Almost 40% think Australia should dump US alliance if Donald Trump returns as president, poll finds
Almost 40% think Australia should dump US alliance if Donald Trump returns as president, poll finds
You all need to remove your sense of morality from foreign policy calculations made by any government. It's about power, always about power. You may personally view one nation's values as better and therefore their ideas of power more moral, but still, it's about power.
For Australia specifically, they are reliant on the US Naval power projection for their conception of Australian national security, which is why even their new Labor government is still moving ahead with AUKUS. It why Australia has always sent their troops to fight in America's wars (post-WW2), rightly or wrongly.
Even after Vietnam was so bad for Australia that they revamped their entire military to become a "defensive" force and not an explicitly expeditionary one, they still fought in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Those were all chips put into the American security pot, that they're hoping to be able to call in when they need it.
Those reasons, and more, are why I'm confident that even with Trump, it would take something so drastic and catastrophic to change their calculations, that I don't want to even try and imagine what that would be. Even if I'm sure Trump could manage to cause whatever catalyst that would be necessary. Still, it wouldn't just be his reelection. It would be something so much worse.
While you're correct in a geopolitical sense right now, there's a strong reason to believe things could get a LOT worse. Trump is worrying close to going full fascist, and the parallels to the rise of Hitler are incredibly worrying. It could absolutely just be overreacting, and maybe it will all blow over, but re-election of Trump would show a very worrying pro-dictatorship pro-white christian nationalist bent in the US. It wouldn't take much in such a situation to see the MAGA party execute a coup of the US government and head down the same path we've seen in the past. They've already tried it once after all (or twice if you count the storming the the capital and the attempt to certify fake electors as two separate occurrences), and only failed by the thinnest of margins.
In such a situation it's easy to see a hypothetical militaristic MAGA party starting a war with China, or possibly even more worryingly with someone in Europe and Australia not wanting to get pulled into the mess that would start. It could very well be the start of WW3 and nobody sane wants to see that.
They’ve already tried it once after all (or twice if you count the storming the the capital and the attempt to certify fake electors as two separate occurrences), and only failed by the thinnest of margins.
TBH the insane thing we're doing today that we also did after the civil war is... allowing participants in said insurrection to govern instead of handling them the way other countries treat their traitors.
The alien discard begins lol, we've become too annoying and they've decided to infect the people's brains with war
Jk
When I say Trump is a unique threat, I'm speaking in terms of foreign policy and alliances.
I haven't talked about, nor do I want to talk about, American domestic politics in this thread.
That said, what about my view of Trump as a unique threat in that context, gives you the impression that I don't think he poses unique threats domestically?
Also, your points about the rise of a MAGA-Reich are pretty far outside the bounds of anything relating to the issue at hand: practical issues relating to Australia's military alliance and a Trump reelection.
So...not really sure what your point is, at least not in relation to my comment.
So how long will people continue to think like that and by result let everything fall apart?
Without morality, life is meaningless.
The USA get one "we did something unthinkably stupid" free pass.
No way would they ever reelect that literal fascist after he all but tried to dismantle their institutions and install himself as a democratic dictator.
They're not that stupid, and if they are? We should all cut ties, don't want to be dragged down with the ship. But it won't come to that.
I know at least one person who, after saying they don't like Trump and agreeing that he has done several illegal things, said that they would rather have Trump as president than Biden again.
It's certainly not impossible that he gets elected again.
We are that stupid.
We really are. It’s still bad here
The USA get one “we did something unthinkably stupid” free pass.
They used up all those passes during the Bush administration.
No way would they ever reelect
They’re not that stupid
I'm getting these vibes from this comment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6Oczyk6nCw
Which terrifies me.
We should all cut ties, don’t want to be dragged down with the ship
Cutting ties with the most powerful country in the world? Not going to happen.
Honestly, how can anyone say he won't be elected again? Have we learned nothing?
Here is an alternative Piped link(s):
https://www.piped.video/watch?v=Z6Oczyk6nCw
Piped is a privacy-respecting open-source alternative frontend to YouTube.
I'm open-source; check me out at GitHub.
This is probably as good a place and time as any to reflect on how everything went as terribly wrong as it had to get in order for clowns like Trump to not be laughed out of politics.
