UK government considers preparing for scenario of unexpected collapse of Russian Federation
UK government considers preparing for scenario of unexpected collapse of Russian Federation � The Time
As they mention in the article they anticipated a much slower collapse and likely prepared for that. But at the rate it’s currently going, it’s quite astounding. The fragmentation and internal strife in Russia are certainly not over.
I did read one article that made a reference to this more being an “end of the beginning” rather than the “beginning of the end”. Which I agree with. It hasn’t collapsed the federation overnight, but it’s certainly weakened it a hell of a lot.
Living in Russia, I have mixed feelings about this slow controlled collapse TBF.
For Russia itself, maybe things being over after a couple of months (or years) of civil war starting in 1999 would be better.
But for everybody else, of course, there are bigger risks associated with that. Not really something nuclear even, just economically less pleasant.
Are you in Russia right now? How are things over there?
I really hate reportage like this. Every government, even seemingly incompetent ones like the current crop in the UK, have hundreds or thousands of contingency plans for things of wildly varying likelihood. This is just one of those things.
This is just as informative as those articles that say eating sugar triggers the same receptors as cocaine. Yes it's true, but there aren't that many reward mechanisms in the brain, so a lot of shit hits those same receptors.
It's data and it's true, but it's not useful information.
We have a plan to invade literally every country and for if that country invades us that is updated regularly. I always found that kind of funny but it isn't shocking.
Why would it be funny?
Having a plan for an unlikely event is not funny if having such a plan is your job. There are plenty of people who should do exactly that.
Because not having a plan for an unlikely event that bloody happens is, eh, negatively funny.
Consider the source. Pretty sure this is propaganda.
It's like saying the police is preparing for thieves robbing the bank or the fire department preparing for a wildfire. It's part of their job and it would be stranger not to have a contingency plan.
After the events that just strengthened it? Absurd. Anything to avoid actually feeding people, addressing the 33% of children currently in poverty or the constantly declining living standards we have I suppose.
EDIT: God this place has gone south since all the redditors came over.
But did the coup really fail? Prigozhin simply called it off after !another! country negotiated a solution. The coup in Turkey failed because of, seemingly, Erdogan being too powerful and the people loving him. In Russia it failed because of Lukashenko intervening and Prigozhin calling it off. Putin does not look strong currently.
Of course he called it off lmao. He had NO SUPPORT. He was totally isolated.
Compare this to the gang of eight when the communists attempted but failed a coup and you'll see what a real powerful coup attempt looks like. That failed.
Look at who supported and took part in that and compare it to Prigozhin's isolated attempt with absolutely no support, no allies, nothing, while every single other political and military force in the country backed the state.
Prigo grossly overestimated his position. He thought he would get supporters once it was launched, he got absolutely nothing and he backed out at the earliest opportunity with a guarantee of his life being protected in Belarus. This was accepted by state because the alternative would have been a disaster for Russia with thousands of dead in a battle for Rostov and defence of the outskirts of Moscow.
The whole thing reeks of a fake operation now that Lukashenko was the solution AND Biden making a statement that US isn't involved. Neither states are trustworthy narrators. Who knows
The manner in which a coup is stopped makes all the difference. It only enhances the position of the government if the government is seen to deal with the coup attempt promptly and effectively. If the government is not seen to deal with it effectively, then even if the coup is ultimately unsuccessful, it undermines the government.
In this case, Putin was not seen to deal with the coup effectively. Wagner was able to secure the Southern Military District headquarters - the main operational HQ of the war in Ukraine - in Rostov-on-Don with essentially no opposition, then drive most of the way to Moscow with only minor skirmishes along the way. If we believe the widely-disseminated reports, then seven Russian military aircraft were lost to Wagner actions, but only one Wagner truck was lost in return. Putin was not seen or heard from for a long time, and reports surfaced that he had flown to St. Petersburg, and when he did appear, his message was not particularly decisive. When the coup was abandoned, it was done not through force, or by Putin publicly facing down Wagner like Yeltsin did in 1991. It was abandoned due to some back-room deal, brokered by Lukashenko of all people, the details of which have not been made public.
