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Zelensky says wants to end war by diplomacy next year
  • Well, first, you didn't ask a question. You made statements that seemed divorced from the geopolitical and military reality of the EU, so I offered some clarity. And no one thinks Trump will arm Russia? I think perhaps you forget how fond of Putin he and much of the party taking power in the US is.

    No one said the EU will need to buy American arms. What I said is, if Trump decides to stop arming Ukraine and demands they end the war, and the EU decides to compensate Ukraine for what is no longer being provided by the United States, it's quite possible Trump will withdraw the US from NATO. He's already looking for an excuse.

    If you think you can build a military coalition with 70% of the spend suddenly stopping, by all means. What is more likely, as I said, is the withdrawal of the US from NATO would dramatically hamper its effective strength as a deterrent in the region. You would then need to rely on individual member states to attempt to deter or defend from Russian aggression.

    The US is a unified, centralized military with a clear and consolidated command structure across all of its branches with a military spending allocation 4x greater than the entire EU combined. The EU is a somewhat collaborative collection of nations with widely variant defense policies. Because of that, the EU channels the majority of its defense strategy through NATO, within which the US plays an irrefutably dominant role.

    The idea that the EU could unilaterally "roll over" Russia if the US leaves NATO is unlikely, and extremely unlikely if it causes the US to start providing military support to Russia. That goes to my final point, which is, if you think you're right, go ahead and try and let's see how it goes. Fortunately, the leaders of the member countries in NATO are generally not as ignorant as you are, so the likely outcome here is if Trump stops helping Ukraine and tells them to end the war, then Ukraine will end up ceding territory and the war will "end."

    To be clear, none of these are things that I think are good. You may not like it, and I certainly don't, but the idea that the EU will just "go it alone" flies in the face of the political and military reality of the United States and the EU. If you give Trump an excuse to exit NATO, he absolutely will, and the EU will then have serious challenges ahead. The economic impact of attempting to replace even half of the military power that will disappear if the US withdraws would dramatically reshape the EU economy. And not for the better. And that's not even going into what China would do with the EU if this kind of political and military realignment occurred.

  • Zelensky says wants to end war by diplomacy next year
  • The problem isn't simply the US not sending arms to Ukraine and the the EU compensating for it. Do you really want to get into a military technology pissing match with the United States? Because the problem you have is if the Trump begins sending arms to Russia in response to the EU "prolonging the war" by making up for the US no longer arming Ukraine, you're going to realize just how weak the NATO military alliance actually is.

    Oh, but what about the US's NATO obligations, you might say. Well, Trump has long wanted to leave NATO. Trump's team has already pointed out that there is executive authority over foreign policy, and they will argue Trump therefore has the authority to unilaterally withdraw from NATO. And it's quite possible he will, especially if NATO countries align to defy his attempt to end the war by increasing the arms they send to Ukraine.

    It's important to note that without the United States, NATO's collective defense capability would be crippled. The U.S. accounts for 68% of total NATO defense spending, providing the backbone of the alliance's military power, advanced technology, and rapid response capabilities. This dominance means that European allies, even collectively, cannot match the U.S. in terms of strategic lift, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, or modern weapons systems, all of which are critical to NATO operations.

    U.S. withdrawal would leave a power vacuum that Europe is neither financially nor militarily equipped to fill, effectively gutting NATO's ability to deter or respond to threats. Without the U.S., NATO as a credible military alliance would collapse under its own weight, leaving its members exposed and vulnerable to external aggressors. If the EU is worried about Russia continuing to expand its territory through force, the best way to make that happen would be to piss off the United States. Trump wouldn't even need to do anything except leave. If he's also arming Russia, say good night.

    The EU is in no position to dictate terms or defy the will of the US in terms of military priorities. If you want to do that, than you need all member countries to dramatically reorganize their federal budgets to significantly amplify military spending. Very few if any EU countries a) have the political will to do this b) have the economy to afford this, and c) have the means to actually accomplish this. If Trump says the war is over, there is very little the EU can realistically do about it without making their situation dramatically worse.

    Sad to say, this is truly a geo-political "fuck around and find out" situation for the EU.

