While everyone is watching the world stage and some are predicting WWIII, isn't there a good chance that the USA is getting close to some kind of civil war?
All the ingredients are there and it won't take much to put it all together.
Yeah, somehow all my gun-owning friends get all awkward and quiet when I ask them how it's gonna feel to shoot at the 18yo army recruits and national guard when they finally "come for their guns." I haven't even gotten to ask what anti-drone measures they have.
Not one of them is ready for the realities of a shooting war with the American Military.
I haven't even gotten to ask what anti-drone measures they have.
The answer will be "none" because unless they're ex-military, their entire contribution to any militia is usually "gun".
Most of them wouldn't pass fitness requirements nor take orders. Few of them have other skills such as first aid, communication tech or drone piloting.
Even when contributing their gun, you can't assume they know how to safely and usefully handle a weapon, or that they're mentally fit for combat, because none of that is a requirement for buying a gun.
It's a hero fantasy they've literally never thought critically about, but it's supposed to make all the mass shootings worth it.
I'm afraid you're the one living the fantasy. Of course many of these idiots are exactly as you say. But have you been around such people?
Or are you basing your opinion on the pictures we see on the internet? The pictures thrown out there and made popular because of how foolish they make these people seem?
I'm begging you all, please don't be so dismissive and naive.
I get off-topic for this post towards the end, fit better in the original reply:
Y'all, please, we gotta stop pretending these guys are fat losers.
Right after 01/06 I was at a gun show and bought an old army canteen off a guy. 35-40, fit, military demeanor, all that. As I was walking off, another guy saw something that clued him in that the vendor was an Oath Keeper and they had a low-key chat. He talked about their preparations! Fucking terrorist.
My neighbor is still flying his Trump flag high. Proper flagpole, well lit, all that. Young man, fit, ex-military demeanor. I refuse to speak to him, and never will. No one else has an issue with this! They are meek and complicit.
His next-door neighbor was a former friend of mine. Again, 37 and fit as hell, but not military. First night I met him he told us his brothers were at 01/06. I gave the FBI what I knew, which wasn't much. This guy is a smart, reasonable man, and while not a supporter, still will not disavow Trump.
I'm 52, fairly fit, well-armed and practiced. I shoot every weekend at my camp for fun. Shotguns, various pistols and rifles, I shoot it all. I'm no expert, but I can shoot better than your average bear. If it came down to brass tacks, and we were equally armed, I seriously doubt I could prevail against any of those 3 men.
For the love of god, please get armed, learn safety and practice. FFS, the GOP front-runner is speaking more and more radically. He just called me "vermin" that must be eradicated. He's speaking of "internal enemies". He means you. And it's not just his usual inane rhetoric, look up Project 2025. It a fleshed-out plan to take over the executive branch and impose their will.
What the fuck will it take to get libs off their ass and prepare?! Harsh words and votes are not gonna suffice if Trump gets back in. I fully expect my neighbors to come knocking once Brown Shirts are authorized. Committee of Public Safety anyone?
"Look man, we understand you don't agree, and that's all good, but we gotta take your guns for your own safety. Trust us, you'll be OK, just hand 'em over."
Your country and your very life may be on the line soon. And yes, fighting back may mean your personal extinction. But that was in the cards anyway.
You openly admit that idiots and fascists have been armed, that you wouldn't win a fight against any of them even with your guns, and that an armed population has done absolutely nothing to stop a fascist running for president.
Yet rather than fixing any of that, your solution is "everybody buy more guns even though it doesn't work and funds fascists by proxy".
As best I can figure, the majority on the left are completely unaware of how dangerous things have gotten over the last few years. Unless you're living in it, most people see it as histrionics.
We live in the deep south in what used to be an island of relative progressiveness. I have acquaintances that joined the three percenters, know former military spouting Q shit. Lost the only man I ever called brother to the insanity. Things have CHANGED in the last few years.
Our friend circle has shrunk and we no longer talk to our neighbors.