The Russian government's internal security apparatus appears incompetent because it did not consider Wagner a threat, even though Prigozhin had been telegraphing his intentions for days (and probably planning it for months). The Russian military appears weak and overstretched, because it could not protect its operational HQ by force. Putin appears weak because he disappeared at the crucial moments, and large parts of Russia appeared sympathetic to Prigozhin even if they weren't prepared to directly take part. The image of Putin being the supreme ruler in charge of everything looks pretty suspect at this point, and Russians know it because most of the events happened live on Russian state TV.
Putin has a long history of wriggling out of difficult situations, and he might still pull things out of the bag, but I think this is the beginning of the end for him.
The Russian government’s internal security apparatus appears incompetent because it did not consider Wagner a threat, even though Prigozhin had been telegraphing his intentions for days (and probably planning it for months). The Russian military appears weak and overstretched, because it could not protect its operational HQ by force. Putin appears weak because he disappeared at the crucial moments, and large parts of Russia appeared sympathetic to Prigozhin even if they weren’t prepared to directly take part. The image of Putin being the supreme ruler in charge of everything looks pretty suspect at this point, and Russians know it because most of the events happened live on Russian state TV.
This is all "appears" "appears" "appears". You are hung up on appearances. You seem to think that if they just appear a certain way to people then that will magically change the balances of factional power in the country.
Liberals have this bizarre idea about where power comes from. You all seem to believe that the population of the country has power, that if the government simply appears weak then it will magically result in the population doing.... Something... And then the government will be overthrown and the war will be won!
Power is derived by those in hierarchical positions in a country to command various things within their positions to occur. And when enough people all align alongside one another and command things to happen together, if the related organisations follow those commands, they hold power.
I acknowledge in my other comments that this is embarrassing (which is quite a similar interpretation to you saying it hurts appearances). But the bottom line is how it affects power in the country. What factions exist and who those factions are aligning themselves behind.
This attempt did not result in anything like a weakening of the state or Putin. It consolidated all the sources of power in the country behind Putin, into statements of support and actions that back it up.
Putin has a long history of wriggling out of difficult situations, and he might still pull things out of the bag, but I think this is the beginning of the end for him.
By what mechanism?
So, the two conflicting armies of Russia shooting at each other, the minister of defence not anticipating this although he instigated it, the president running away, both (minister and president) not addressing the nation in a speech for 3 days after the incident, and the revolutionary leaving on his own account without suffering any substantial losses?
The Russian army bombarded Wagner camps, starting the whole affair, Wagner shot down helicopters of the Russian army during the march. Do you think that will strengthen the ties between Wagner troops and the Russian army to cooperate better in the future? Wagner didn't face any notable resistance the first cities they passed through, and that is a show of strength for Putin? Yeah, no. I don't think that makes much sense, sorry.
Putin will have to go full berserker mode now to portrait some strength, make an example of the mayors of those cities, axe the minster of defence for being obviously incompetent here, and arrange a polonium-tea or something for Prigozhin. And while this might help him save his face as strong leader, it will probably lead to more resistance from others.
Why are liberals this delusional?
Mayors? You think 2 mayors not acting quickly enough on shaky unknown information within just hours shows that the state is weak?
The issue is that there was NO support for Prigo. He was totally isolated. Not one single person in a military or political position of power came to his side as he had hoped. Every single actual source of power in the country (and outside of it) backed Putin.
Compare this to 1991 when the communists attempted a coup in the soviet union to (correctly) prevent its eventual dissolution. They had the Gang of Eight which included:
This was a REAL and powerful coup attempt with real political and military support. A true split in the country.
They failed, and no further attempt would occur afterwards, it strengthened the state and the opposition forces that sought to end socialism in the country and bring about the economic hell of Shock Therapy.
You can not possibly argue that this mutiny (calling it a coup compared to past failures is laughable), by one man with literally zero allies, which ended in a single day has done anything other than strengthen the state by showing everyone how there is no political or military division. Not to mention Wagner is being disbanded as well so that only brings that chapter to a close.