  • University of Washington president’s home, car vandalized by pro-Palestine protesters university says
  • Privileged college kids larping as radicals that will only protest in safe spaces and only protest against people that agree with them and/or aren't a threat to them. It's kind of like whatever the opposite of "fighting the power" is. I'm convinced that's why there's so much infighting on the college left: they'd rather hyperventilate about a minor transgression that fails the immaculate morality purity test for someone that 99% agrees with them in all other respects than actually take their politics to people who have real and serious disagreements with them.

    Hint: they're usually only a few blocks from college campus. You know, the area you and your friends never go? Where the poor people live? That you supposedly care about?

    Not all are like this, obviously, but I regularly interact with "campus activists" in organizing circles, and it's largely an exercise in self-obsessive circle jerking in my experience. It's incredibly difficult to convince them to do something that might actually take them out of their comfort zone. They'd rather yell at each other, yell at other privileged, harmless college students that disagree with them, or protest college administrators. As though college administrations are some great fascist force.

    They're one level above high school principals, Olivia. Relax.

  • An oil giant just dragged Donald Trump over the climate crisis. What f*cking rabbit hole is this?
  • They count on the weak regulatory powers of nations to "force them" to blunt the worst effects of their industries. Unfettered, the negative effects of their business practices are likely to hasten a reckoning with the very visible and spectacular damage they would cause. Due to stakeholder obligations, corporations are more or less required to take advantage of the profits that can be made by mass deregulation, but they're also aware it might abruptly cause unrecoverable damage to their business.

    Basically, they need governments to regulate them just enough that they aren't deeply and profoundly hated for what they do, can appear to be "responsible" corporate citizens, and can continue to make profits in the near- and long-term, but not so much that it actually meaningfully affects their bottom line. Arguably government regulations, which they basically write themselves through lobbying and other forms of political persuasion, are a critical part of their business model and PR strategy.

    It's sort of like if someone regularly rides in the passenger seat (C-suite) of a super nice car (corporation) with an unstable, angry, and dangerous driver (profit-motive responsibility to stakeholders). The passenger likes that they get where they're going faster than everyone else, they ride in a dope car, they have a very comfortable commute, and they like how everyone is jealous of the car when they pass them.

    That being said, the passenger doesn't want to die and doesn't want the car destroyed. But, since the driver is insane, it's easier to just always agree with the driver that "speed limits are stupid," "air bags are for pussies," "crumple zones are a Chinese conspiracy," and so on. They don't have to worry about it because the laws governing driving, the regulations governing car design, etc. keep them relatively safe. Sure, the driver pushes the limits and occasionally gets pulled over, but, ultimately, they wear their seatbelts, have airbags, crumple zones, and all the other standard, government regulated safety features of a modern, high-end car.

    Then a new president comes in saying all the same things the driver has been saying and says they're going to remove all those "dumb" things like traffic laws, manufacturing guidelines/regulations, and safety features. Suddenly the passenger feels obligated to start trying to either disagree with, and hopefully stop, the president making those changes, or they'll have to disagree, and hopefully stop, the driver taking advantage of them being repealed, or they'll have to do nothing and have a profoundly more dangerous commute with a high chance of death.

  • Everything you need to know about the radical feminist movement that preaches 'no sex'
  • Interestingly, research shows a surprising trend related to this topic: young adults today, on the whole, are engaging in less sexual activity than any generation for which we have data. Yet, this shift isn't equally distributed across genders—where young men (ages 18-25) once reported slightly higher rates of sexual activity than young women, the pattern has reversed. Now, young women report engaging in sex more frequently than their male counterparts, with the gender gap widening now to a degree that significantly favors women in this area.

    The reasons for this shift are still under debate. Economic pressures, the influence of digital media, and evolving social norms are all posited as contributing factors. But the data does suggest (this is based on CDC and JAMA studies) that a smaller subset of men are experiencing a larger share of sexual activity, aligning with certain internet memes and narratives about “Chads” dominating the dating scene. Whether these cultural constructs, such as the "MRA" or "Chad" phenomenon, are reflective of or reactive to this social shift remains unclear. Nonetheless, they generally resonate with the timeline of the observed trends around sexual activity. I'll be curious to see how the trends indirectly the future of dating and sexual relationships among young adults.

