Hi from EU! Can someone please explain to an interested outsider what this means?
The two largest political parties in Canada faced off in a polarizing election (at the expense of the smaller Canadian parties): the Liberals (slightly left of centre), vs. Conservatives (right wing big tent party). Canada's political system works as several simultaneous races for a parliamentary representative for their area, then the political party with the most representatives total selects (or has selected beforehand) a leader who will be the Prime Minister.
Now the Conservatives had been expected to take over due to the previous Liberal leader, Justin Trudeau, being blamed for inflation and anything bad by Conservatives, Trudeau not accomplishing much and people being tired of the incumbent. But then, Justin Trudeau steps down and chooses a new leader who calls an election, Trump gets in office and threatens Canada, leading enough people to realize what shit-fuckery Trump style politics in Canada would lead to (not as many as I'd like, but enough).
The Conservatives had a decent vote share, but the leader, Pierre Poilievre who ran on a diet version of populist conservative nationalism, lost his own seat. In the meantime, the province (a sub-national region) of Ontario also held an election. The Progressive Conservative party (right of centre populist) got majority power in the province again due to the party and leader, Doug Ford, campaigning strongly against Trump.
The provincial party had been warning the national one to change tack against Trump, both in private from leaked statements and in public from some current and former campaign managers. The Nova Scotia Premier, (leader of another province, also a Conservative party) also warned them. However, Pierre was too slow to do that, and his campaign style of not letting the press ask questions freely remained, reminiscent of the Trump administration, which partly contributed to Canada's Conservative relative loss of power.
In Trump-style politics, Dear Leader (Pierre who did not get elected in his own election race) can do no wrong, so now that the election is done, it's time for the blame game and the knives are out. The crazies of the Conservative party are going to attack anyone, even if they are politically aligned, if they dared to tell the truth about Poilievre's likeness to Trump leading him to failure.
Great summary! I can't see the Conservatives splitting and giving up their chances of gaining power, but I hope this at least tamps down the PPC elements of the Conservatives.
!lemmysilver for a great summary.
Rentlar's synopsis is really good, but I'll add a tiny bit of backstory. The Progressive Conservative party was the old stalwart, around forever, with not crazy views. Fiscally conservative. In the 90's a new brand of social conservative came on the scene from Alberta, the Reform party. Suddenly the conservative vote was getting split by fiscal conservatives (bring down the debt) and social conservatives (bring down big gay) and so there was a movement to "unite the right" that is now the current Conservative Party of Canada CPC which just lost the election. It has always been a tenuous alliance and shows cracks occasionally, but stays together because they win elections. Losing has caused the old conservatives and the reform conservatives to infight. Doug Ford is east/old style Pierre Pollivre is west/new style. They both really hate each other which is lovely to see from the other side.
@ladicius @Sunshine Depicted is Doug Ford, current Premiere of Ontario, Canada's most populous province. He is a leader of a provincial conservative party which typically is politically aligned with the federal conservative party.
A bit of drama within the ranks conservative political sphere in Canada is brewing whereby critics of the leader of the federal conservatives (e.g. Ford) and his allies (e.g. Jivani) are sniping at each other through the press. Here, Jivani is calling Ford a turncoat.
Thinking ford is suddenly a liberal without addressing his ridiculous highway plans, ridiculous tunnel plans, his loyalty to oil coupled with resistance to green energy, gutting of the endangered species act, and greenbelt scandal is ridiculous. Ford is half the problem most people in Ontario hate Trudeau because his polciies failed to help Ontarians, but his charisma managed to blame the feds.
He also promised buck a beer and what we got instead was an increase in beer prices and now you can buy it at every gas station, which i predict in the long term will increase the amount of drinking and driving as well as increase access to alcohol for minors.
What a time, when the federal Conservatives make Doug Ford look like the voice of reason, and hate him for it.
Imagine trying to dunk on a guy for not laying down and showing his belly to an authoritarian leader of a hostile Nation who wants to conquer yours. Like what kind of fucking loser..