We're moving to the northeast this summer. There's a very real chance that it won't be safe for us here much longer.
Like you, we're armed and also realize that it likely won't be enough.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme. The smart Jews with means got the fuck out of Germany before things popped off. We can't afford to leave the country but hopefully we'll land somewhere safer.
Hope nothing happens and all the worry has been for nothing. I really want to be wrong.
They think with enough "gotchas!" and revelations of hypocrisy they can win hearts and minds. Nah. We're miles past that. Miles past logic, truth and talking rationally.
Things have indeed changed radically. My guess is that many liberals are missing it because they're in their own little political bubble. Imagine trying to convince someone from Washington State or San Francisco how crazy it's become.
Anyway, I don't have the money to run, and don't wish to. I'll stay and fight for America if it comes to that. I'm middle-aged, and have had a full life, so that's not bravado speaking.
I have a wife, daughter, and son. My daughter is queer. My son is a teen. There isn't a future here for them. My daughter, especially, will be in danger.
I've had to cut all contact with my family.
We've been saving since 2020.
If it was just me, I'd stay.
I pass as a bearded white guy good ol boy. The shit I hear. These people aren't coming back. Even if nothing happens with the next election, I don't know how they rejoin reality.
I don't know what happens to this country. I kind of hope there is a bloodless balkanization.
Man, this hit home for me. I'm a queer woman and I know my dad worries about me tremendously. I don't really have anything to add to the conversation, just wanted to comment. Hopefully things won't get too bad...
For your old man's sake, have a plan. Have a go-bag, include SS card and birth certificate. Try and keep your vehicle 3/4 full. Chances are, you will have time to run to a safe state on one of the coasts. Pre-plan two routes, one for back roads and the other for highways and interstates, print it out. If you can, keep a minimum of $500 on hand and more like $1-2k.
I strongly recommend a handgun, take it to the range and practice enough to be proficient loading and shooting at 7 yards. A single woman is usually welcomed at ranges. Just don't talk politics and if anyone asks, you've got a bad ex-husband. The more straight you appear, the easier it will be.
Sorry for the unsolicited advice/novel. Stay safe.
Haha, no worries. I appreciate it, stranger. Thankfully, I currently reside in California and I have Canadian citizenship to fall back on, so I'm not too worried if shit does manage to hit the fan that hard.
In Project 2025's manifesto, Severino, who is the Heritage Foundation's vice-president on domestic policy, writes that the Food and Drug Administration is "ethically and legally obliged to revisit and withdraw its initial approval" of mifepristone and misoprostol.[21] He also recommends that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention "update its public messaging about the unsurpassed effectiveness of modern fertility awareness-based methods" of contraception.[21] Severino says that the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services should require that "every state report exactly how many abortions take place within its borders, at what gestational age of the child, for what reason, the mother's state of residence, and by what method."[21]
Fucking hell. They are honestly trying to say that pulling out a few times a month is more effective than the morning after pill? Or are they implying that abortion only exists as a measure of birth control, and want to bog down whatever they can’t stop with bureaucratic busywork.
And that’s just abortion. I’m still reading the Wikipedia page and came across plenty of vile unamerican shit in the alphabetically-sorted “Overview” section before abortion.
I swear the writing on the wall is perfectly fucking clear and if Trump wins in November because of a few hundered well-intentioned but fucking deluded far-leftists voting for spoiler candidates, again…I don’t know. What the fuck. Go to another country? Looks like America is just the beginning. Half of Europe and a fair bit of the UK is going down the same far right rabbit hole. Pretty soon gonna be left with just “authoritarian shithole countries” or “original shithole countries”.
Congrats, conservatives. You finally found the New World Order you were looking for.
Edit: more…
When discussing the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Severino called for the rescinding of regulations "prohibiting discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation, gender identity, transgender status, sex characteristics, etc."[38]
Fucking hell. Who was “having anti-discrimination laws” hurting? Any answer to that is patently absurd. The do this just to rub LGBTQ faces in the dirt. Fucking schoolyard bullies. Part of their master plan is to change the rules to make it okay to punch the queer kids.
