The same exact source or a different one?
The right-ring network has a history of trying to protect Trump from himself by selectively editing interviews
The Ohio senator's venture capital fund invested in the app AcreTrader.
And even at that, it seems more like the registration as a republican was more something she just forgot to update for a long time for her. Not like it was a recent shift in her views/voting
“I did as many people did way back… I registered in the party that my parents were when I started out,” Stelson said. She said since she was in a job that required her not to participate in partisan politics, she had not given much thought to how she was registered.
“And really, what matters to me is not how one is registered but how you vote. And I voted for Joe Biden, Josh Shapiro, John Fetterman, Hillary, Barack Obama. Bob Casey. And when I started seriously considering becoming a part of politics instead of covering it, I took care of business.”
“I don’t even know how many pages it is,” the Pennsylvania Republican told a constituent, a month after praising the far-right policy roadmap for its “accountability.”
Global trade records show a printing company in China’s eastern city of Hangzhou shipped close to 120,000 of the Bibles to the United States between early February and late March.
As governor he got his state signed on to the national popular vote interstate compact
Grier Hopkins, Democrat son of former Democrat Mayor Luke Hopkins, has won the mayoral race for the Fairbanks North Star Borough. A week after the election ended, Hopkins pulled ahead with 154-vote advantage. Robert Shields, the third candidate in the race, took the election from the conservatives w...
Things in brackets added by me for context
They won by just 154 votes, so a good reminder that every vote counts even when you're in a dep red or deep blue area
Note that I say region because the borough race includes more than just the city
It's u/whitehouse
A super PAC-funded political ad attacking Dan Osborn, the independent challenger to Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R), used foreign stock footage to portray financial struggles of people in the United States.
Policy proposal would represent significant expansion of public health insurance program for Americans above 65
The age issue has flipped. In July, President Biden was rightly disqualified as too old for another term. The same is true of Trump today.
The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy found Trump’s tariff proposals would outweigh his tax cuts for all but the very richest households.
They think he'll launch his own coin next.
He's also not spoken to the president either who has attempted to call as well. Biden is not even running for president anymore
We can help make that happen
Canvass, Phone bank, Textbank, etc. for Texas Democrats:
https://www.mobilize.us/texasdemocrats/
Write letters to likely dem voters in Texas to make sure they turnout!
An aide to the Florida governor said that Harris' call "seemed political" and that she "was trying to reach out, and we didn’t answer."
Separate from the article, he's also refusing to extend voter registration deadlines because of the storm unlike South Carolina. Today is still unfortunately Florida's voter registration deadline, make sure to register: https://vote.gov/register
Today is the last day to register to vote in Texas. Make sure to double check your registration because of voter purges and vote!
See how to do so below. Note that there's only mail and in person registration and not online registration unlike most states. Registration by mail must be postmarked by today!
Donald Trump clarified his statements on being a dictator, emphasizing that he meant he only wants to be one for a day, during his rally on Sunday.
She does have kids as a stepmother. They just apparently don't count that
George Washington did not have any children by blood either, so got to be before 1789
The vice president slams ‘outdated’ cat lady remarks on popular sex-positive podcast
Donald Trump was in the middle of talking about fossil fuels when a fly distracted him, and critics say he came off looking old and even confused.Trump, who at the end of September was similarly thrown off when a small fly stole his thunder at a rally, causing him to rant about how things wouldn't.....
I encourage you to take some of the election anxiety and turn it into productive action. That could look like canvasing (door knocking) to phone banking, text banking, letter writing and more. Those all have been shown to increase voter turnout. If nothing else, it at least reduce some of the anxiety
- Here's a site that shows volunteer opportunities around you both in person and online
- You can find canvasing, phone banking, text banking, etc. there
- Help write letters to swing states or competitive down ballot races
- Progressive turnout PAC's postcard to voters
Meanwhile Biden is considering calling a special session directly. It's not a commonly used presidential power but it is an option
The leads in some of the latest Florida polls are now within margin of error of those polls
Hmm maybe you have an extension that could be messing with things? Or maybe try a different browser and see if that helps? Can try emailing their support page thing and see if they have any suggestions
That's actually not the full quote. The full quote show he was not talking about any of those issues at all. He was concerned with the allies being "liberal" and "communist"
It dawned on me today… The bad guys won in WWII. There were no “good guys” in that war. The controlling interests had a jump ball. If you look closely, you see the link between liberalism and communism in the Allied forces. Remember what Gen. Patton said and why they capped him.
Vote forward mainly focuses on turnout rather than persuasion. They actually intentionally tell you to not use partisan language in them even though it's going toward likely dems
Getting dems to show up matters a lot in an election. They do regular testing on it and the letters show a measurable increase in turnout
(And to clarify it's not based on signups, though they do offer a way to opt out when people receive them)
They are primarily focusing on the main swing states for president, but Florida does matter a good amount in terms of the senate though. It's a rarer somewhat close pickup opportunity. With Montana not looking as great lately we'll likely need to flip either Texas senate or Florida senate to keep the senate control. Or there's the close race in Nebraska where Indepdent Osborn could give us a 49-49-1 senate if neither flip and we lose Montana
My response was more so to the "you don't get to 'wish'" part. It could go the same way, it could not. It's not consistent year to year. Assuming it is when long term data does not support that, isn't helpful
Over the long term, there is no meaningful partisan statistical bias in polling. All the polls in our data set combine for a weighted average statistical bias of 0.3 points toward Democrats. Individual election cycles can have more significant biases — and, importantly, it usually runs in the same direction for every office — but there is no pattern from year to year
No where am I claiming that Harris definitely will necessarily be underestimated, I am saying it is possible. Or perhaps even just underestimated by less. Dismissing the possibility out of hand by N=1 is what I am responding to
An alternative reality is saying that polling error is uncertain? I didn't declare anything about it's direction or even that it couldn't be the same as it was earlier
This is something plenty of election modeling people say all the time
Over the long term, there is no meaningful partisan statistical bias in polling. All the polls in our data set combine for a weighted average statistical bias of 0.3 points toward Democrats. Individual election cycles can have more significant biases — and, importantly, it usually runs in the same direction for every office — but there is no pattern from year to year
The reason there’s no long-running polling bias is because pollsters try to correct for their mistakes. That means there’s always the risk of undercorrecting (which apparently happened this time) or overcorrecting (see the 2017 U.K. general election, where pollsters did all sorts of dodgy things in an effort to not underestimate Conservatives … and wound up underestimating the Labour Party instead)
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-werent-great-but-thats-pretty-normal/
That's not how your earlier comments are phrased. The earlier comments declare that this is a given structural bias and that it will always exist. How is entirely ignoring the 2012 election any more real than saying we can't be sure?
Look if you thought the polling bias in the previous election always determined the next one, you would've thought Hillary was in for a big landslide because dems were systematically underestimated in 2012 including in florida. Obviously it did not go the same way. It's not limited to 2012 either
Pollster make adjustments every cycle. In this case, many have made some quite large ones. How much that effects the results isn't fully knowable until only after the election happens
Biden was 4 points ahead in FL in 2020
? In this very comment section you were mentioning polling average earlier that showed it as ~2.5%
Assuming the error is the same direction as 2020 is not a given. Pollsters have made changes to their model that intentionally put more weight on areas likely to have trump supporters. Amid other changes
Not saying she will necessarily win florida, but assuming the worst case all the time is not always accurate either