls this time, but that margins of error matter, and the reality could swing either way. With polling in so many states being within the margins, we're likely seeing the closest election of our lifetimes.
And all this isn't meant to be doom and gloom, but I ain't going into this election with Clinton levels of comfort, again. You're absolutely right on the game plan though. If you live in any of these states, your vote this time will likely be more consequential than it ever will be.
I will only be comfortable after she's inaugurated.
I see someone learned from 2000
Harris has a comfortable lead in the electoral college right now.
2016 DNC Campaign literally moments before disaster.
I just came from the utterly brain dead "Harris cares about Gaza" meme post , so I can safely start labeling posts like these as hopium and accepting the status quo.
People really out here thinking the money from the biggest PAC is gonna both allow the dems to win and somehow convince them to actually pass significant legislation to improve literally anything for the middle class beyond token handouts and continuing to repair what Trump destroyed in like only 3 months of hime being in office.
Dunno how Republican turnout is gonna be, but Democrats are about to get a kick in the nuts from all the constituents they willingly chose to ignore. Might still win, but thinking it's going to be easy is a false hope.
I don't think anyone is under the illusion this will be easy. Winning will be hard enough but even then there will be massive hurdles to actually being inaugurated.
Harris doesn't have a comfortable lead in the EC, what are you talking about? Even your own posted article says she's within the margin of error nationally, and the race is closer in the swing states than in the national polls. That's by definition not a "comfortable lead."
Biden won with 4.5% more of the national vote. Harris currently is polling at about half that. In the EC, Biden won by only 78,000 votes despite his large +4.5% popular vote lead.
Two different polls in the last two days have flipped two swing states over to Trump. Nate Silver's polling aggregator reflect the many, many polls that have shown Trump gaining in multiple swing states. Silver's projections reflect this by indicating a six point drop for Harris to win the EC since the end of September.
Optimism is fine, hopium is not. No high quality polling shows Harris with a "comfortable lead" in the electoral college.
These "don't worry be happy" posts seem like they're coming straight from the Trump campaign. Harris has a comfortable lead, I guess I don't have to worry! Even if you say "but you have to vote," the psychological effect of denying the state of the race with hopium like this is to make people feel less concerned and more complacent about voting.
Biden won by only 78,000 votes despite his large +4.5% popular vote lead.
The magic of the Electoral College. 2024 is expected to get even worse, as states like California and Texas lean harder left than at any point in recent history, but California can't yield any more EC votes than it already does and Texas Dems will still be a point or two shy of winning the state under the most Dem-leaning models.
Swing states are all that matter. And once they've swung far enough (as in the case of Virginia and Colorado and Florida) they stop mattering again.
Optimism is fine, hopium is not.
Be an optimist. Be a pessimist. It doesn't matter. The folks with the biggest thumbs on the scales are mega-donors, media magnets, and the majorities on various state and federal courts. At some point, you have to realize that your vote matters far less than there's. It's a rich man's country, we just live in it.
I agree with your general view that it's not actually time to relax.
But I will point out that you can't just assume the electoral college advantage stays the same from election to election.
Biden won with 4.5% more of the national vote. Harris currently is polling at about half that. In the EC, Biden won by only 78,000 votes despite his large +4.5% popular vote lead.
In 2020, Biden won by 4.5% in the popular vote, but he won the tipping point state of Wisconsin by 0.6%. In other words, the electoral college was worth roughly a R+3.8% advantage in 2020 (yes, 4.5% minus 0.6% is 3.9% but when you use unrounded numbers it's closer to 3.8%).
Is 2024 going to be the same? Probably not. The New York Times ran an article about this last month, and the tipping point state in the polling was Wisconsin, where Harris was polling at +1.8%, only 0.7% lower than the national average at the time of 2.6%. The article noted that national polling has Trump shrinking Harris's lead in non-competitive blue states like California and New York, or expanding his lead in places like the deep south, while not gaining in actual swing states compared to 2020.
