What will MS do when Linux becomes a serious threat to their monopoly ?
Will they lobby for laws that prohibit Linux or make it difficult to install? What actions might they take in the future?
I'd wager they have enough resources to stave it off for as long as possible, and when they can't do that anymore they will have a strategy for making money off of their "services" in the linux space.
Microsoft is part of the cabal at this point. Businesses give it money because they're expected to.
I believe they just don't care, since not only is Windows not very profitable anymore, the real money is at businesses. So as long as they sell licenses to businesses (business laptops, etc), but also GitHub Enterprise (yes, Micro$oft also owns GitHub) Microsoft earns enough money that way. And also think cloud (Azure)..
My guess is therefor that the focus on Windows isn't that big anymore. I just hope more companies and gaming devs/publishes also push native binaries towards Linux.
not only is Windows not very profitable anymore, the real money is at businesses.
Hear me out, this is exactly why they care. Windows as a product isn't profitable anymore, but as a market share it is. Apple has always enjoyed their locked down ecosystem and Google is trying to completely block side loading on devices we already largely don't have control over the bootloader. It's no secret Microsoft has been seething with jealousy for years.
https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide
You're a soulless corporate ghoul, how do you make those numbers work for you? Why do you think they have the absolute gall to tell you to throw your computer out and get one that supports TPM 2.0? Why do you think there are still so many people willing or not that will swallow that bitter pill that's Windows 11?
I'm not trying to call you out in particular here or anything, but I think it's foolish to assume they don't
I agree with you.
Everyone who is saying that windows isn't profitable or no longer an important part of microsoft's business strategy is just a parrot succumbing to the snowball effect.
Yes, i bet they also think what is used by most people permeates upward i.e. if most use win as young companies will pivot to win for work.
Agreed
I think Windows is primarily a development environment for Xbox, just as macOS is primarily a development environment for iOS Everything else of value from Microsoft is available via the web/cloud (even Office)
Eventually, Microsoft might even decide that it's more profitable to abandon Windows completely
Embrace, extend, extinguish.
SQL Server runs on Linux. Azure supports Linux. The next step is to extend into their own distro, get everyone using it, then drop support for mainstream Linux.
Will it work? Maybe. They'll have to make Microsoft Linux more attractive than Debian and Red Hat.
Microsoft already lost the home OS battle when people switch their main devices to smartphones with iOS or Android.
The desktop has been losing market for a while. I feel Windows is already under serious threat (if not already in the minority) when you think about all the devices that mainstream audiences orbit around (phones, tablets, portable consoles, etc), often using the Linux kernel. Only about a third of most website traffic comes from desktops.
Many of the people who frequently use Windows desktop do so because of their job, and often avoid using it outside of work as much as possible, since it feels like.. well, work.
Microsoft has been desperately trying to appeal to those other bigger sectors of the pie and has failed every time.
PC Gaming was one sector they had advantage on, yet that has already started to crumble thanks to Valve. I feel that MS will just try to push for integrating their xbox with Windows OS more and more...
I feel it's a battle with many fronts, since PCs have many uses.. so MS is likely to run their typical spiel: copy what the competition are doing and try to centralize/integrate it with their OS in a way that gives them an advantage, as they are famous for doing.
Another sector they can do this is with the WSL (Windows Subsystem for Linux)... they could turn Windows into a frontend for running Linux apps... so if Linux apps became popular, they could try to advertise Windows as the "best" way to run Linux software without losing the full first party support of legacy Windows software.
Exactly what they're doing right now. What cable companies did. What every dominant business does when something better starts to eat their lunch.
Become increasingly abusive and scummy towards the customers who are left, because they're either too deeply ingrained, spineless or lazy to change and they've already self-selected.
Maybe requiring locking bootloader "for safety" on desktop computers if they want to run windows 12
Not an option, at this point a somewhat big part of the people don't want to run windows 12 so do not care.
And vendors who agree could simply see they sells down since a, at this point large enough, percentage of the buyer prefer someone who don't agree.
It's mobile devices that are eroding Windows market share on desktops, not Linux.
Linux already dominates the server space, it runs the internet and super computing, but it will NEVER be a threat to Microsoft on desktops.
Never say never
I think it is clear that it's just a matter of time that a faster, more secure, free and open source operating system will win over a worse alternative.
The vast majority of desktop users don't give two flips about security, nor freedom, they don't even know what those things are and don't care to be informed.
I've even seen a few (on reddit) asking for Linux to support giving kernel level permissions to applications, so they can play a few videogames, they are fine with having rootkits on their PC, that's the level of "care" they have.
But that's ok, Linux is already a de-facto "monopoly" on the server side, the most important one, it doesn't need to win over also desktops.
