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Well when they're saying there's 2% odds, that's....probably still higher than you want for the probability of a world ending asteroid strike.
It's not a world ending strike. It's 2.3% odds that a city ending strike lands somewhere on earth, most likely in the ocean.
It's a fraction of a fraction of a % that it'll hit somewhere with any humans at all, much less a populated city.
And on top of that, we have until 2032 to decide what to do about it, with enough time to potentially redirect it with technology we've already demonstrated that works. And if that isn't enough, we just need one or two more data points to figure out almost exactly where it will hit, and can evacuate the area.
Just like we do for hurricanes and other natural disasters.
This is not an emergency, this is an easy mode try out for a real disaster.
This is not an emergency, this is an easy mode try out for a real disaster.
So it's going to be horribly fumbled in the stupidest manner possible and will definitely become a worldwide disaster. Got it.
45/47 is going to shoot down anything that tries to divert it, then. Gotcha.
It's not even gonna hit until 2032, orange fuckface is dead by then
The one caveat is, it’s going to be out of visual range soon and we won’t get any more info for a few years
The caveat to THAT is that we do have historical data, and if we can find one or more images confirmed to be the target, we could narrow it down without additional imaging.
The only thing to ever have a higher score than this one on the Torino scale (before further calculations reclassified it as a 0) is scheduled to come close by in 2029. Should be interesting to watch, at least.
City ending will cause weather chaos and possibly radioactive fallout.
But the funny part is that you think 2032 is enough time. Humans are USELESS when we need to do large international projects to a deadline.
China Sets Up 'Planetary Defense' Unit Over 2032 Asteroid Threat
This is just the plot to Don't Look Up.
There's a great video by Scott Manly on the subject if you want to learn more. It'd smaller than some nukes we've tested, and would land somewhere around the equator between the Atlantic and China if it does hit. It looks surprisingly feasible to deflect, but it'd be a time crunch to put a mission together in only a couple of months. Plus it might deflect it into hitting a different country.
Not high enough odds