Denmark’s Defense Intelligence Service warns that Russia could launch a large-scale war in Europe within five years if NATO appears weak or divided, especially if the U.S. does not intervene.
The report outlines a timeline where Russia could attack a neighboring country within six months, escalate to a regional Baltic conflict in two years, and potentially engage NATO-wide by 2029.
The assessment comes as Trump pressures NATO members to increase defense spending and has suggested the U.S. might not defend allies who fail to meet financial commitments.
You have the remarkable ability to confidently navigate the world with a mind so barren of critical thought that even a Magic 8-Ball would outthink you in a debate.
I do not have an English translation but in this interview a lieutenant general of the German Bundeswehr says that they are observing that not all new supplies are being pushed to the Ukrainian front lines and instead new stockpiles are being created.
My personal expectation is that Putin will attempt one more push in Ukraine once mud season is over, take what he can get and then agree to another peace deal (Minsk 3 anyone?). He will then take some time to restructure and reinforce the military before again "coming to the aid of suppressed Russian minorities", this time in places like Georgia, Moldova or Armenia. Ukraine is off the table because they will use the time to reinforce as well.
Could be, who knows. Though the countries listed are not part of NATO and are weak. And at least in Moldova it's not easy as Russia doesn't border it and for Armenia they have to go through Georgia first.
Hey, it's just a quick special military operation to Kyiv, in and out in three days! Surely nothing can go wrong.
IIRC there was talk after it went south that the yes-men around Putin had made him believe that not only would Ukraine not fight back, but the people would join the Russian troops in celebration for being "liberated" and help them, and that's why they didn't even think that failure was a possibility.
Good point.
Ukrainians doesn't have that much of weapons and are heavily reliant on west. Except for drones, but at least some major parts are bought from other countries.
But yes, it would increase Russian military to some extent, though I doubt Ukrainians would be good Russian soldiers.
those people aren't going to join the russian army willingly.
The country will resemble european afghanistan. it will be one of the bloodiest insurgencies in history.
the only reason a Ukrainian would willingly join the russian army is because he's either a mentally handicapped traitor. or he's furious at how the West betrayed and used his country like a pawn.
The agency offers three scenarios that could occur if the Ukraine conflict stops or becomes frozen, working from the assumption that Russia does not have the capacity to wage war with multiple countries at the same time.
they had a wait and see attitude until the US election came
trump won, they wait and saw
they sat on their hands some more.
Russia's conventional military is cooked, but all they need to do is launch a few hundred missiles at Europe, and Europe will tear itself apart with countries refusing to honor Article 5, and bam. Fait accompli, NATO dissolves.
France and the UK’s nuclear arsenal is minuscule compared to the US stockpile.
And a lot of the nukes at NATO bases are on loan from the US, so if the US pulls out there will not be nearly as many bombs close to Russia.
Anyone insane enough to start a nuclear war may decide that absorbing a hundred or so nukes isn’t so bad when they have hundreds of Cold War era bunkers and thousands of their own nukes.
France and the UK’s nuclear arsenal is minuscule compared to the US stockpile.
You only need a few.
And a lot of the nukes at NATO bases are on loan from the US, so if the US pulls out there will not be nearly as many bombs close to Russia.
Both UK and France have nuclear armed subs, those are all that matter.
Anyone insane enough to start a nuclear war may decide that absorbing a hundred or so nukes isn’t so bad when they have hundreds of Cold War era bunkers and thousands of their own nukes.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say even Putin doesn't want to spend the rest of his life in a bunker.
The French strategy with nuclear bombs is not to wipe a country out of a map, but wiping out Moscow and Saint Petersburg (or New York and Washington DC for a USan example). The message is that you can kill us, but we will make sure that you are definitely crippled
This is about how quickly the Russian war machine and economy can rebuild their capability to attack again. IIRC the report by the Danish Intelligence Service assumes that the Ukraine war stops now and that Europe does not increase its defensive capabilities.
If Moscow perceives NATO as weak, Russia could be ready to wage a "large-scale war" in Europe within five years, the Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) has said.
They didn't say Russia will, they said Russia could. I feel like this is fearmongering to a certain extent. How is the war in Ukraine going for Russia? They're winning, sure, but they're fighting hard for every kilometer and it's costing them. I really don't think any other country is worth as much as Ukraine is from Russia's point of view.
I mostly agree with your points, but even the article title very clearly says 'could'.
Russia had been encroaching on Ukrainian borders for years before launching their full invasion, and I'm not aware of similar actions against other European nations. It may be fearmongering, but unifying and strengthening NATO is in an important step to take to prevent Putin from going even further. He is heading towards his latter years now, and he seems to like the idea of restoring the 'glory' of the USSR and showing the West how big and stronk Russia is.
Additionally, in a larger-scale war with other, better armed European nations, Russia might not hold back on using their nukes this time round.
People die but remain missing = no costs
They finance most of the equipment etc. themselves.
Laws are already being changed in the direction of forced child labor and I wouldn't be surprised if Putin brings forced rape into play if necessary.
So losses are manageable even with the junk equipment.
Ukraine is acting democratically... even the current convocation will do if age limits have to be constantly adjusted. Equipment either from abroad or financed from abroad.
Losses are not bearable
Europe, America and all democracies in the world
are sinking into unstable chaos due to Russia's propaganda machine. No more united action, etc. The majority of the population backing Russia is becoming an ever greater risk and the likelihood of civil war is increasing.
Etc.
So people who don't take this seriously, make fun of Russia, etc. have absolutely not grasped the seriousness of the situation. There are several ways of waging war... even without actively intervening in the events themselves.
Nazi Russia pact 2: America throws Europe to the wolves after creating its own role it now uses as an excuse to blackmail world peace and climate for lithium and hate because Mars Hateopia is no longer feasible in time for Elon-aloo.