And you know they are just gonna start there because it’s the most least out-group today. They’ll start rolling back in reverse chronological order. Next it will be the Asians, and then the Italians and Irish won’t be white anymore. Then they’ll just rip off the bandaid on the whole color and race thing. It’s just tricky to do when Italians are still white.
Edit again…
In the foreword of Project 2025's manifesto, Roberts writes,[38]
Pornography, manifested today in the omnipresent propagation of transgender ideology and sexualization of children, for instance, is not a political Gordian knot inextricably binding up disparate claims about free speech, property rights, sexual liberation, and child welfare. It has no claim to First Amendment protection. Its purveyors are child predators and misogynistic exploiters of women. Their product is as addictive as any illicit drug and as psychologically destructive as any crime. Pornography should be outlawed. The people who produce and distribute it should be imprisoned. Educators and public librarians who purvey it should be classed as registered sex offenders. And telecommunications and technology firms that facilitate its spread should be shuttered.[21]
Where exactly is this omnipresent transgender kiddy porn? Asking for a friend. I think Mr Robert’s needs to be informed that C:\Pictures isn’t actually on the internet, even if you open it in Internet Explorer. I know, your “nephew” told you that the “C” is for children, the colon is for where you want to put your peen, and the backslash is to indicate transgendered. It’s not true. He played you for the idiot you are.
The leadership in place is very adept in the art of maintaining the status quo while eroding the baseline slowly. For there to be any dissent among the military there would have to be a very radical shift that goes against the middle. It isn't about trans rights, or abortion rights, or civil rights. Those, despite what both sides of the media will tell you, are centrist issues. The sides that have a side have already chosen their side and nothing will change that. There is no battle for the current extremes. If there were any sort of "civil war" it would be for issues that are detrimental to the foundation of the country which is constantly shifting based on the will of the leadership. I'm kind of talking in circles now, but the point is that as long as we have a two party system there will always be an enemy and a champion for both sides. It won't be until that is gone that either side will have a reason to act and a way to grab the center. Give us 20 years of partisan leadership and we'll see action. While we swap back and forth every 4-8 years no one bitches for long enough for any significant movement to form, and the military will continue to defend the middle.
Just like nearly every war ever fought ever: the poor young masses sent to their early graves over battles between the old disconnected elite chasing power.
I don't know how it is now but when I was in the US Army there was a sizeable chunk of men that were militia members that hated the government but joined the military to get combat training.
Bear in mind a sizeable chunk of that sizeable chunk were probably being edgy barely-post-teenage shitheads. It's a version of the guy who would have joined but [whatever] and besides, he'd have punched the drill (sergeant/instructor/daddy/etc.) on the first day of training. Some assholes just always have to be different.
The most likely scenario is an action that causes the majority of the military to rebel such as what happened in Syria. That's partially why the military swears an oath to the Constitution and not the standing government.
For that to happen you need an inciting incident that is at least perceived to be against the Constitution by the majority of the military including a significant portion of the top brass.
We almost got there with all the January 6th shenanigans but the inciting incident involved the military sitting down and not listening to the Executive branch's unethical orders.
Once the government actually starts cracking down on the domestic terrorists, they have no chance. With all the surveillance they've been doing since 9/11 they're bound to know exactly who to arrest.
They still haven't found the guy that was leaving pipe bombs around on 1/6 have they? I hear what you're saying, but most capitol rioters got caught because they were fucking idiots.
If there was a true civil war the military would probably be divided with some on one side and some on the other but I really doubt there will be a civil war any time in the near future.
The military is very good about making sure that the people that participate in it adhere to the rules they are given.
People that step out of line will be dealt with abruptly and brutally. I'm not saying there won't be dissension in the ranks, but I am saying that the number of military people that will split with their command structure is going to be minuscule and easily dealt with.
I disagree. That's all well and good when it's a common enemy, but when you're ordered to attack your family and friends who live in NY, that's a different ball game.
