German security officials believe the Kremlin is laying the groundwork for a potential large-scale conventional war with NATO by the end of the decade
German security officials believe the Kremlin is laying the groundwork for a potential large-scale conventional war with NATO by the end of the decade
German security officials believe the Kremlin is laying the groundwork for a potential large-scale conventional war with NATO by the end of the decade.
German media outlets Süddeutsche Zeitung, WDR, and NDR also cite the report, noting that Russian President Vladimir Putin appears intent on testing NATO’s Article 5 guarantees. The alliance’s mutual defence clause obliges member states to come to one another’s aid if attacked. The assessment suggests Putin may seek to challenge how seriously that commitment would be honoured.
Wouldn’t Russia have to suddenly produce a lot more young men who are still alive to invade any more countries?
If only they had an asset in the US who could provide those.
No, it'd have to ensure France. Which means if they struck France could nuke Moscow. If. Anyone in Russia gave a shit, they'd slaughter Putin's family now.
How else do you save those lives
If Russia gets ambiguously belligerent with a small NATO ally (someplace like Lithuania) and everyone's suddenly saying "we have to go to war over THAT?" and American corporate media starts framing the use of article 5 as escalatory, that's your cue that phase 1 is complete.
This is specifically why France developed their nuclear arsenal under De Gaulle.
De Gaulle believed that the Americans could not be trusted to defend Europe, he was afraid that if the Russians would attack Europe with nuclear weapons the US would not defend us.
And oh how right he was.
America is already out of the question and I think most politicians in Europe are finally seeing that. But the problem runs much deeper still. With the US out of the picture, will Madrid declare war on Russia if they send little green men to a border village in Latvia?
Most politicians are seeing that now but I wonder how many of them will remember these terrifying developments as soon as another guy sits in the white house. They were way too eager to cozy up to Biden after the first 4 terrible years of Trumpism. We shouldn‘ve learned our lesson then and we should learn our lesson now. Once and for all.
Danzig or war situation.
I really hope our politicians are not THAT dumb..... Hope is what we have
Stupid or not, that's the playbook to watch for. Don't give Russia an inch on article 5, or they'll use it to undermine the whole alliance.
Yes. They are that dumb. Every day there’s some fresh stupidity they come up with. Seriously, that moron is talking about invading Canada and seizing Greenland and there’s no massive outcry in D.C. to impeach or even remove him for such absurd goals?
YES. They ARE that stupid.
Yeah, imagine invoking article 5 just over a handful of buildings....
Aaahaha heh hmm ahem err yes
America is going to be balls deep in greenland and europe will not go to war over THAT.
If the EU won't consider themselves to be at war when the part of the EU defensive pact zone that is called Greenland is invaded, they're losing all credibility both internally and externally. Why would the EU defend Finland or the Baltics or Cyprus? Why would the EU organize against foreign powers funding violent rebellions inside EU territory (similar to how Russia funded Transnistria or the US funded the contras in Nicaragua)?
There is no better red line for France to launch their nukes than the invasion of Greenland. As seen with Russia, any grace given to cult of personality dictators only emboldens them and their worshipers. The only fair response to madman theory is to call the 'insane' administration's bluff and let the people who don't want them and their families to become radioactive piles of ash take the responsibility of defying insane orders.
europe will not go to war over THAT.
Yep. Here's a fun possible timeline:
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US takes over greenland. Europe won't respond militarily, but will cut off most ties to 'murika, and the US government will be like "why would europe be so mean to us, we were only trying to keep them safe from Russia and China?!".
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Europe won't pivot too hard to China/India, but they'll become preferred trading-partners. EU will become the bastion of actual Democracy.
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China will take that whole debacle as a green light to take Taiwan, or just re-taking manchuria (and keep taking bites out of Russia until they have reached the arctic). I honestly don't think they'll waste energy on Taiwan. Their military build-up and posturing towards Taiwan is probably just a ruse to lull Russia into a false sense of security.
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Russia will throw a hissyfit (threaten nukes, fail to deliver, and get fucked on the ground/air/sea). The US will try to come to their aid under the guise of stopping the "yellow threat" or whatever. That'll eventually fizzle out as the US devolves into a civil war (that will hopefully be over quickly, but will probably make the US truly isolationist for at least 50 years). Europeans might lament the aggression of China in public, but will privately go "fuck yeah get 'em".