Jamil is such a needlessly aggressive and whiny little cunt. Dude gives off the energy of a middle school football player flipping his shit over how the other team cheated and the refs are corrupt.
This is JD Vance's bestie we're talking about. He's a fascist.
My first impression of him was a few days ago.
"Loud uncooked dough"
Interestingly, Poilievre got more votes in Ontario than Doug did in the February provincial election. If the NDP vote hadn't collapsed the way it did he could easily have won.
If I'm reading this correctly, the political right in Canada need the political left to split the vote under a FPTP system in order to succeed?
That's the reason the PC and Reform parties merged back in the 90s. FPTP incentives two party races, this election is a stark example.
Love to see it. Hope they split apart again.
I have a proposal for conservatives in Canada, that I offer legitimately in the spirit of getting the best for the country: Become the party of democracy. Ditch the crazies (and their reactionary grievance politics), and embrace electoral reform.
I know most people say electoral reform is the kiss of death for them, but I'm not sure I agree:
- If they kick out the crazies, they will be a smaller party and their chances at holding SOME power will increase if we have some manner of PR or ranked ballot in place.
- The Liberals have taken the patriotism brand from them (Poilievre was an idiot for giving that one up to them), but they can take the democracy brand from them easily if they shift their approach - especially since the Liberals have fumbled electoral reform so badly ("We will do what the Liberals couldn't do...because we're the party of democracy!"). It also gives them a patriotic 'foot in the door', since they can tie democracy to Canadian identity and fundamental Canadian values. Finally, it will distinguish them from the Republicans and the US in general, which is what they need to do right now.
- When people make the claim that the Conservatives would suffer under electoral reform, the calculus assumes that voting habits don't change...but this is a foolish assumption, particularly in this case, since this maneuver would fundamentally shift the landscape
- Conservatives would be rebranding entirely and would be perceived as a brand new party - truly the party of change.
- Canadian Conservatives would set an example for right wing governments around the world
- They would become a party truly back in the political centre, and would easily steal Liberals back to them.
None of this means they need to abandon their economic ideology, although they may find they need to tweak it.
HOWEVER - this would require:
- Get rid of Poilievre and the others like him (Javani, etc.). They are toxic to good faith politics. They consider their opponents enemies, part of the out-group, and they will never be trusted enough to pull this off honestly. Also, this requires vision and an ability to unify people behind that vision - in other words, it requires leadership - and Poilievre is not a leader. He does not do vision or unity.
- The Conservatives would need to accept and embrace the idea of coalition governments and minority governments, since they are fundamentally the most democratic type of government and would therefore be just as legitimate as majority governments.
- They would need to actually care about democracy, and human rights, since they are fundamentally linked. This means a shift in policy towards indigenous and minority groups (thus why they need to ditch the crazies).
This isn't to say they wouldn't get a majority government ever (or indeed that no party ever would). In fact, I believe that the proper Conservative leader could do this in a way that would probably give them a good shot at a landslide victory in the next election. Carney has a very tough road ahead of him, but for sure the one thing that will help him get re-elected is the Conservatives digging in their heels and doing the same thing, but harder. They need to fundamentally change, and a change like this would give them the best fighting chance at looking like a trusted party to take Canada to a better place.
real democracy is incompatible with conservatism
I would argue real democracy is incompatible with the current authoritarian version of conservatism, and obviously historical conservatism was created to support the monarchy, but modern conservatism is not necessarly the same as either of those, and can be reimagined. In fact I think it will necessarily need to do so, since it will face a reckoning after Trump. It has the opportunity to create a movement that can truly connect with the people.
A fraction in the right is bound to happen, you have some who are barely off center and others who are full blown seperatist maple maga, they do not agree on the same things....
I mean, if the politician does what you like, what does it matter the colour they wear?
Tribalism. Rachel Notley did great things in Alberta but she was not Conservative so everything she did was labelled bad. Trudeau pays $4B for a pipeline in AB and they still say Trudeau is anti-oil.. You just can't win with Conservatives.