But you do realize they're going to shoot you. If they're actually ordering illegal things they're going to shoot people who don't obey the orders too. That's a hard decision for a teenager to make.
You just need a couple of generals to say "no my orders are legitimate, theirs aren't, mine come for the real president!" and you have a problem. And all that takes it a little bit of blackmail and bribery or a couple of high ranking useful idiots or psychopathic grifters
Theoretically yes. But if you want to know the climate of senior officers you need look no further than the Joint Chiefs actually yelling at Trump in his office and disseminating memos on exactly what the military oath says. (Loyalty to the Constitution)
I don't get why people think this is an issue. armed Americans are generally shown going against incompetent, untrained police officers. Not the Military who is also just armed better than Americans are legally allowed to be.
Most gun law defenders also tend to overlook this too in fact. If the government wants to make armed citizens stop, they will do it.
A bunch of uppity, rag-tag civilians with handguns, even the handful of clown shows that call themselves “civilian militias” don’t have the resources, logistics, or numbers to combat the National Guard, let alone the rest of whatever armed forces may be brought to bear against them.
I will also point out that the National Gun of the US is the AR-15/M4 which is a .223/5.56 rifle. It can be seen committing war crimes in the Middle East and murdering children on the middle of main street.
What pathetic few gun regulations we have are mostly related to barrel length and them not being fully automatic. The former only actually matters if you need to fire out of a vehicle (and has ballistics implications). And no, riding around in your cybertruck that will shred you with spall if anyone uses even a 9 mm doesn't count. And there is increasingly the argument that even military rifles/service weapons should not have automatic capability because a rifleman with full auto is just a waste of ammo.
Assuming that the result of a "civillian militia uprising" is not "And that is what we call a hellfire missile": The plates in actual military body armor are fairly regularly stopping multiple AK (7.62 mm) rounds. Those hit noticeably harder and is arguably why the US military is pushing for a 6.8 mm round as their standard. If you ever watched an action movie where the protagonist shrugs off a few shots to the chest and returns fire... yeah.
Which is why I always say: if the gun nuts actually gave even a single shit about "we need to be ready to fight the government" they wouldn't be pushing to have their emotional support assault rifles. The answer would be small caliber high velocity rounds fired from concealable pistols. That gives you good odds of getting rounds into vulnerable/less armored parts of the body and you are fucked if you are in a ranged engagement (soldiers carry a LOT of grenades and have access to air support) or a prolonged engagement (soldiers carry a LOT of grenades). Like, there is a reason that The Allies dropped so many pistols and concealable weapons to partisans in WW2.
Because any standing fighting force? They will literally be blown to hell.
And, to clarify. I don't care if you touch yourself to pictures of trump, Lenin, reagan, or che guevara. You are just as dead when the army rolls up.
Okay. Let's assume that you and your buddies are a trained militia. Not "I play paintball once or twice a year" or "I spend every weekend at the range shooting". I mean you actually have a command structure, know how to move as a unit, and are dedicated enough that you will lay down your life for the person next to you.
What are you going to do against an armored vehicle? Or a drone? Or even just indirect fire.
Because... any "reasonably" equipped military can kill millions of people with minimal effort. Just look at what is happening to Palestine.
Just because this topic interests me due to being the intersection of history, military history, "guns are cool even if I don't think civilians should have them", and "the thing that comes after social activism":
Even in the 1700s, a farmer with a gun in the shed was pretty much useless. Battles were won by large groups of people and the only reasons the US managed to beat the Brits were a combination of more or less "stealing" the British military structure that had been set up to defend ourselves coupled with most combat boiling down to sheer number of people who could sort of hold up a gun and maybe fire it. A couple angry farmers might be able to kill even twice their number of soldiers. But they would be up against ten or twenty times that number and one person going down doesn't stop the volley. And if you were actually an amazing shot with dozens of muskets and Heath Ledger to reload them for you so that you could constantly unload on anyone who approached your house on the hill? That is when they get the cannon or mortar.
