the DNC heavilly convinced all the establishment candidates other than Biden to drop out
That's not rigging an election, that's just politics.
It's literally the same thing Macron is doing right now to stop Le Pen's fascists from winning.
Nobody who was paying attention thought he would be a one term president. He said nothing of the sort because that was never his plan. He literally said so at the time:
I don't have plans on one term
And his campaign emphasized the same thing at the time:
Lots of chatter out there on this so just want to be crystal clear: this is not a conversation our campaign is having and not something VP Biden is thinking about
This is not a conversation we are having among people who actually are running the campaign
And yet people still want to believe a bunch of anonymous "senior advisers" over what Biden actually said. Pure wishcasting.
The only polls that matter are Biden vs Trump, and those haven't really changed post-debate.
People probably are looking at their performances as president.
The polls have barely budged since the debate. That tells you people aren't really using debates to decide who to vote for.
Democrats only need 4 more seats to retake the House. If they win the presidency, there will likely be more than that riding on the coattails.
Because the most popular alternative is Kamala Harris, but there is no evidence she would do better against Trump.
It does what it means to do.
This system is only meant to predict the general election. It ignores any primary candidates who were not nominated.
The only individual characteristic that matters is incumbency.
Most other factors mostly do not depend on the individual who is running. For example, recession, military victories/losses, results of midterm elections, significant third party challenger, etc. The party can run anyone and it would not affect those points.
However, I overlooked another individual characteristic: there is an extra point if the incumbent is a victorious military leader or has significant appeal to members of the opposing party. The only person to get that point in this century was Obama, and only in 2008.
The system is currently meant to predict the electoral college winner, not the popular vote winner.
His hypothesis is that elections are mostly not about individuals. People vote for Team Blue or Team Red. And given the embrace by evangelicals of a criminal who has never read the bible, I think he may have a point.
The only individual characteristic that matters is incumbency, which is why Democrats shouldn't throw that advantage away.
Not meaningless, his prediction system always gives the incumbent an advantage over anyone else in his party.
The UK uses Freedom units too, but they are called Imperial units.
The DNC can rewrite the rules before the convention and nominate anyone they want.
The DNC does not control the Biden/Harris 2024 campaign org, the Biden/Harris ground ops teams including 30 Biden/Harris campaign offices in Michigan alone, the Biden/Harris war chest containing over $100 million, or the Biden/Harris Super PACS.
Biden/Harris can take their ball and go home. And that's why the DNC won't replace Biden unless he willingly steps down.
any replacement shares the most important quality Dem voters want that Biden actually meets.
Apart from money and a functioning campaign organization. But who needs that if you're young, right?
The plan is to remind voters that this will be a close election and every vote matters.
However, the debate is irrelevant. On the one hand, you have a liar who hates immigrants and wants to benefit wealthy Christians. On the other hand, you have a lousy debater who respects the rule of law and protects women's rights.
Nobody faced with this choice is going to ask, "Hmm, just how lousy at debating are we talking?"
This has nothing to do with the general.
The NYT is now calling for Democrats to nominate someone other than Biden.
Biden is pointing out that the NYT did the same in 2020, but Democrats nominated Biden anyway. In other words, who cares what the NYT wants?
The point is that Biden is no worse off than he was before the debate. Few people wanted him to drop out last week. So I don't see any reason to change course now.
Democrats need to chill. You didn't see MAGA idiots calling for Trump to drop out after his felony conviction, and you won't see that after his sentencing. They know those things don't matter. The debates matter even less.
Biden's poll numbers went up after the debate.
What's the issue?
I think it's impossible to replace Harris before Aug 7.
Even the staunchest proponents of running Newsom (or whoever) hope to accomplish this in Chicago.
US president urges Hamas to accept the three-phase plan, saying "it's time for this war to end".
Ending the Gaza war: Three phase proposal
PHASE ONE
- It would begin with a six-week ceasefire, during which the IDF would withdraw from populated areas of Gaza
- Hamas would release "a number" of hostages - including women, the elderly and the wounded - in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Some remains of dead Israeli hostages would be returned to their families
- Palestinian civilians would return to their homes in all areas of Gaza
- Humanitarian assistance would "surge", with 600 trucks a day entering the strip, and hundreds of thousands of temporary housing units sent by the international community
During that six week period, negotiations mediated by the US and Qatar would continue. If successful, the next part of the plan would begin.
...