    But, all that aside, if more women choose to opt out of traditional dating or sexual encounters with men, more power to women. Coincidentally, it could begin to narrow or at least slow the widening gender gap in this area. I am unsure if that would be good, bad, or neutral. In general, a healthy sex life seems to be an important dimension of the human experience. I would imagine the fact that the overall trends are going down is probably a negative for the psychology of a generation, but I guess we'll see.

    This age cohort also drinks less, has more eating disorders, smokes/vapes less, is more sleep deprived, parties less, is more risk-averse, has shorter attention spans, experiments with drugs less, is more (prescription) medicated, is more depressed, is more socially isolated, and is more anxious than previous generations at the same ages. Looking at research on Gen Z is pretty crazy. And it can be depressing sometimes, but it's a particularly unique age cohort. Scholars widely acknowledge Gen Z as being markedly different than previous youth generations.

  • Edinburgh University warns students not to be 'snobs'
  • I'm simply responding to the article and the OP. I've already noted I'm largely ignorant on the topic/school. The article notes the discrimination is largely against the Scottish and the working-class -- two separate categories they can but needn't overlap -- and OP's comment mentioned it's largely a problem of the English at Edinburgh.

    My second comment was actually intended as a light-hearted joke in the vein of "always blame the English!" but I can see it really offended your sensibilities. Here's hoping you recover soon!

  • Edinburgh University warns students not to be 'snobs'
  • Nah, not really. I would encourage the university to make some generalizations about class background and nationality and become more prejudiced against the wealthy and the English and create a mandate to serve more of their underprivileged countrymen and women.

  • Who will lead Democrats in 2028? Meet the leaders positioning themselves to make moves.
  • I would never vote for the Green Party after watching two decades of their utter disregard for political calculus while being both supercilious and patronizing about it. If the party's behavior wasn't enough, their supporters are utterly obnoxious, self-congratulatory egotists.

    I fully intend to support nearly any candidate running against a green party candidate at the local and regional level, and will happily make political donations to any organization running ads and/or mobilizing on-the-ground efforts against the green party. The green party has been one long abysmal failure after Nader/LaDuke.

    They certainly don't need my help to die, but I'll help dig the grave anyway.

  • Do not submit: Your guide to a way out of this catastrophic mess
  • Remember how it took merrick garland two full years and an independently organized governmental January 6th committee forcing his hand before he pursued criminal charges against Trump? How investigations by the NYT and WaPo showed that, over a year onto Biden's presidency, Garland had ordered no investigations into Trump at all? Yeah.

    That dude is singularly responsible for one of the biggest law enforcement failures in the history of the United States and an extreme dereliction of duty. What a coward. Like most cowards, he hoped if he did nothing and stayed quiet no one would notice him. Unfortunately, now anti-Trump people hate him for his failure to meaningfully prosecute and pro-Trump people hate him for attempting to prosecute in the first place.

    This dude is the squirrel that runs across the street, then gets scared and tries to run back, then gets scared and tries to run across again, then gets scared and tries to run back... and then gets run over by the car.

  • Who will lead Democrats in 2028? Meet the leaders positioning themselves to make moves.
  • Buttigieg/AOC 2028. Never forget that despite looking like a choir boy, Mayor Pete is a bulldog. Love watching him regularly demolish frothing Republicans. AOC is great at/for a lot of things, but at the top of the ticket, she's got too many cheap, easy character weaknesses. Too young. Her voice. Her big-time speeches, like at the DNC, show she's an unpolished orator. No executive experience.

    Other than her voice (I like it, but many people find it annoying), all of those flaws would go away if she serves as VP for 4-8 years.

    If Newsom is the democrat's candidate, I will vote third party. Fuck that guy.

  • Cop29: 2024 has been ‘masterclass in climate destruction’, says UN chief
  • Roughly 70% of factors that have contributed to climate change can't be mitigated in less than 300-500+ years. And all major metrics indicate we are doing worse at mitigating the damage on that last 30% each year. 2023 was a record year for greenhouse gas emissions. 2024 is shaping up to be similar if not worse.