It was largely the late 1800s to mid 1900s where the idea of a militia could actually fight against an army. Particularly the time around World War 2 when we saw a fundamental shift on the battlefield to where even an individual soldier, let alone a squad or company, had enough firepower to make a significant difference. Line of sight was still essential, even for indirect fire, and armored vehicles could still be consistently negated by bottles of gasoline. This is why we even famously saw things like the Wilmington insurrection of 1898 where a relatively limited number of people could cause widespread damage and be "not worth" the army intervening (racism helps a lot too)
But the tail end of the 20th century has largely negated that. Because yes, the individual soldier has more firepower than ever. But satelites and drones mean that you don't even need line of sight to devastate with indirect fire. And those individual soldiers likely have MUCH better gear than civilians (by design and law). For example, there is a lot of talk about whether the US "still owns the night" now that consumer grade night vision is "good enough". And that does make a significant difference in terms of raids. We likely will never be able to walk around double tapping helpless brown people (without prep work involving tying them up, cop style...) ever again. But it still means we can maneuver at night when most countries would need to take a break because their eyes hurt or they are nauseous from the FOV. Same with body armor and, probably, optics if the new rifle is any indication.
Which, funny enough, puts us back to the 1700s. A bunch of farmers/klansmen/activists/whatever can equip themselves and even train into a cohesive unit. Sure. And they'll kill maybe even ten to one in terms of infantry. And then an artillery strike or a missile or even just someone with a joystick inside of an APC will slaughter them and there will be nothing they can do.
Which is why the successful insurgencies are more about unrest and trying to outlast an occupation than anything else. And... that doesn't work when the country occupying your country is... your country.
Your entire post ignores the reality of what urban small arms warfare looks like. Look at the hellish time militaries have in urban settings: Fallujah, Kabul, Aleppo, Gaza City. Yes, militaries are way better than regular civilians, but there's something like 400 million guns in the US. This isn't just a few people we're talking about here. If 1% of the population puts up a half decent resistance there's going to be a hell of a fight.
Oh I was hoping somebody would play the "the brave men and women of the mujahideen" card!
Yes. Let's look at them
If an army does not want to destroy a population center or be seen as oppressors, they can put up a significant fight. That... mostly accomplishes nothing aside from slowly bleeding an army and leading to a withdrawal. Which, as I said, above, only works if there is somewhere to withdraw to. If that is the army's "land" then they won't pull out
So... let's now look at Gaza. Hamas engaged in a horrifically evil terrorist attack. The IDF instantly used that as an excuse to level Gaza to the ground and ethnically cleanse anyone who opposed them. It doesn't matter how great your small arms tactics are or how many ambushes you have set up if the army is willing to level a few city blocks... or a small city.
And just look at how much the Black Lives Matter movement was vilified by right wing chuds for the recipe for that.
Which gets back to: What are you and your, I am sure incredibly well trained, buddies going to do with all them guns when a tank or even just an APC rolls up? And this ain't like the movies (... or Russia in Ukraine) where it is a lone tank only defended by Brad Pitt's winning smile. There will be infantry as well to prevent you from running up and throwing molotovs at it (which wouldn't even impact an Abrams since that runs so freaking hot?). What will you and your buddies do against drones that are either dropping bombs, launching missiles, or spotting for artillery?
I'm not sure where you think I argued that the civilians would win. My argument is that there would be a civil war because there would be a ton of armed people on both sides of the conflict. You bring up Gaza City like they're all finished clearing it out. It doesn't matter how well an army is trained or equipped, urban warfare is absolutely brutal and it would be in America too. You think that the US military could take a city like New York without heavy civilian resistance? Don't make me laugh.
To answer your question: Me and my buddies would likely be the first to die.
It's the exact war we spent 20 years fighting already. You don't want your face on a network chart in a Battalion ops center. And the military wouldn't split down the middle. It's 50/50 blue/red but most of the conservatives in the military are wholly unimpressed with the far right. You shoot at an American and call it a war? They're going to respond negatively.