Note, however, that as of today, Harris's lead in Wisconsin has shrunk to just under 1%, so we are seeing a shift towards Trump in the actual electoral college.
Right now, Harris is showing a lead in the national polling averages, by aggregator:
- 538: Harris up by 2.4%
- NYT: Harris up by 3%
- 270towin: Harris up 2.5%
- Nate Silver: Harris up 2.9%
It's a close race, according to the polls. But whether the polls are actually accurate remains a huge unknown. So everyone should vote, and those with the means should volunteer.
I generally agree with you here, and I think we're expressing a similar point. And the general sentiment that the electoral landscape can shift from one election to another is true, but I think it's worth underscoring that the changes you’re discussing haven’t yet led to a significant break in the tightness of the 2024 race. The fact that Harris’s lead in Wisconsin has shrunk from 1.8% to just under 1% recently is exactly the point. This shows momentum shifting toward Trump, not to mention the same trend in other swing states.
You’re correct that the Electoral College advantage may change slightly in 2024, but as of now, the fundamentals we’re looking at are pointing toward a very close contest in the key battleground states. It’s not just the national polling averages that matter here—it's the state-level dynamics that determine the outcome, and recent polls show the swing states tightening, which is why it’s reckless to assume Harris is in a secure position. Even Nate Silver's model, which tends to account for some unpredictability, has downgraded Harris’s chances since the end of September.
National polling averages like the ones you cited (538, NYT, etc.) paint a picture of a close race, and while they show a lead for Harris, the recent shifts we’re seeing in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, among others, indicate that Trump is gaining ground. The fact that Harris’s national lead is shrinking in traditionally blue states like New York and California actually emphasizes her vulnerabilities in the swing states, where the race is most critical.
Bottom line: There’s no data right now that suggests a significant shift in the electoral college advantage for 2024. In fact, if anything, Trump’s recent gains are pushing the tipping point states even closer. With polls this tight and the Electoral College looking like a replay of 2020’s knife-edge margins, it's exactly the wrong time to get complacent. Everyone should be treating this as an all-hands-on-deck situation.
agreed. Trumpers always underreport their support because they know its shameful and dont want to admit it. So the poll numbers are almost certainly worse for Harris than they appear. Harris (and Biden shares the blame) are on track to lose the election and destroy this country and its because she refuses to reverse herself on genocide support. She is doing this to herself.
Gaza consistently polls as one of the least important issues for voters. Among voters 18-29 of 16 issues presented in the Harvard IOP polls of that age group, it consistently comes in last or second to last in ratings of importance.
Seems pretty unrealistic to expect politicians to reverse their positions about things very few people care much about.
I was incredibly happy to be able to vote by mail, I really hope that gets expanded! It was wonderful to be able to sit down and look up all the people I didn't know about and read more about the propositions on the ballot and then make my decision. Just popped it in the mailbox on my way out to work and that was it! Easy easy.
Also: "Don’t talk yourself out of believing this lead because of a bad poll or two."
Stop reading my comments Washington Post!! :P
In New Jersey, for every state-wide vote (so like excluding your local school board emergency vote or whatever), they send every registered voter a sample ballot like two weeks before voting day. It gives your name, address, district, voting location, poll hours, and a complete copy of the ballot as it'll be shown to you. It really helps me be confident in my vote :)
Not gonna lie... the headline got me to finally get around to donating.
Not gonna lie...
Dont beleive him, he lies all the time.
I'd say those aren't my pronouns, but how would you know whether or not to believe me?
Remember, if Kamala looses its completely the fault of third party voters and not Kamala's horrible policies. If Kamala wins then itll be the fault of third party voters why she wont do anything constructive.
I'm so sick of hearing about how she won't do anything constructive.
Even if that's true, so what? Who the hell cares?
Who are you going to rent your free room to, the woman who is gonna leave it exactly how you find it, or the guy who's going to drill holes in the wall to mount the equipment to run his meth lab and store his garbage there for weeks on end? I swear to God, some people have the risk assessment ability of krill making a beeline for a group of whales.
