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Can Biden come back from a bad debate the way Reagan did in 1984?
  • I don’t even think they stand to benefit. I think when he blows up the US their assets will lose value, and depending on how bad it gets they may start having to hang out in some other safer country like a Russian oligarch spending all his time in Western Europe.

    I think it is just pure force of habit at this point, like “Biden’s gonna tax the rich fuck him let’s get behind this disaster instead.” I mean, it worked for other disasters like Reagan or W, but I think they haven’t really absorbed how big a disaster Trump 2 would be.

  • ChatGPT would have been so much useful and trustworthy if it is able to accept that it doesn't know an answer.
  • Yeah. It is fairly weird to me that it’s such a common thing to do to take the raw output of the LLM and send that to the user, and to try use fine-tuning to get that raw output to look some way that you want.

    To me it is obvious that something like having the LLM emit a little JSON block which includes some field which covers “how sure are you that this is actually true” or something, is more flexible and simpler and cheaper and works better.

    But what do I know

  • CNN reports 20-year record low debate viewership
  • Apparently the only way the candidates will agree to do it is if the format is so stilted that there's no chance of anyone learning anything or seeing the candidates get challenged on anything. It's basically just a taking-in-turns version of a campaign commercial.

    What, indeed, is the point. Like a lot of American politics, the whole "debate" survives as a pointless vestige of a thing (now long forgotten) that was useful and productive in its original form, but now is mutated to a useless and unrecognizable monstrosity, which you have to pretend is super serious and important if you want to be able to be on TV.

  • Can Biden come back from a bad debate the way Reagan did in 1984?
  • Yeah

    1. Biden got a ton of good stuff done, but even if you don't agree with that, there is no possible way that an adult human being with any level of political awareness can claim that Trump wouldn't be an objective disaster on an absolutely globe-spanning scale, or that we should do anything in this election than vote for whoever isn't Trump. It's like one of those video game puzzles that's so clear and simple that it seems like there must be more to it. "Do you want to open and find out what's in the box? Or for me to thrust this running chainsaw into your coccyx?" "What's in the box?" "It's a friendly cat, but why do you need to ask?"
    2. Biden at the debate looked old as fuck and that's a problem

    It's sorta boring when you just lay it out, but IDK how anyone could disagree with either of those

  • CNN reports 20-year record low debate viewership
  • Yeah. I mean it's hard to blame them--

    You know what, fuck that, let's blame them. They have a responsibility. This is like all the German businesses that played along with the Nazis because it was easier and then had to change the subject when their grandkids asked them about the war years. Like yeah grandad ran a, uh, a pots and pans factory. Yeah. Just pots and pans. Now go play outside.

    In ordinary times I think it would be fair to say well you know a bunch of them didn't focus on the bottom line and went out of business and everyone had to get new jobs, so hard to blame the ones still around. But this is kind of all hands on deck time. It's one thing if you don't want to write articles about the IRA and all good stuff about Biden. It's a whole different fuckin story if you want to write stories feeding into getting the guy elected who is going to fuck up your home and city and business and economy and the safety of you and your families, too, and then (I am sure) stand around like "we're all looking for the guy that did this" if it winds up coming true.

  • Can Biden come back from a bad debate the way Reagan did in 1984?
  • It is fascinating to me that the "Biden is in HUGE trouble in the election because of the debate" narrative is so unanimous in the media

    In a way that "Trump is in HUGE trouble in the election because of his felonies" was not in any way

    Even though from the tiny amount of polling that has apparently happened, the second one was a bigger deal to the electorate than the first one

    Curious

  • CNN reports 20-year record low debate viewership
  • It gave some sound bites for people to hold up as examples of why Biden is old which I'm sure we will be seeing on certain news networks from now until forever going forward

    And gave a bunch of "objective" news outlets a good excuse to write a bunch of "DEMS IN PANIC AFTER BIDEN'S UNFORGIVABLE SHIT SHOW" articles they are for some reason eager to write

    Other than that significant amount of fodder, I think nothing of value occurred

  • This is how we ended up with a servant named Grayskull.
  • This is always a part of my prep sheet, is a little list of random names.

  • To serve his country, Donald Trump should leave the race | Editorial Board
  • Philly is also the city that violently chased the Patriot Front out when they tried to do a march, like literally just set on them whacking them with big sticks sending them packing back into their U-Haul van and driving away shamefully. Like Han Solo unhesitatingly shooting at Vader the instant he sees him sat at the dinner table for his big betrayal speech. Be like Philly.