Politics had to fall very far, very hard, to get to the point where enough people felt like voting at all was a waste of time- and probably the biggest single factor I can point out is when the Neoliberals took over the Democrats, American Labor lost its only champion, Antitrust law lost its only advocate, and both major parties in the USA essentially became handmaidens to corporate power. While this was happening, the GOP, long since a dark-money puppet organization, abandoned any pretense of doing anything in the public interest and became a full-throated howl of corruption and voter suppression and gerrymandering.
When both major parties in a duopoly system take turns tag-teaming the working class for their donors' profit margins, you can expect that working class to radicalize, leftwards and rightwards, it's what happens every time when a working class realizes it's being objectively fucked. There was a reason Weimar Germany was so full of left-socialists and right-fascists, the middle had thoroughly failed and it turns out that when given the choice, status-quo-liberals will always choose fascism over socialism.
Biden is the most pro labor president in decades.
That, that's the exact problem he is pointing out.
This is true and very welcome, but TBH that's a very low bar to clear and a long time coming. Up until the Biden admin started taking action, union protections have been steadily eroded since the Reagan admin. and with that, union membership went on a decades-long collapsing trend (and with it, so did labor's buying power).
The point to my above post was that it had to get very dark for a candidate like Trump to get any oxygen whatsoever, and if there's one way to drive despair in democracy, it's to make people that grew up expecting to live middle-class lives into poor people.
The most pro labor president in decades being an union buster just reinforces the point.
Those are decades of being wildly off course not just in labor but in environment, regulation, infrastructure, and innovation.
You're right, but I worry you're wrong about why you're right.
Mmmhmm
Almost 40% think Australia should dump US alliance if Donald Trump returns as president, poll finds
And I wouldn't hold it against them if they did. If we're dumb enough to re-elect a fascist that already attempted one coup to remain in power then we should be dropped by all our allies. We would be a security risk at that point.
America's institutions are resilient, especially the military and security state components, even if the latter often vacillate between amoral and immoral.
They're vulnerable, and under heavy strain, but they aren't so brittle that one man can destroy them singlehandedly.
My point isn't that we have nothing to fear from another Trump presidency, it's that for most of America's security partners, they don't really have any other good alternatives at the moment. So for better, or worse, they'll stick around for as long as it's necessary for them, because America's ability to project power transcends the oval office.
If anyone could change their calculations, it's Trump, but it would because of a situation he caused, or escalated, not just his reelection.
A standard GOP play is on display here, readers: the classic "Oh it's not that bad, nothing will really change, if you don't vote it'll be just fine."
Things have already changed. Our institutions are not just under strain, in some ways they've already fallen. Our supreme Court is thoroughly compromised. The house is under control by a vocal, crazy minority that just managed to wrest control of speaker of the house who is third in line to the president.
We came incredibly close to a coup stealing an entire branch of the US government, and the second and third are already under minority zealot control.
Vote. The US government is not so resilient that you can just ignore it. In fact, that is directly the plan and goal of the minority party trying to steal permanent control of the government- to trick you into apathy, that it doesn't matter who is in charge because nothing will change
Their past actions prove otherwise. Don't allow yourself to be mislead. Vote. And don't ignore people like the person above me trying to siren call others into a position of comfortable apathy. Call them out on their bullshit. Be polite, it may be inadvertant- perhaps they've not been affected. Or maybe they're trying to talk about something else and are simply accidentally implying that things will just end up fine, like the poster above me. But in the end, regardless of the motivations, it is bullshit all the same. History is littered with the ghosts of once grand countries, and nobody thought they would fall either.
only 40% seems disturbingly low.
In other news only 40.01% of Australians care about US politics.
lolz
Almost 40% of most democratic country’s populations would probably agree with most dumb and provocative ideas presented in a poll… especially now days with how partisan everything has become.
That said the Australia/ USA alliance is more important than any particular administration or head of government either our Australian government or the US government.
It’s an alliance of enormous mutual benefit that frankly is not going anywhere.
Australia is an enormous unsinkable aircraft carrier rich in resources, far enough from potential adversaries in the region to provide extremely strong defence in depth in the region. We use common platforms and tactics in battle, and have extensive integrated combat experience.