I'm so sick of hearing about how she won't do anything constructive.
Even if that's true, so what? Who the hell cares?
I care... deeply. Ineffective milquetoast corporate democrats give more ammunition to right wing extremists... look at decades of weak anti-labor centrists in Europe that are getting pushed out by voters desperate for any change.
Starmer is currently teeing up the UK for some extremist tory by being a centrist labor PM who is unlikely to address any of the people's pain points.
If democrats actually did shit (and, as an aside, Biden is actually doing shit but is terrible about bragging about it) then the hollow GOP message wouldn't have a leg to stand on.
Democratic strategists believe your sentiment is the only one and it's why they keep fucking losing to deplorable candidates.
I’ve been canvassing twice so far. The second time I wasn’t able to talk to anyone, but hopefully I will next time.
Nice, keep up the canavassing!
One thing I was told is that ringing the doorbell a second time after waiting a bit can increase the response rate. I haven't tried it myself but was told by a couple of people that it helped a good amount
It can also just varies a lot day to day and location to location on the response rate. Some days more people answer the door, others day it seems emptier
I’ll try that thanks!
Hey, me too! This election is giving me too much anxiety to just sit around doing nothing. I live close to a swing state and spent last weekend canvassing there. At this stage in the campaign, the "convincing people" part is over - the focus is now on "get out the vote." It was encouraging to talk to level-headed people who'd made plans to vote or who'd already dropped off their mail-in ballots.
Still, we can't afford complacency. If anyone else feels the restless need to do something, but you don't live in/near a swing state, you can volunteer for phone banking.
That election anxiety is there for a reason - let it empower you to leave your comfort zone for a few hours and make a difference where it counts.
Thanks for reminding me to vote today!
We got our ballots here in Colorado area. I plan on researching the ballot measures and filling it out on my leisure, then dropping it off.
God, I love this state! When some dipshit like dementia donnie trashes this great state of ours, it sure does anger me. Every state should have this option for voting, as a for instance.
Get out there and vote, people (or fill out your ballot and mail/drop it off if you have the option)! Like your life depends on it.
It’s too late to change anyone’s opinions
James Comey has entered the chat
https://www.instagram.com/p/DBCzHeiNSVH/
The James Comey-esque "October Surprises" are coming in on the other side, in support of Kamala.
Trump seems to have completely lost it this past week. Maybe Trump's mental abilities recover in a few days, but we already got the clips we need to damage his campaign further.
I can't vote today
Note though that a number of states have already started both mail and in person early voting. You are likely able to vote sooner than you may think
https://www.vote.org/early-voting-calendar/
I'd also encourage voting early. It can save you from any issues popping up like getting sick on election day. Campaigns will stop bugging you as much once they see that you have voted (though they obviously cannot see who you voted for)
Though I think early voting is a good thing to take advantage of be aware of your voting board if you're in a swing state. Georgia is making some pretty overt moves that they may try and disqualify mail in votes and call the count early. It's sad that we need to consider this but Trump has already used the "we were winning until they found mail in votes" line of attack and true believers in that bullshit have taken over Georgia's election board.
Waiting for my ballot to arrive.
If you can vote early, vote as early as possible. Part of the Democratic mission is to turn out the vote, and if you vote the earliest, we can focus on those who have not yet voted.
Washington Post - News Source Context (Click to view Full Report)
Information for Washington Post:
MBFC: Left-Center - Credibility: High - Factual Reporting: Mostly Factual - United States of America
Wikipedia about this sourceSearch topics on Ground.News
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/14/democrats-trump-harris-election-fears/
THIS IS AN OP-ED
For crying out loud, you'd think this bot would know the difference
Hey Dems, stop doomscrolling and go win the election
Im not running this time. Talk to Harris about winning this election.
Uhhhh that would be voter fraud since I already voted.
Not if it's knocking doors, offering to drive folks to the polls (where that's still legal) or handing out water in under served districts with long lines (where that's still legal)