  • Undecided voters say they now support Joe Biden after debate
  • Oh, I know. I am just stating the message for the rest of the people.

    The bad faith folks used to have these epic debates with me back and forth but I think they have mostly stopped doing that and I am heartened to think that maybe they decided that trying to say anything I was saying wasn’t true was an obvious losing battle and they were hurting their cause by even making the attempt.

  • ChatGPT would have been so much useful and trustworthy if it is able to accept that it doesn't know an answer.
  • At one point I messed around with a lore generator that would chop up sections of "The Dungeon Alphabet" and "Fire on the Velvet Horizon" along with some other stuff, and feed random sections of them into the LLM for inspiration and then ask it to lay out a little map, and it pretty reliably came up with all kind of badass stuff.

  • 29 June 1981
  • I think he said in the last book, in the little notes under some selected strips, that Steve Dallas was his alter ego.

    OTOH this agrees with you and I think I was basing that just off that one-off statement and so maybe I am wrong

  • 29 June 1981
  • It is funnier knowing that Steve Dallas was Berke Breathed’s alter ego that he inserted into the strip to make fun of himself

  • ChatGPT would have been so much useful and trustworthy if it is able to accept that it doesn't know an answer.
  • This wasn't an intentional feature; they're actually trying to train it with fine-tuning to add this as an ability. It's one area that highlights the difference between it imitating the text it's been seeing, instead of actually understanding what it's saying -- since most of its training data is of the form "(ask a question) (response to question)" overwhelmingly more often than "(ask a question) (say you don't know, the end)", it is trying to be a good imitator and do the same, and come up with some plausible nonsense even if it doesn't know the answer.

  • A cool guide from 1797 on the effects of drink on the mind and body
  • Sickness, Puking, and Debt

    Sounds about right

  • Undecided voters say they now support Joe Biden after debate
  • If "hey look at this poll of left handed middle income women in swing states, Trump is ahead 86 points" is bullshit

    Then "this one focus group of 8 Hispanic voters thought Biden did great, time to stop worrying" is also bullshit

    Wait to see the polls. I am anticipating them showing some loss for Biden because the average American would rather have a vigorous insurrectionist running the country, than a visibly old person with good policy ideas. I would love to be shown proof that I am wrong in that but this isn't it. I think Biden's great, but he does still have to win the election, and the debate wasn't a good showing for him, and one little focus group doesn't change that and doesn't justify the broad sweeping headline here.

  • IRS plans to make its free tax filing program permanent
  • Why would you hurt me this way

  • A cool guide to sushi etiquette
  • I took the phone to do a video chat with someone’s central Asian friend and he immediately said “Aw, shit, big fake American smile.” I sort of checked myself like yeah he’s right I do have a big fake bullshit meeting-someone smile on my face. Well now I feel like a dummy.

    It gave me some cultural perspective.

  • What's currently the 'smartest' language model?
  • GPT-4 generally doesn’t need fine tuning or anything no

  • IRS plans to make its free tax filing program permanent
    edition.cnn.com IRS plans to make its free tax filing program permanent | CNN Politics

    The Internal Revenue Service said Thursday that it will continue and expand its free tax filing program in 2025.

    IRS plans to make its free tax filing program permanent | CNN Politics
    45
    Russia Loses Last Black Sea Missile Ship
    www.kyivpost.com Russia Loses Last Black Sea Missile Ship – Putin Demands Better Protection

    Putin urges increased protection for the fleet against long-range missiles, after Ukraine eliminates another missile ship in Sevastopol, forcing Moscow to move the fleet to mainland Russia.

    Russia Loses Last Black Sea Missile Ship – Putin Demands Better Protection
    50
    Pandemics causing death are linked with increases in support for radical political movements, all the way back to the 1918 flu pandemic and the birth of 20th century fascism
    www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and the Rise of Italian Fascism: A Cross-City Quantitative and Historical Text Qualitative Analysis

    Evidence linking past experiences of worsening health with support for radical political views has generated concerns about the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. The influenza pandemic that began in 1918 had a devastating health impact: 4.1 million ...

    The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and the Rise of Italian Fascism: A Cross-City Quantitative and Historical Text Qualitative Analysis
    5
    theintercept.com Cheap and Lethal: The Pentagon’s Plan for the Next Drone War

    Drones continually kill civilians, but the U.S. military wants to expand its arsenal with an army of new, mass-produced AI drones.

    Cheap and Lethal: The Pentagon’s Plan for the Next Drone War
    6
    thecause.substack.com We are all Hunter Biden to Donald Trump

    Marcy Wheeler’s singular reporting reveals how MAGA has gotten away with framing the president’s son.