  • Cool weather brings more soup to the menu, tonight's is clam chowder with crispy spam
  • Yeah, usually that really thick, bleach-white chowder is frowned at. Really traditional chowder only uses the starch from the potatoes and cream to thicken it, and it's more soup-like than the kind that's basically the consistency of soft-serve ice cream. Really traditional chowder would someotimes used crushed ship biscuits (hard tack) as a thickener, which is why some people use flour/roux these days. Hard tack is basically the progenitor of modern crackers, including the often served oyster crackers. I like a crusty sourdough myself. Better for the mop up work!

    Rhode Island, a suburb of Boston (😁) has an interesting chowder that has a clear broth that is pretty good too. It's basically identical minus the heavy cream. Great for people that don't get along with lactose.

    Also, pro tip, if you don't have fresh clams, get a bottle of clam juice to add to taste. Usually you steam the clams open and then take out the meat and chop them up for the chowder, and you use the steaming juice leftover to add more clam flavor, as desired. Bottle of clam juice does the same basic thing (without needing to strain out the grit).

    Usually the best chowders aren't brilliant white. They're a little darker like yours and almost look a little "dirty," for lack of a better word. If someone served me a bowl of what you made, I would expect it probably will taste great just from the eye test.

  • Tucker Carlson tells Georgia rally ‘dad’ Trump will give Harris a ‘spanking’

    During the rally Carlson, who has three adult daughters, compared the US under Trump to a naughty girl being disciplined by her father. “If you allow your hormone-addled 15-year-old daughter to slam the door and give you the finger, you’re going to get more if it,” Carlson said. “There has to be a point at which Dad comes home.” At this point the crowd erupted into raucous cheers.

    “Dad comes home and he’s pissed,” Carlson continues. “He’s not vengeful, he loves his children. Disobedient as they may be, he loves them … And when Dad gets home, you know what he says? You’ve been a bad girl. You’ve been a bad little girl and you’re getting a vigorous spanking right now. And no, it’s not going to hurt me more than it hurts you. No, it’s not. I’m not going to lie. It’s going to hurt you a lot more than it hurts me. And you earned this. You’re getting a vigorous spanking because you’ve been a bad girl, and it has to be this way.”

    I mean... What. In. The. Fuck. Carlson just gave himself an erection in front of a crowd.

    33
    Nate Silver: Here’s What My Gut Says About the Election. But Don’t Trust Anyone’s Gut, Even Mine.

    Nate Silver's essay discusses the limitations of gut instincts in election predictions, emphasizing that while polls in battleground states show a tight race, no one should trust their "gut" predictions. Silver’s "gut" leans toward Trump, but he stresses that polls are complex and often subject to errors like nonresponse bias. Both Trump and Harris could overperform based on various polling dynamics. He also warns of potential polling herding, which could lead to a larger-than-expected victory for either candidate. Ultimately, the outcome remains highly uncertain.

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    The big picture: Who is favored to win the presidency?

    In Nate Silver's electoral forecast, Trump is now leading Harris by 6.5% to win the electoral college.

    This final stretch is eerily similar to Clinton/Trump.

    I would appreciate people not knee-jerk downvoting this post just because they don't like what it implies. It's worth being aware that Trump has been steadily gaining for a month, Harris has been losing ground, and this model now has her likely to lose. Ignoring these facts makes it difficult to do anything about them.

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    Does Trump Have Momentum?
    www.natesilver.net Does Trump have momentum?

    And what does “momentum” mean in the context of an election forecast?

    Does Trump have momentum?

    Nate Silver's polling tracker now has Trump slightly favored to win (50.2%) the election. While this shift appears small, it has drawn attention because it pushes Trump just past the halfway mark in forecasts for winning the Electoral College.

    Silver explains that while Trump’s rise over recent weeks is significant, and his polling model, is designed to minimize overreactions to new data to provide more accurate long-term predictions (i.e., it's likely a "real" effect), this doesn't in any way mean Trump "will" win, and the race remains highly competitive, especially in key states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, which are critical to determining the outcome.

