Harris stretches lead over Trump in what could be significant increase
Harris stretches lead over Trump in what could be significant increase
While election almost certain to be decided by swing states, pollsters explain why growth in national polls is meaningful
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Vote anyway. Be part of a sweep.
Vote for every office, not just the president
In TX, Theodore "I left my dog snowflake at home while the state was freezing and without power for a family trip to Cancun then blamed my wife and children for the trip" Cruz is currently up for defeat.
He only just barely won against Beto O'rourke last time. Colin Allred is closing in and needs all the help he can get.
I think she'll be busy enough with one job
Make it Trump's most embarrassing loss to date!
Followed by a jail sentence!
A sweep will also make it harder for the inevitable attempt of republicans to invalidate the election.
end this silver spoon narcissist retiree's bullshit. Please vote
kamala harris isn't hillary, though. I heard a recording of myself from like 2005 and a someone was saying "yeah hillary clinton can unite people" and I said "..against her" and I barely cared about politics back then.
Except Professor Alan Licthman predicted Hillary would lose then and has predicted a Kamala Harris win. He actually uses a scientific method for his predictions.
Many of the keys are subject to arbitrary interpretation; Nate Silver criticized his process and arguably has a better probability model with more consistent accuracy across thousands of races somewhere around 90%. Key 2 was given to Biden despite the writing on the wall that 2/3 of Democrats wanted a contest both before and after the primaries. Key 3 Incumbency these days is more of a liability with both candidates distancing themselves. Key 9 Scandals have lost a lot of meaning in the Trump era.
Should be noted that he gave a full-throated endorsement of Hillary Clinton... only to predict she'd lose. The thing is, he had originally referenced in two different publications ahead of that prediction that she would specifically lose the popular vote. She didn't. He then changed his model.
Also I'm not a fan of this guy because he belittled with insults those who called for Biden to step down... Despite not giving a prediction on Biden at the time.
I saw an interview with him and he gives off quack vibes to me. š¤·š¼āāļø
Polls use scientific methods too, that doesn't mean they aren't wildly incorrect from time to time.
a scientific method for his predictions
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Harris doesn't suck though. People actually like her.
Really? Because I remember:
People learned the wrong lesson from 2016 polling.
For fucks sake this should not be tight or close. It should be a gods damned CURB STOMP that destroys the Republican party for the rest of history DAMMIT.
Ozzy Osbourne would be a safer choice than this guy
Oh yeah? But would Ozzy Osbourne put Trump's family members in positions of power, funnel as much booty - I mean national wealth as imaginable into Trump's personal pockets and benefit Trump's corrupt cronies? Sorry, I mean make America great again?
Donāt trust polls. Vote.
Doesn't matter. Go vote. Complacency gave the orange toddler his first term. Just sayin.
We need to win by a lot more than razor thin margins, republicans are going to try and steal this one.
And you want to win by a huge margin so they can actually implement good policies, and not have to barter with Republicans and the likes of Manchin.
Are you suggesting that we STOP THE STEAL?
Yes
Don't fucking listen to the polls. GO VOTE!
Let's make sure it matters
Find how to register to vote for where you are
Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online
GO VOTE
Shutup and vote.
Yesterday, I saw a few of donnie's loyalists standing out on a corner at a place with steady traffic, trying to get cars and pedestrians to honk/give them a thumb's up. In the hot sun. No idea if they were paid or not. They were way up in years and probably could be doing almost anything else but that. But these people love dimbulb donnie, no matter how much of a disaster he'll be. The worse off it is for the country, they'll cheer it on, as long as they believe donnie is going to hurt the right people.
Just made me look forward to filling out my ballot all the more. But definitely, everyone: go vote. Don't believe the polls.
As a non-american this scares me.
What the fuck does Trump have to offer to the average citizen? He is basing his campaign on
As an American, this scares me.
I try to share this site when national pole articles come out, because these are the only numbers that matter in our election. It doesn't matter how blue California is if they rat-fuck the elections in the swing states.
Trumps pov is easy to understand, and so heās easy to buy. You only need to stroke Trumps ego and speak his language and heās on your side. Thatās why Republican politicians think they can control him, except heās too neurotic and unstable, likely because of narcissism made worse by dementia.
No one really votes for Republicans, thatās why they have to gerrymander and keep the electoral college alive. Thereās like maybe 35%-37% of the American pop. which really supports their pov. The swing states are only ever an issue because of voter disenfranchisement, not because people actually swing. Very few people actually swing vote.
He is similar to popular non-Americans like Berlusconi, Meloni, Le Pen, and Kickl. Americans aren't unique in that regard.
So they believe that Democrats automatically means higher taxes for them, regardless of income level.
Should you manage to get them to consider the taxation would only target the wealthy, they are afraid the wealthy class will fire them due to the loss of money. Similarly afraid that stronger worker protections would just lead to the jobs going away. They think the benefits achieved by Democrats favor cities and rural areas don't see their moneys worth. Now they didn't spend that much money on taxes and they do get great benefit, but they see the cities get bigger stuff and that leaves an impression.
Speaking of jobs going away, they fear immigrants. Both on racist grounds and the general perceived increase in labor competition.
Fewer arms to Ukraine because they see it as wasting money on a cause that has nothing to do with them. More arms to Israel because they are afraid of Muslims.
Particularly dangerous as key people recognize this is a lot of people, but not the majority. So there's a great fear that democratic voting means they would ultimately be marginalized. So they also are the party most inclined to game the vote however they can, mapping districts, limiting voting access, stalling absentee ballots.
Is that like rubber bands, it's the same amount only stretched? Like we changed the scales on the graph to make it look bigger.
Is it really normal to write like that headline in English? Because to me it sounds stupid.
Seems increases would be the "normal" word to use.
Semantics but I mean it does actually indicate more people polling for her instead of Turnip so it's not stretching in that sense.
I think they use that word because in American politics things are so polarized that it really feels like any gain really does seem like stretching the tiny group of people that can be won over like a rubber band.
AND HERE THEY COME INTO THE BACK CORNER IT'S TRUMP IN THE LEAD WITH HARRIS SURGING UP THE INSIDE!!
It only matters in the swing states. The ones where they're trying to purge the voter registrations, sometimes successfully. The system is broken.
The Republican campaign strategy: ācheat to win, win to cheat.ā
Down ballot matters everywhere.
Only if people are allowed to vote when they show up
Thatās correct. The polls are still very close where it counts.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/28/us/politics/harris-trump-poll-michigan-wisconsin.html
Even in the strongest hold out states, they can be flipped if enough people vote. It can also set up for a flip next election. Vote anyway.