Work with hardware and software vendors to break linux compatibility.
Which in the precise moment when Linux is a serious threat is not possible since there is no assurance that the hardware vendors would accept, given they now have an alternative.
They've been busy doing that for the past 20+ years. It's been an annoyance, but not really a deterrent.
They cannot do that to every manufacturer, as most of countries are incentivized to not dependent on American or any foreign product.
I can see China or European manufacturer will slowly move from Windows. At least China already learning the hard way from Android-Huawei relationship.
Some others have already said the "embrace, extend, extinguish" but here's my take on it. Pair it with Secure Boot and TPM 2.0
The reason I think this route is highly likely is because it plays well with uninformed consumers. To the untrained eye it looks like they're giving ground and actually allowing for broader support of their software while effectively gaining control over the environment once again and removing the biggest benefits of running FOSS on your system.
Also worth noting that they own Github, which puts them in a position to disrupt a huge amount of Linux infrastructure if they ever feel like it. They might also pull some weird move like trying to buy Canonical or something like that.
This is a good point. I've been trying to make it clear in a lot of my predictions that Microsoft doesn't want or even need full control, just enough. They don't even need to do anything particular here other than continue to manage github with their current level of incompetence.
Was trying to source an article here, wasn't there just an outage or some other major issue a few days ago? Anyways ...
Hear me out on this one "Microsoft Linux"
Yes exactly. Embrace and extinguish has always been Microsoft's strategy. They'll release their own distribution and either make it slower and more complicated than Windows, so that everyone thinks Windows is the better OS, or they'll make it a cloud OS like Chrome, requiring recurring payments to use Office 365 and everything else.
I see this as the most likely outcome as well. It's the preferred route, seen all of the place lately. Want to privatize a public service? Cripple the public service enough to "prove it doesn't work" to convince people privatization is the best option. I suspect most people would switch to Microsoft Linux over something "tech" sounding like Debian or Ubuntu. When the trial of their slowed down and crashy "Linux" comes to an end, Microsoft will offer an easy solution to switch back to Windows.
That's just neutered Ubuntu container
Some people including me maybe dont want Linux to become popular.
Can we please have something in this world that isnt ruined by the general population? They already ruined the internet -
What is this argument
Scientists really would prefer Linux to stay in the nerd realm.
pays even more to hardware manufacturers to add windows by default, and make drivers windows only.
Windows is only 12% of Microsoft's revenue, and between Mac, Linux and ChromeOS, it really doesn't have a monopoly anymore on desktop (about 70%). On top of that, desktop usage in general is decreasing, and is already less than 50% of all web traffic.
What I'm saying is that I think it's safe to say something else will likely "kill" Windows long before Linux ever becomes a serious threat to it.
Linux has been becoming a "serious threat" for 20+ years now. I'll wait.
Don't get me wrong I like Linux a lot. But if you step back and look objectively, it has a lot of issues trying to grow outside the hobby/enthusiast community for the desktop.
I think that linux has a couple of things that might help it grow outside its traditional niche that it hasn't in the past. Proton has been a major step forward in to the gaming scene. A lot of people are very unhappy about windows 11. The EU in particular is also investing in ways to get out from under American techs thumb due to the geopolitical landscape.
I don't have too high expectations personally but who knows.
They will adapt.
Embrace, extend, extinguish. They will become Linux.
In all seriousness, if you look into how windows manages its security now, it leverages virtualization to essentially run windows inside of a hypervisor. At some point in the future, the legacy windows kernel is going to just be another virtual machine running side by side with Linux and the hypervisor will probably run their HyperV tech on top of a Linux (compatible) kernel.
Then they will say that you need their version of Linux to run specific hardware and software.
EEE
Adapt and fight. Linux is the dominant OS for everything, so Windows started to support it (wsl) so they don't loose developers. Secure boot worked as a moat for a while and the MS monopoly on OS keys is still an obstacle. Linux works better on ARM than Windows, so obviously Qualcom Laptops have a locked down bootloader. They will continue to lock themselfes into the future with money and development resources.
Secure boot and anti-cheat.
That not an option. If Linux is a serious threat it means that a normal people could use it without any problem, with all the common software needed (Office, a browser and few other things).
At this point trying to lock down the PC to have the be able to run Windows is not really an option, people could simply choose to not use Windows anymore and be productive anyway.
Only problem are games, but it is probably solvable
Make a version of Office that works on Linux natively.
That works on their version of linux.
Why? Office is such shit.
It is (unfortunately) their primary foothold into the market. Microsoft also knows this which is why some many other projects at Microsoft have been killed and absorbed by the Microsoft office team. They have a cannabalistic corporate culture. Its clear that at Microsoft the only threat to Microsoft... Is Microsoft... No one else on the radar registers.