    33
    Movies and TV Shows @lemm.ee WoahWoah @lemmy.world
    Anyone watching From?

    I was looking for a community about the TV show From, but I didn't see any. Anyone here watching the show?

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    www.salon.com New documentary details Trump's child-separation policy, but NBC won't air it until December

    The filmmaker of “Separated,” a likely Oscar contender, urged his followers on X to "make their own inferences"

    New documentary details Trump's child-separation policy, but NBC won't air it until December

    NBC has delayed airing a new documentary about Trump's child-separation policy, described by MSNBC's Chris Hayes as "absolutely urgent," until December, despite its importance for public interest. The reason behind the delay appears to be concerns that airing it earlier could hurt Trump's feelings, thereby making him unlikely to do an MSNBC debate. This decision has been criticized as prioritizing Trump's sensitivities over informing the public on a significant and painful policy issue.

    19
    www.theguardian.com Republicans threaten to punish colleges that allow pro-Palestinian protests

    Exclusive: in video, House majority leader outlines plan of attack on universities that fail to quash criticism of Israel

    Republicans threaten to punish colleges that allow pro-Palestinian protests

    The article describes efforts by top Republicans to penalize U.S. universities that allow pro-Palestinian protests on their campuses. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise outlined plans to revoke the accreditation of universities that don't suppress criticism of Israel, potentially jeopardizing billions in federal funding. This push, coordinated with the pro-Israel lobby group AIPAC, would be pursued under a second Trump administration. The offensive targets universities like Harvard, the University of Pennsylvania, and Columbia University, which have faced controversy over their handling of student protests. Critics argue that this is an attack on academic freedom and could have severe constitutional implications.

    13
    Phonebooks

    I was talking to a coworker about these new phishing attacks that send your name and address and sometimes a picture of your house, and I was saying how creepy it is, and they told me that phonebooks were delivered to everyone and used to have like literally everyone in a city listed by last name with their phone number and address. Is that for real?

    91
    It's Possible Harris and Trump Tie 269-269 in the Electoral College.
    www.270towin.com Electoral College Ties - 270toWin

    How is the president elected if the electoral vote ends in a tie or no candidate reaches 270 electoral votes?

    As this recently updated article discusses, while extremely unlikely, given the way this timeline is going it's possible the electoral college ends in a tie. Nate Silver projects this as a .3% possibility.

    Things to think about:

    1. Only about half of the states require their electors to vote for the person that won their state. Who are the electors? Generally no one you know.

    2. If there's a tie, the House elects a president and the Senate elects a VP. Sub-consideration: it is the composition of the House and Senate after the November election that makes those determinations.

    3. This would all technically be decided on January 6th. And you remember how that went last time.

    Regardless, it's highly unlikely this will happen. Still, this would be utter and complete madness. There is literally a non-zero chance we have a Trump/Harris administration. 🤣

    33
    Knife vs. Gun Control?

    Why are knife control laws so strong in the United States as opposed to gun control?

    I was realizing it would be nice to have a knife with auto opening for boxes, etc., basically a switch blade or similar, and I found out that they are super illegal in my state (and/or there are length restrictions, or both sides of the blade can't be sharp, etc), but I can go into a sporting goods store and buy a pistol and ammo in under 30min.

    Shooting open an Amazon box seems inefficient. What is up with restrictive knife-control laws??

    80
    Wall Street is to blame, why are we suffering?

    Ok, so obviously no one here has done anything to make this world what it is. Wall Street, corporations, and racist social structures are why the world is how it is, and that is just the truth.

    I don't understand why I should feel bad about anything when obviously all of these rich assholes and structures of oppression exist. I didn't make them.

    Until the corporations and wealthy people change, why should I feel guilty or bad about things. This literally isn't my fault, they did this, so I just feel like I should be able to live my life and not have to worry about all this. Why can't I?

    14
    InitialsDiceBearhttps://github.com/dicebear/dicebearhttps://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/„Initials” (https://github.com/dicebear/dicebear) by „DiceBear”, licensed under „CC0 1.0” (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/)WO
    WoahWoah @lemmy.world
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