Anyone @ Anyone @mander.xyz

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I wrote this comment in another thread, and it fits well also here.

The article says,

Beijing and Washington have been locked in a bitter trade war involving hefty tariffs during the second administration of US President Donald Trump, forcing Chinese exporters to pivot to other markets

Although this is true and it has certainly intensified the situation for China, the country had begun its trade diversion long before Trump's tariff conundrum. And the reason was not abroad but at home: it was China's weak domestic consumption as per a recent study by the European Central Bank (ECB).

It has found that the rise in China’s exports to the EU predates the latest tensions and coincides instead with the onset of weakness in demand at home in China, the ECB says.

In the fourth quarter of 2024 the average monthly value of domestic sales was around four times higher than total exports and over 28 times larger than exports to the United States. This suggests the pool of goods that could be redirected to the EU is much broader than trade data alone would suggest. Redirecting even a small share of domestic sales abroad could boost overall exports – including to the EU – more than a sizeable diversion of exports from the United States.

The ECB argues that the start of rising exports and slowing imports dates back to 2021, when China's crisis in its domestic real estate market - typically an import-sensitive sector - sharply curtailed household demand.

At the same time, state-imposed manufacturing investment created overcapacity in industries that would otherwise face market-driven constraints, which eventually resulted in fierce price wars in Chinese home markets forcing companies to seek relief in exports.

The ECB writes:

This has eroded profit margins and discouraged spending in a deflationary environment with significant labour slack – prompting firms to redirect sales toward foreign markets.This shift reflects the “vent-for-surplus” theory of international trade, which posits that a demand-driven decline in domestic sales generates excess capacity that can be redirected abroad. The mechanism assumes fixed investment in the short term, which is particularly relevant in China, where investment is often guided by central planning. To expand abroad, firms must gain competitiveness in foreign markets. They typically do so by reducing short-run marginal costs and prices, or by accepting narrower profit margins, and in some cases even losses. - [Emphasis mine.]

Russia's economy is in for a very rough long-term decline, according to practically all economists from within Russia and abroad, as Putin's war made the situation in the country even worse than it was before.

In 2023, one year after the invasion started, there was an interview with Natalia Zubarevich, a Professor of the Department of Economic And Social Geography of Russia at the Moscow State University, claiming that in Russia ‘there will be no collapses, but rather a viscous, slow sinking into Bbackwardness.' More than two years old, the interview is still highly accurate imho, and Ms. Zubarevich has foreseen everything so far.

Most economist also agree with your mentioned notion that Ukraine will get some help from the West to rebuild the country, and they may even be able to convince some Ukrainian refugees to return, and some migrants to settle in Ukraine.

The same is highly unlikely for Russia, though. Even long before the war, Putin's government led many experts to a devastating conclusion for the brain drain from the country reveals that the Kremlinʼs authoritarian modernization has failed and deepens Russia’s longer-term problems, as the Finnish Institute of International Affairs in 2019 wrote, for example:

It is estimated that 1.6 to 2 million people have emigrated from Russia during the nearly 20-year period of Vladimir Putinʼs rule. In the light of these figures, some researchers talk about the fifth wave of emigration in Russian history. Emigration has accelerated particularly since Putin began his third presidency in 2012, and in 2017, for example, an estimated 377,000 people moved out of Russia.

So there is hope for Ukraine, but I don't know of a single study that says the same about Russia.

EU producers of steel, aluminium, cement, etc. are already paying a fee for the emissions they produce. This is one reason why global trade is hopelessly distorted as only a few countries have a serious stance towards climate change. As this COP has shown, these are mainly countries form Europe, Latin America, and some Island countries. China as the world's worst polluter is clearly not among these countries as we see once again.

@m33@lemmy.zip

EU producers of steel, aluminium, cement, etc. are already paying a fee for the emissions they produce. This is one reason why global trade is hopelessly distorted as only a few countries have a serious stance towards climate change. As this COP has shown, these are mainly countries form Europe, Latin America, and some Island countries. China as the world's worst polluter is clearly not among these countries as we see once again.

donno if this is to make fun of lol party named trump or your mention of anti-propaganda.

Just look at OP's post history.

I don't pass by often here in this community. This is why I remember that OP posted this same report 6 days ago - and has now deleted it apparently only to repost it again (you can see my comment back then in my history, back then @schizoidman posted a link by Firstpost).

This is so ridiculous that you can only shake your head, but at least it fits to OP's (and feddit.org's?) anti-democratic propaganda feed.

What would you suggest instead?

What is our own artificially created oversupply?