You people need to get more realistic.
If you're preparing for it, is it really that "unexpected"...?
You can be prepared for all kinds of things you aren't expecting. For example you could get occupational disablement insurance while not expecting to ever use it.
Maybe they're preparing for it so it won't be unexpected
My body is ready
The anticipatory poop challenge part deux.
My grandpa was Ukrainian but considered himself Russian and worshipped Putin. I really wonder how this would have affected him. I honestly am partly glad he isn't alive. It would really shake him.
He thought of Putin as the person who saved Russians from the fall of the USSR. Putin has done a lot lately to undermine the untarnishable image he had with certain kinds of people.
I really miss my grandpa now. He introduced me to a lot of new concepts and though his ideas were wrong they weren't out dated or stupid.
I never would have done the things I've done if not for my grandpa and how his ideas shaped me.
Pravda really fell off
Plan for a possible possible eventuality? That'll be a first.
I assume there was a plan that Cameron got rid of because reasons and now they can't find the PDF so they'll have to do it again.
Someone couldn't rotate it so they just deleted it and pretended it never came.
Unexpected? I thought everyone was already expecting
Regardless of the article, using the term "unexpected" is kind of naive at this point.
I suppose it's unexpected because Putin would rather bomb his own citizens than allow a change of status quo.
Am I missing something or did nothing in the article match the title?
I thought it was; maybe the link you got was to the front page, or something? The article was mostly about how Prigozhin's attempted coup (or whatever it was) surprised Western leaders, and a bunch of speculation about how the West is scrambling to prepare contingemcy plans. So the one I read seemed to match.
However, I think it was a fluff article, with little substance. Prigozhin has been agitating for weeks, and I seriously doubt MI6 (or the CIA) was surprised by his actions. Or that nobody has a contingency plan for chaos in Russia. Putin's a dictator, and when dictators die, it's rarely a peaceful transition of power.
It's Pravda, literally the propaganda arm of the Ukrainian Government.
"Some people in UK government maybe consider thinking about doing something because something happened". Much better title.
I sincerely do not understand why...
Maybe it's your attitude and insulting manner? None of your arguments required your comments about "liberals". Given those, it's disingenuous to attribute the downvotes to your "facts".
I know mexico is really worried....so they drink tequila and move on.
so they drink tequila and move on
based
Aw shit here we go again
Honestly I doubt that Putin will fall from power that easily. He seems to take nots of precautions and he has lots of friends
Looks old now. He will probably die anyway.
Even if there's no coup/revolution/he doesn't get assassinated/etc.
He's 70, and very possibly not in the best health. Statistically it wouldn't be very surprising if he dropped dead of natural causes at any moment. Technically he's already a small anomaly of a Russian male just because he has lived as long as he has since their average life expectancy is currently something like 65 (which is admittedly skewed very young by a whole lot of stuff like drinking, drug use, suicide, and being shipped off to Ukraine) And even if he beats all odds and lives another 30 years it still shouldn't be unexpected for him to just decide to step down and retire at some point. Shit, if I had a fraction of the money and assets he has, I'd have called it quits a long time ago and disappeared from the public view.
And when he goes, no matter how he goes, there's going to be a power vacuum that needs to be filled and a whole lot of assholes jockeying for position. I won't pretend to know how that will go, maybe there will be all-out civil war, maybe just a handful of the right people will fall out of windows or drink polonium tea or just get disappeared, maybe there will be a major economic collapse and a rise in crime rates, maybe everything will just be hunky-dory and it really was just Putin holding everything back and Russia will enter a new age of enlightenment (it will probably not be that last one)
In their place i would rather prepare for scenario of unexpected collapse of United Kingdom.
To be fair, it's not exactly an unexpected scenario.
I would even say, desired.
Who says they have not prepared for that?
Considering their preparations for other things, like brexit or covid i would say LOL.
UK politicians never really seem prepared for anything tbh
Very unlikely scenario. Expected collapse on the other hand...
I mean, collapse of Russia is something very much expected in Russia by many people since 1993.
What makes it less expected is that it hasn't happened in 30 years, though.