German security officials believe the Kremlin is laying the groundwork for a potential large-scale conventional war with NATO by the end of the decade
German security officials believe the Kremlin is laying the groundwork for a potential large-scale conventional war with NATO by the end of the decade
German security officials believe the Kremlin is laying the groundwork for a potential large-scale conventional war with NATO by the end of the decade.
cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/59867996
German media outlets Süddeutsche Zeitung, WDR, and NDR also cite the report, noting that Russian President Vladimir Putin appears intent on testing NATO’s Article 5 guarantees. The alliance’s mutual defence clause obliges member states to come to one another’s aid if attacked. The assessment suggests Putin may seek to challenge how seriously that commitment would be honoured.
Elsewhere on Lemmy today;
Russia has depleted its tank stocks: the industry is not covering combat losses
Both of these cannot be true.
Well they can both be true, It just depends on Putin's mental state.
There was a rumor going around that he is dying and he is basically just doing this to try and make a name for himself, he will rebuild the USSR and it will stand for a thousand years as him as its founding father, and all that rubbish. Of course it's impossible for that to happen, but if he's dying anyway why not try?
He has definitely made a name for himself. Can we just tell him it's positive and let him die so that the rest of the world can move on?
Soon to be seen on the battlefield: Reinforced, armored attack-Ladas, with turrets mounted on the roof.
Honestly, I believe Europe needs to go on the offensive, we need a single unified offensive against Moscow with the intent of crippling the KGB and arresting Putin. They are both too dangerous to be left to their own devices.
With what? I read yesterday they were not able to keep up with the losses from just fighting the ukraine.
American tanks :(
I wish I wasn't so sure you were right.
At least nato will know all the weaknesses.
Take out putin now and set the stage for a world at "peace" with humanity's eye back on a civilized future.
Problem is the people waiting to take over from Putin. They're not at all nice.
Take them out first so it looks like Putin is doing it.
So I just looked into the numbers quickly and am probably off by a bit
NATO has 3.2m active military personnel and 2.2m in reserve
Russia has 1.5m active and 2m reserve
BUT, American forces make up 1.3m of NATOs active and 800k reserve
If I were to randomly combine the American army with Russia rather than NATO for no particular reason,
NATO would have 1.9m active 1.4m reserve and the Axis-sorry I mean Russia and America would have 2.8m active 2.8m reserve...
Maybe this is a suicidal plan, Putin is going to die and wants to take the world with him. From what we know about him, he is megalomaniacal and sadistic enough to want something like this.
He must also be counting on the United States being out of NATO by then, maybe Trump will even send some soldiers to help his Russian allies.
Just based on Trump's previous administration I'm confident that if he actually tried to do that it would cause serious arguments between the military and the executive branch. The military already decided to pretty much ignore him when he was going on in his last term about nuclear weapons, fortunately it never came up.
The number of personnel won't really matter here past a threshold. Looking at Ukraine Russian war it's clear most of the fighting will be done with suicide drones, ones that can be produced en mass by any country more or less.
Considering that Putin got his ass absolutely beat by a small country using second hand and surplus military hardware he'd have to be an absolute moron to pick a fight with NATO. Literally the only card he has to play is nukes and that's kind of an all or nothing sort of move. If nukes are off the table any concerted push by NATO is going to be mopping up in moscow within a few months.
That's also assuming the US doesn't get serious about it, but considering Putin's puppet in the Whitehouse there's a pretty good chance the US would quit NATO and so wouldn't factor in. Even without the US though Russia has demonstrated the rest of NATO is far more than sufficient to handle Russia.
Poland + Ukraine is enough to practically destroy Russia.
Honestly I really hope putin just croaks over and dies at this point, the old fuck has practically killed endless amounts of his own people just for land. He can't use the excuse of "Hur dur NATO is encroaching on my borders via Ukraine" because Finland is in NATO now thanks to his stupidity.
He's gambling with WW3 with a high chance of losing it.
And he can't keep America under his grasp forever, by the end of the decade trump could lose the election or get couped by anyone.
Redo the calculations with the USA fighting on Russia's side, and things start to look different.
Trump seems to be consolidating to focus on Iran (and it's allies) and China. He's not going to fight Europe. If anything, he'll try to get them to help by threatening NATO membership or something.
Then again he's going on with cable cutting and other idiocies. I'm not sure some kind of stupid "test run" could be ordered by him, like attacking one of the Baltic countries or Finland.
If the war stops BTW then his days are probably numbered so maybe he'll need some stupid war just to stay in power/alive.
10yrs? That long? Is Putin really that healthy? He looks like he has Cushing’s.
End of the decade is 31-12-2029, which is about 4.7 years away, not 10.
10 years would be "within/in/over a decade".
Me too, I believe that. Anyone with half a brain believes that.
for what?
King of the Ash Pile is a cool title
Honest question. If Russia nuked Krakow, would America retaliate with nukes? Would France? England?
I don't think so. It's not even clear nato would declare conventional war.
Mutually assured destruction only works for countries with nukes. Am alliance is no real deterance.
You are being downvoted but you are asking a very legitimate question.
If Russia nuked a NATO country, what would really happen ?
Would the US respond ? It's extremely uncertain, especially with the recent election of space Karen and cheetos.
Would France or the UK respond ? It's a big question and a big discussion is happening currently in Europe.
France nuclear doctrine states that their nuclear arsenal will be used of France's "vital interests" are at stake. Is Europe part of France's vital interest ?
France will because it's article 42 of the EU.
Bunch of rag outlets fearmongering. No way Russia will attack NATO which has nukes.
If Russia knows the USA won't respond, and may even help, this may work differently. It would take a lot to get any NATO country to fire a nuke, especially if they didn't have US support, and Russia knows this.
Lol, imagine thinking the USA and Russia would be on opposite sides when we have multiple Russian assets in the White House. And in Congress. And probably in the supreme court.
France has nukes too.
One day Russia is flat broke and losing the war.
The next they are preparing to invade Europe with their epic weapons stockpile
My opinion is if they have any proof of this just declare article 5 now and attack them before they are prepared.
Waiting for Putin strikes me as stupid just get organised and crush them as brutally as possible.
Article 5 states that an armed attack against one member will be treated as an attack against all members.
There has been no armed attack against a member state.
Correct, they would have to use the infrastructure attacks
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Baltic_Sea_submarine_cable_disruptions
They can’t use article 5 preemptively
Yeah, Europe ain't ready either.