    We are all Hunter Biden to Donald Trump
    3
    Indigo Woodlouse, apparently maybe infected with Iridovirus
    www.inaturalist.org Genus Iridovirus

    Iridovirus from Soldiers Field Rd, Boston, MA, US on June 17, 2024 at 07:14 PM by otterx. Lots of them in my community garden plot in Boston MA.

    Genus Iridovirus

    Courtesy of @otterX

    1
    www.msnbc.com Under Biden, U.S. economic growth becomes the ‘envy of the world’

    The United States' economy looks strong compared to recent history, but comparing it to countries abroad, the Biden-era economy looks even more amazing.

    Under Biden, U.S. economic growth becomes the ‘envy of the world’
    45
    Nina Simone - Sinnerman
    3
    arstechnica.com Cop busted for unauthorized use of Clearview AI facial recognition resigns

    Indiana cop easily hid frequent personal use of Clearview AI face scans.

    Cop busted for unauthorized use of Clearview AI facial recognition resigns

    "So the cop was tracking random people off social media using this incredibly invasive technology, on a pretty regular basis."

    "That's bad."

    "But, an audit detected his abuse of the system and he was slated for termination."

    "That's good!"

    "But the system still exists, and can be used for nefarious purposes as long as those are state-approved uses backed by a case number, which is honestly a bigger deal and concern than one random officer using it for, presumably, stalking."

    "That's bad."

    "And, from the description of the nature of their auditing, it would be pretty easy for an officer to use the system abusively as long as they were more careful to disguise the nature of their access than this guy was."

    "That's... also bad."

    "And, it's notable that the auditing in question was done by his department, not ClearView itself. It sounds like it's up to each individual law enforcement agency to make sure its officers are using it ethically, without centralized oversight from ClearView let alone any type of judicial or legal oversight, which sounds like a recipe for abuse even leaving aside the issue of state-sanctioned abuse of the system and the general increase in police powers it represents."

    "... Can I go now?"

    16
    What Hamas Called Its Female Captives, and Why It Matters

    So to recap the events of a couple of weeks ago:

    1. One Hamas fighter called a group of female captives sabaya
    2. The IDF translated that as "women who can get pregnant"
    3. Basically the whole world got up in arms about the translation, and rightly so

    What was missing from the discourse IMO was the procession on to step 4: Someone comes in and explains exactly what the word actually does mean, and why even just bringing it up in this context was an important thing, neither of which are trivial questions.

    This article does a pretty good job of that, hitting the high points of:

    • IDF's wildly inflammatory translation aside, it is a word with explicit associations to sexual slavery, which has been resurrected in the last 10 years after it had basically disappeared as the common practice of slavery had waned, and its use in this context is an important window onto Hamas's rank and file's mindset
    • While of course bearing in mind that one random soldier saying one fucked-up thing isn't indicative of anything other than that soldiers (especially ones deployed against civilian populations) sometimes do and say real fucked up things

    Obviously the full article has lots more detail, but that's the TL;DR

    23
    Typos in code generation now?

    Has anyone else noticed this kind of thing? This is new for me:

    povies.append({ 'tile': litte, 're': ore, 't_summary': put_summary, 'urll': til_url })

    "povies" is an attempt at "movies", and "tile" and "litte" are both attempts at "title". And so on. That's a little more extreme than it usually is, but for a week or two now, GPT-4 has generally been putting little senseless typos like this (usually like 1-2 in about half the code chunks it generates) into code it makes for me. Has anyone else seen this? Any explanation / way to make it stop doing this?

    6
    Today Senate Republicans blocked a measure that would have created a federal right to contraception access
    joycevance.substack.com Going Retrograde

    Today was an important day to be paying attention. In many ways, we seem to be going backward. Only our votes can ultimately change that. Senate Republicans blocked a measure that would have created a federal right to contraception access today. That seems like it should have been noncontroversial. ...

    Going Retrograde
    56
    US-Made M270 and HIMARS Execute First Cross-Border Strikes Since Biden Green Light
    www.kyivpost.com US-Made M270 and HIMARS Hammer Targets Inside Russia, First Cross-Border Strikes Since Biden Green Light

    Kyiv had launched its own drones and anti-aircraft missiles into Russian territory before, but never American-made high-tech M42 guided rockets. The US green-lighted the launches on Friday.

    US-Made M270 and HIMARS Hammer Targets Inside Russia, First Cross-Border Strikes Since Biden Green Light
    1