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The Russian federation will collapse and splinter, and the rest of the 21st century will be a mess of global instability and the odd rogue van-borne nuke going off here and there, because swamp-troglodytes infested with a mongol khanate mindset (muscovy) should never have had nukes in the first place.
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I like how you think.
I don't particularly
Salami slicing all the way to London.
I hope Putin dies before that. And in such a personal regime his dead and the consequent fight for power could lead to big changes in Russia.
So let's hope Zelensky was right, and it's sooner than later.
His replacement is going to have to do something big to legitimize their rule
They barely could handle a war with small Ukraine, a full scale war with NATO is a no-go; and I'm quite certain Putin won't live that long
They’ll make it ✨ inconvenient✨ for people.
Sabotaging water sources (already practiced this in Finland), power stations (happened in Sweden), cutting undersea cables.
Way too many people are willing to let other people die rather than be inconvenienced.
Presidents have access to the best medical resources, and Putin seems to be in fine shape. He could live 10 more years. I'm saying that in the hope of a pleasant surprise.
Clearly, Putin underestimated Ukraine at the beginning of his invasion. But Russia can maintain the war against Ukraine for a long time to come.
Putin has no other choice: the entire Russian economy is dependent on war and armaments and would collapse if peace were concluded. Putin could no longer control his country without an external enemy.
Hence his narrative of the "Nazis" who must be fought in Ukraine (and soon on other borders (see Suwalki Gap)). This narrative of the Nazis ties in with the russian history of the Great Patriotic War, and this resonates with the Russian population. Putin is building a sequel to WWII, with renewed external threats, and the people are receptive to that.
Therefore, Putin is not at all interested in a peace treaty. And the conflict with NATO countries has already begun: the severed power cables and data cables in the Baltic Sea and the attacks on our information systems should have been regarded as acts of war from their beginning. The threat is there NOW. And Europe and NATO must build up strength.
Clearly, Putin underestimated Ukraine at the beginning of his invasion. But Russia can maintain the war against Ukraine for a long time to come.
Barring help from the US, I would be shocked if they don't have hyperinflation within 15 months. Maybe they can keep going through that, or maybe not.
Kremlin believed that Ukraine was a country that would fall to their knees, bend over and happily join them.
Now they are taking their time and bomb civilians, infrastructure.
They are taking their time. This is not an inability. This is a deliberate breaking of Ukraine's back.
Painting russia as unable to take over Ukraine by force is also false. They could throw enough meat to take over. Without blinking an eye.
Ask yourself. What is more beneficial? Ukraine partisants that keep sabotaging them after a violent takeover? Or disappointed and frustrated Ukraine after it slowly collapsed?
There were SS groups that consisted of volunteers from the conquered countries.
Never discredit an enemy. It serves no one but them.
Thank you for reminding me to block lemm.ee with your sad propaganda
Not surprised. The level of European alarm about the Russian threat being real has been greater than what could have been sustained without there being secret direct evidence.
Here's hoping when he does that and immediately starts to lose, he doesn't decide to end the world.
Based on intel from my MI buddies, most of Putin's nukes are probably nonfunctional. They tried to test one not long ago and it blew up, taking out the entire launch facility.
Russia's nukes are more or less a bluff.
This is an incredibly dangerous assumption. According to the Federation of American Scientists Russia has a stockpile of 4489 warheads of which some 1674 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles.[1] A large part of these warheads might be defective but realistically you only need a handful of working ones. Russia also has the necessary material and infrastructure to keep their warheads in working order.[2] So while their capabilities compared to the USSR are greatly diminished there is no reason to assume that Russias nukes are all in non-working condition.
[1] https://fas.org/publication/nuclear-notebook-russian-nuclear-weapons-2023/
[2] https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002-10/features/breakdown-breakout-us-and-russian-warhead-production-capabilities
Checks out. Got to capitalise on having his asset installed in the highest office of the US before things risk stabilising.
Russia can't even take over Ukraine and they'll take on entire NATO? Even if we exclude USA from it there is just no chance. Only if dumbass Trump collaborates with Russia to attack NATO together. That would be WW3 then...
