An Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed on Christmas Day was “likely shot down by a Russian military air defence system,” a UK-based aviation security firm has said.
What I read (and who knows whether it'll turn out to be true) was that the plane was off it's planned course, likely due to a birdstrike, which lead to them entering an area that was actively expecting drone attacks, which likely lead to the Russians shooting it down.
The location of active drone attacks is Grozny which was the intended destination. Maybe they approached the airport in an unexpected direction. But the shrapnel marks in the interior before the crash indicate an attack.
A plane (or part of a plane) can have the required aerodynamics for a "flat stall" (flat spin) or similar condition of falling. Depending on the plane (or part of it), and depending on whether a fire follows the fall - with incredible luck it's possible to come down at parachute-like speed and get away with injuries only.
However, if the plane was still controllable, then during an unpowered landing, pilots are supposed to trade speed for lift on the last moment. I guess they succeeded partly - they died, but folks in the tailward part stayed alive.
Being able to question survivors will help determine what happened, but the holes in surfaces look like air defense shrapnel to me. :(
The tail section separated on impact. There’s a couple videos, one from the outside showing people being rescued from the tail, and one from the inside from one of the survivors.