Will Trump go to prison for felony hush money conviction? Experts are split - ABC News
Will Trump go to prison for felony hush money conviction? Experts are split
Trump's sentencing in his New York hush money case is scheduled for July 11.
There is no good outcome even in the cards. If he goes to jail it will feed into his base's persecution complex. If he gets off easy, nothing's more insufferable than an unpunished malignant narcissist. If he gets a huge fine, he will not pay.
let them feed their persecution complex. we can lock them up, too if they get unruly.
If he goes to jail it will feed into his base’s persecution complex.
If he doesn't go to jail then they will probably say that he isn't really a convicted felon because he wasn't a convict at any point because it doesn't matter what happens, they will twist it into a persecution complex somehow.
I really wish people would stop worrying about actually holding shitheads accountable.
I'm not "worried" so much as not excited about dealing with it.
they will probably say that he isn't really a convicted felon because he wasn't a convict
That doesn't make sense. A convict is just that: someone convicted of a crime, it doesn't depend on jail-time served. Donald Trump is guilty of dozens of felonies for election finance violations related to illegal cover-up payments. So yeah, I totally expect them to say that...
There is no good outcome even in the cards
Gotta think long term.
The "good outcome" is no jail sentence until after the election (or just probation). trump loses the election, and then is found guilty on any other case and then goes to jail for that because he's no longer a "first time offender".
The worst outcome is sentenced to prison before the election, but reporting is delayed till after the election and then Trump wins.
If that happens, he's never giving up power and he won't wait till the next election to pull some more stupid shit.
It's hilarious that you guys think he's more likely to win if he's sentenced to jail.
This makes no sense at all.
You seem to think he'll gain votes from this guilty verdict when everything points to the opposite.
You guys give magats so much more credit than they deserve these people are cowards to their cores.
Gotta think long term.
The problem with this approach is it literally is the weaponization of justice that the right loves to screech about. Timing Trump's trials or sentences to hurt him the most politically is twisting justice to our own ends, even if done in a theoretically altruistic manner. True it might lead to the best outcome for the country, but is that the risk we want to take- that if Trump does win, he won't see any punishment for his crimes at all?
On the other hand, I recognize this is the exact moral quandary that the right loves pushing non-conservatives into, and while we're arguing amongst ourselves about the best way to unfuck this pretzel they're busy burning it all to the ground. So I wouldn't say you're wrong necessarily, just that it's an uncomfortable path to tread.
One wild card to this is the pre-sentencing probation hearing. It happened on Monday, and the only thing we've heard about it was that Trump was "polite, respectful, and accomodating". Well, he also told the officers on the other end of the call to "be safe", whatever that means.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/10/politics/trump-probation-office-interview-hush-money/index.html
Trump got to do the interview remotely, and also got to have his lawyer present, both of which are accommodations that the standard NYC felon doesn't get. (The probation office also had multiple people on the call, too, which is also unusual). His lawyers probably explained to him that if he pissed these people off, they would recommend prison time and the judge would give that a lot of weight. So for once in his life, he had to be respectful to someone who he didn't know and is worth a fraction of what Trump thinks he's worth. Bonus points if they found an immigrant from one of the countries he doesn't like to ask him all those embarrassing questions.
Come to think if it, why would he tell the probation officers to "be safe"? Is he anticipating they might be in danger, for some strange reason?
Come to think if it, why would he tell the probation officers to "be safe"? Is he anticipating they might be in danger, for some strange reason?
If this wasn't trump, I'd say this is one of those things you say to people. Drive safe, safe flight, be safe out there, etc.
Right, you might say that if you knew the person, and knew they traveled to get to you. But would you exchange those pleasantries with someone you just met, over a court-mandated video call?
Trump is excellent at this, saying innocuous things that are really signaling phrases to his people that the rest of us aren't in on. We didn't really know what "Stand back and stand by" meant at the time, but we do now.
They run articles like these monthly at this point an I think it's just the media doing two things. One they're rage baiting for clicks just by using Trumps name. And Two, they're pretending America is a place where the guilty go to jail even when they're rich.
I wish the press wasn't so afraid to write Election Interference in their headline. That is what that case was about, that is what made it a felony. Calling it the "Hush Money" trial is trying to "both sides" his coverage.
Except his base has bought the line of thinking that a candidate is "allowed" to interfere in their own election, because he's trying to win. They are OK with him doing anything, including committing crimes, as long as he wins.