Oh, yeah, what else is new in Europe?

Firstpost is a media outlet known for low-quality reports including misinformation and disinformation.

No, I shouldn't re-read with the context of what you said, because what you said is out of touch and has nothing to do with the study that you apparently didn't read.

This is likely why you engage in insults. I have no interest in a discussion like that.

What an absurdly weird framing of this study that makes it easy to infer that you didn't even click the link.

But India's Russian oil shipments are expected to slow starting in November after the U.S. sanctioned two major suppliers last month in an effort to end Moscow's war in Ukraine. This prompted Indian refiners to pause new orders and look for alternatives in spot markets.

I don't know why such headlines about India continuing to buy Russian crude are popping up frequently. This is short-term only.

India's top importer Reliance Industries Ltd, which has a long-term supply contract with Russia's Rosneft, has already announced it will stop taking Russian crude. And so have Mangalore Refinery, Petrochemicals Ltd (two other major refiners from India, both state-controlled) as well as HPCL-Mittal Energy, a joint venture of steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittal’s Mittal Energy and the Hindustan Petroleum Corporation.

All these companies will stop buying from Russia by the end of this quarter as by their own announcements. Indian refiners are increasing procurement from the Middle East, Latin America, West Africa, Canada, and the US.

This is already known for some time, you'd find many reports on web (I've even read posts about it here on Lemmy if I am not mistaken, but I am not sure about that).

Not just emission but a broader picture of climate actions:

• USA - critically insufficient
• China - highly insufficient
• EU - insufficient

These are the largest emitters, you'll find all others on the site.

China is ahead of the US, behind the EU and many other (Western and non-Western) countries (with almost no country or bloc is on track to reach the Paris agreement targets). These are simple facts. As the world's largest polluter, China should do much more than it does, but it seems there is not even a willingness to do so.

I won't comment on your accusation of being biased. I am not long here on Lemmy, but the reaction here if and when you criticize China is often weird. It's certainly not all, but some people appear to be personally insulted if you just say something critical of this regime. That's often not a sane reaction.

This doesn't make sense. China's new climate plans are insufficient as per a wide range of global experts claiming the 10% is by far not enough.

The author is talking aobut Canada, but this is true for any country imho.

Yeah, good news have become rare in our world, but they happen ...

What does 'poorly' mean? It is highly unusual for an institutional investor like this to divest (let alone from a dozen or so companies from a single country). Most of their assets never turn over.

Yeah, and let us not forget the abducted children (just read the post prior to that one) and the other war crimes. Will those responsible be punished?

(This may be a bit off-topic, but I had a discussion yesterday in another thread on the number of propaganda posts that has allegedly increased in recent months here on Lemmy, and low-quality posts/comments that seems to follow an authoritarian disinformation and misinformation playbook. I feel somehow the linked article is one of these posts. There are many "poll says", "survey says", "politician X says", articles followed by highly biased and often misleading and very brief content. Maybe I am wrong, I am not here for too long and just another random guy on the web, but this is my impression.)

There is a similar trend in the Eurozone, the U.S., China, and practically all other larger areas. To provide a broader picture and a bit of a forecast:

• The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 49.8 in July 2025, up from 49.5 in June, marking the slowest contraction in the sector since July 2022 and signaling a move toward stabilization. Output continued to grow, albeit at the weakest pace since March ... At the country level, Ireland led euro area manufacturing, while the Netherlands, Spain, and Greece also saw solid growth. Elsewhere, PMI readings improved but remained below the 50.0 threshold ... Germany’s PMI reached a near three-year high, while France and Austria recorded the weakest performance in the bloc.
• The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was revised slightly higher to 49.8 in July 2025 from a preliminary estimate of 49.5, but it remained the lowest reading since December and continued to signal deteriorating operating conditions in the US goods-producing sector. Demand stagnated and tariff uncertainty continued to dominate the manufacturing landscape.
• The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in July 2025, down from 50.4 in June and below forecasts of 50.2. The latest reading marked the second contraction in factory activity in three months, driven by a sharper decline in new export orders amid global trade uncertainty. Output fell for the second time since October 2023 due to a slowdown in new orders growth. Employment declined, while purchasing activity expanded after falling over the previous two months. Supplier performance continued to deteriorate due to shipment delays and supplier shortages.

You'll find all other countries at Trading Economics.

[For those who may not know: The PMI - Purchasing Managers Index - is an indicator that measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction. According to Trading Economics macro model, the PMIs of the cited areas/countries and most other regions will be 50.0 or above by the end of the third quarter 2025.]

[Edit to correct a typo.]