They're already quite successful in hybrid warfare against NATO and EU.
Probing NATO's security guarantees doesn't mean taking it on fully. It means testing out how far you can go without them fully committing with military.
There’s this old saying that goes something like: "The European Airforce could beat Russia any day of the week - as long as they don’t have to do it the next week as well."
Meaning, the most pressing problem are our ammunition stockpiles. If you research that you’ll quickly see how bad the situation is in the EU currently. The Bundeswehr could, according to top generals, not stay in a fight for more than one or two weeks before running out of artillery shells, missiles and bombs.
Then there’s also the issue of lacking infrastructure, the absence of a unified command structure in Europe and with the withdrawal of the US, also a lack of strategic capabilities (awacs, satellite data, military intelligence, air tankers, heavy lift helicopters, …).
The Bundeswehr could, according to top generals, not stay in a fight for more than one or two weeks before running out of artillery shells, missiles and bombs.
You should read these claims with the same amount of nuance you use on claims like "Russia runs out of tanks/missiles/shells".
What they mean is "we can sustain a full-on, large scale offensive at optimal supply for two weeks, before we need to scale to a lower operational pace and stockpile material for our individual operations."
No military ever has enough, Russia "ran out" a few days into their offense, and yet they've been fighting for years.
the absence of a unified command structure in Europe
Eh, NATO high command exists just fine. Sure, it would be headed by the 2nd in command, but it works.
also a lack of strategic capabilities (awacs, satellite data, military intelligence, air tankers, heavy lift helicopters, …).
Yeah, Europe has a terrifying lack of enablers, but the reason for that is, apart from intelligence, is that European militaries aren't prepared for, or want to be prepared for, large scale offensive power projection away from home.
You can drive a truck from Gibraltar to Talin in Estonia in 48 hours. A train takes slightly longer, though I imagine clearing the railways is a lot easier under martial law.
Europe only has one good wing of tanker/transport planes, but we have hundreds and hundreds of airfields, and you don't need much mid-air refueling in a defensive war where everyone has capital cities in easy jet range.
The lack of airborne radar and satellites is MUCH worse for Europe than any other enablers.
https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/europa-krieg-szenarien-bnd-bundeswehr-li.3227229
translation
Germany's supreme soldier is convinced that Russia is preparing for a great war. Even after a possible ceasefire in Ukraine, Germany has no time “to take a deep breath”, says the Inspector General of the Bundeswehr, Carsten Breuer. Russia continues to upgrade and has doubled the number of soldiers compared to pre-war times. The Russian military structure is clearly against the West. Therefore, an end to the war on Ukraine will not lead to “we have peace again on the European continent,” he said in the talk show “Maischberger” recently.
This coincides with the assessment of Jörg Schmitt, the deputy head of the investigative department of the Süddeutsche Zeitung. Together with colleagues from WDR and NDR, he was able to evaluate the situation analyses of the BND and the Bundeswehr. By the end of the decade, Russia could create the conditions for a large-scale conventional war against NATO, regardless of the war in Ukraine.
According to these sources, Moscow could try to test the Nato with various scenarios, says Schmitt. For example, by provocations in the Baltic region or in the Arctic. Vladimir Putin is concerned with exploring the US's responsiveness and assistanceUSA.
What is the size of the army in men/woman for Russia? Given the last 3 years, their demographic should be impacted overall, isn’t it?
People who follow this subject have been talking about it as a crisis before the invasion even began. Now it's being described as "demographic collapse". They have remarkably low birth rates, an ageing population, xenophobia issues, and few friendly nations from which to borrow workers. I saw one headline that they've begun trying to bribe young ladies to have children. I believe I've seen Putin on record saying he sees demographics as one of his biggest issues, but his policies belie a more cynical stance. It is likely that Russia will continue to decline throughout the century, and in geopolitical terms they are positioned to eventually become a client state of some sort, likelier than not beholden to China.
It is definitely impacted but you also need to consider how indoctrinated and thoroughly militarized the younger generations are at this point. Russia might not have good birth rates, but their children are forced to learn marching in formation early on (I think it was at kindergarten level) and practice with wooden rifle mockups.
To me this sound like propaganda to justify military spending. Stockpiling weapons benefits authoritarian governments and rich people.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures
The numbers speak for themself.