The important part is the fraud. He is a liar, who illegally tried to hide his illegal hush money payments in an attempt to illegally interfere with the election process.
Agreed with what you are saying, but my point was that the media as a whole has to stop writing headlines/articles like his base is going to:
The media's constant crusade to "both sides" every story is a disservice to the facts, and down plays and white washes the facts for everyone. Calling it just a "hush money" trial is a way to downplay the fact that it was actually Trump's way to hide a damaging story when he was running for office. And the crime was the way he hid the payment so that it wouldn't look like it was being done on behalf of his campaign, while breaking Federal tax laws making Cohen's reimbursement look like income. It was also a crime allowing the National Enquirer to pay to catch-and-kill stories for the campaign as illegal campaign contributions (as they were above legal contribution limits, and were unreported).
So yes it was fraud, and it was fraud against the American people, in the form of voter manipulation, and tax evasion.
Also, yes. It's a hypothetical, not based on fact; therefore, any answer is fine, and can also be dismissed without facts. It is a fun game where the news is now speculation instead of reporting on what happened in the past. It's almost like we are wasting our time.
If the rule applied to outcomes, people would simply write headlines that negate any they so choose.
My Magic 8 Ball says : Doubtful
Mine says definitely
Justice Merchan told Donald Trump to his face in his contempt hearing:
"you're a former president and a current candidate, I really don't want put you in jail"
He's not going to sentence him to a day behind bars and anyone who thinks he will is delusional, Justice Merchan already stated his intent and it's in the public record.
Intent isn't the same as what will happen, the law does prescribe what he must do, and if that violates his intent, so be it.
But it does mean he'll presumably be on the lenient side of what he's allowed to do, which means it's very unlikely Trump's going to jail as a result of this conviction. Unless he ends up with a negative recommendation from the probation officer, which seems unlikely from what has been said publicly. But I wouldn't say "absolutely not" yet.
He has too much money to go to prison in my opinion.
That's not a thing.
I mean, have you seen the US justice system? It definitely appears to be a thing.
Narrator: He won't.
there is no way it's some pretty sweet schadenfreude, but donald trump has no prior criminal convictions, AND he's entitled to secret service protection it would be both deserved and appropriate that he is thrown in jail, but at worst, after all appeals are exhausted, which will most likely take decades, and he'll be dead by then, at worst he'll only have to actually serve home confinement, again due to his secret service protection
Imposing a harsh punishment in this situation, even if warranted, would not be seen as unbiased. The fallout would be intense. I'd be most concerned about the perception of those folks who don't really pay attention to politics. Will they refuse to vote for someone who's been to jail on a felony, or will it offend their sense of fair play and make them vote for "the underdog"? The sentence, whatever it is, has to be a 4D-chess move by the judge.
I really don't think it'll be jail time, but I'd love for it to be and more importantly I'd love for the election to bear out that choice.
Guarantee hunter's sentence will be based.on the outcome of the orange turds. It's simple extortion at this point.
'Would be a real shame if your son got 25 years, joe. Just saying. Judge's prerogative and all that, y'know?'
No.
I'm gonna go with "no" judging by how things have been going in the past. I hope to be proven wrong, but I'm not holding my breath.
My prediction - Trump will die of old age, never having seen jail, living a 1% lifestyle.
I would be happy enough if he gets sentenced to prison but is suddenly "too ill" or, you know, his bone spurs or whatever, and gets house arrest. Whatever as long as he doesn't rally or run for president anymore
Regardless of the sentence, it'll get stalled till after the election. So prison might actually be worse, as it'll get his voters out and then if he wins there's no way he'll go to prison or have any other trials.
But this makes him a felon, making jail on future convictions more likely under sentencing guidelines.
So the most likely way he ends up in prison, is if he loses the election and then gets convicted on any other of his many charges. Since then he'll already be a felon at sentencing.
He should go to jail just off this, and Im just not holding my breath. And I wouldn't be surprised if SC shenanigans come into play at some point. Or if he just keeps the appeal wheel spinning till he drops dead.
I said this a week ago, and got obliterated for it. I'm glad this concept seems to be resonating with other Lemmings now that some time has passed.
I completely agree with your other analysis as well. If the goal is for Trump to get what he deserves from the long dick of the law then the only way that happens is if he loses this election.
The last thing anybody who gives a fuck about the future of democracy in this country should want is to turn that cocksucker into a martyr five months out from the only personal referendum on his ideology that we are going to get.