Well there is the 9/11 change that may be happening soon: https://techrights.org/n/2025/08/26/The_UEFI_9_11_Part_I_Introduction_to_Impending_Catastrophe_Micr.shtml
Its possible a LOT of linux machines wont work after this date.
Fortunately I'm safe from that bc right after I assembled my current PC (even before moving the distro to it; yes, moving, not "installing"), I entered BIOS and disabled secure boot, IPM 2.0 and pretty much everything Spyware related. Only then I booted Clonezilla and extracted from the backup image. Since I had done the same on the old PC in BIOS, that means my Arch was never installed with SB and IPM active.
On top of that the last update of BIOS nearly broke it, so I flashed it back to the more stable version the motherboard came with. And since I have no intention to update BIOS, I'm safe from all that trouble.
Hopefully people who use SecureBoot have plans in place
I just disabled SecureBoot on my end.
I use Secure Boot on all my machines but I just use my own keys with Foxboron's wonderful sbctl utility instead of the hacky shim/MOK method most distributions use.
Hopefully!
Another funny thing is that there is speculation because firmware developers...many not actually be checking the dates at all in some cases. Cause that would mean extra work. So its very possible this date comes and goes, nothing happens to cheap devices.
That was based on conversations im seeing in other forums. Not sure honestly.
Either way, we will find out soon!
My expectation: nothing. At least, nothing on the OS side. I don’t think windows is very important to microsoft strategically.
Nowadays, the way to capture audiences is not so much via a proprietary OS, but via proprietary apps.
And in that sense, microsoft is proceeding exactly as expected: more and more of the windows ecosystem either exists on the web, or is available on linux and macos too.
I can see a future where windows only exists for backwards compatibility, but otherwise:
So what does microsoft need to do once windows collapses in the desktop space? Imo not much, really. Those people and companies that are tied to microsoft products will still be. Only, they might be running them on linux.
Edit to add: I am gonna place a bet that we’re gonna see an official microsoft linux distribution by the end of 2035
An official Microsoft Linux distro has existed for a while now: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azure_Linux
There's more Linux than Windwoes VMs in Azure, I hear.
Fair, a desktop-oriented distro is what I meant :)
it never ceases to be mind boggling that IT in most institutions are still so closely married to windows when it's clear that the landscape has changed and it makes me suspect that they will be the last bastions of windows dominance.
Add more spyware, isn’t that the de facto mentality of Microsoft? Add more spyware so they can force you to buy more crap, al for the “greater good”. Oh yeah, and most likely try and take over secureboot with some Microsoft crap allowed only, “for to protect the children”.
I'm going to go with "nothing". They blend their numbers but I'd be willing to bet the amount of money they make selling direct licenses is tiny. (Tiny at their scale, I'd take it any day.) The whole OEM business isn't even huge to them. If they start losing the enterprise market, then I'm sure they would throw down, but you and everyone you know installing Linux would be fine. Have you noticed how easy it is to steal windows and how there seem to be very few repercussions? That says volumes about what they think the revenue potential of that market is..
They are already lobbying for stupid shit, and coordinating deals with manufacturers.
Desktop users (except for business) don’t make Microsoft any money, so they probably don’t care.
Honestly, ms won't do anything.
unofficial statement out of Microsoft have Linux VMs overtaking the Windows VMs in Azure.
Why should they worry about losing a once off $1100 sale of a Server 2025 license when they can sell you a 2 CPU 8Gb ram Azure VM for $150 a month? Or $113/m commited for 3 years ($4000 total)
Just my guess here, but...
The desktop/laptop sort of form factor is associated in people's minds with unlocked bootloaders. People expect to be able to install Linux on them if they want to. Tablets, game systems, and other sorts of consumer electronics, not so much. I'm thinking Microsoft will do what it can to push hardware manufacturers and the software industry as a whole more in the direction of the kinds of devices that consumers already expect to be locked down like tablets or game systems that are "streaming" game systems. And that way, the bootloader will prevent folks from switching to Linux.
Cry maybe
Damnit Jim I'm a doctor, not an actor
The question is also what would US government do. You miss the fact that windows-x86 complex is self supporting cornerstone of US soft and economic power, also spying. What will they do to prop up that monopoly?
When?
Their only chance there was the late 90s to early 2000s. MS is one company compared to the totality of mega corporations using Linux and MS also uses a lot of Linux. More money at play in the server market than the general desktop OS market. Linux is the server OS
The US government increasingly uses Linux. Other countries pick up Linux at a faster rate than the US. A higher percentage of people use MacOS today than 20 years ago
All out street warfare against Linux users! They'll be arming their army with AI laser guided missiles! The backdoored AI drones!