Perhaps even more important than any of that, it would be politically unacceptable I believe to our populations to turn our back on each other at this point, so many of us have personal friends and family in each other’s country.
We might occasionally have disagreements like any family does, and we might not like everything about each other but that’s how it goes with family. Any other country trying some shit I feel will find out fast that our alliance is stronger than it has ever been.
The US, UK and Australia have a bond forged in the fire of conflict and quenched in blood, anyone who wants to try and fuck with one should probably be ready for a fight with all… not to be overly dramatic.
I appreciate this dude's pride
40% of Australia? I wasnt asked? (But I agree)
why? hasnt it been proven that the Aus govt doesnt care about what the population wants? besides 40% being 11% short of a majority?
Surprised it's not 60% honestly.
There are so many answers to this but the most egregious of all is trying to overthrow the democratically elected government through any and all means. Shouldn't be hard to understand.
He's also under 90 felony indictments for fraud and espionage
Ok that's a fair point. But I see him used as a kind of scapegoat that masks what is happening now. No matter how fucked are US policies now some would day "at least it's not Trump." There was never a chance of him overthrowing anything tbh. The riot that happened are kind of a joke and they didn't even know wtf to do once they got inside so they just took selfies. It's a terrible look of course but I don't think there was any great danger given what it would take to actually overthrow a government in the US.
I dont think you will get an answer. Here is a list of accomplishments and actions under Trump while in presidency. You can compare that to Biden.
With this as the foundation, I can make a lengthy comment to refute what you said but I think it would be helpful if you took the time to read these and compare. Trump was just not good at his job.
personally, i think mocking disabled people, being bigoted, denying that a disease exists leading to thousands of preventable deaths, starting an attempted coup, and rape are all pretty bad. conservatives have different views on morality tho 🤷
Have you ever listened to the guy? In no other country on this planet would he be in charge of anything.
Because of what he says or because of what he does though? Trump said all kind of crazy shit but I don't see him as quantitatively different from what is happening now. The truth lies in what is done not what is said and the entire facade of word plays. My contention is that Biden is so much worse while actually knowing how to dress things up in a diplomatic and politically correct way. I'd rather have someone speak bullshit than have politically correct destruction of the middle east
For a little while, I was afraid he might nuke some innocent country or start WW3. I was surprised at how light his had was on the wheel.
I largely agree that he talk shit but does little. Not nothing, but he could have done much worse, IMHO. Mostly bark and a little bite.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
A significant minority of Australians think the country should withdraw from the overall Anzus security alliance with the US if Donald Trump returns to the White House, while just under half of the respondents in a new poll believe the Aukus pact locks Australia in to supporting the US in any armed conflict.
But after the steady thaw in diplomatic relations between Canberra and Beijing over the past 12 months, and the release of Australia’s defence strategic review in April, 49% say that now.
A majority of Australian respondents (63%) believe China will become the most economically and militarily influential country in Asia over the coming couple of decades (32% say the US will be the pre-eminent power).
The new poll findings follow Anthony Albanese’s return from an official visit to Washington and ahead of the prime minister’s trip to Shanghai and Beijing at the end of this week.
Seven months after Albanese joined Biden and the British prime minister, Rishi Sunak, in San Diego to announce the Aukus plans, there remains uncertainty over congressional approvals needed for them to succeed.
Asked on Tuesday whether or not he was walking a diplomatic tightrope between the strategic competitors – Washington and Beijing – the prime minister said Australians wanted him “to be direct about our interests”.
The original article contains 792 words, the summary contains 215 words. Saved 73%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!
40% of Australia has their head on.
While I agree, this survey is based on less than 1% of the population. The article does not clearly cite its sources. 'Based on 1019 responses' from who? Sydneysiders? People from the NT?
This uncited survey from a for profit company, with major shareholders being venture capitalists, asset managers, shitbags, etc. with a history of possible poll manipulation means nothing.
I expect better from the Guardian
Yes, that's how polls work.
I agree with what you're saying for the most part, but for a population the size of Australia with 1000 respondents, a 99% confidence level has a margin of error of 4% which is perfectly acceptable. Unless the survey targeted very specific demographics versus a random sample, it should be very accurate.
How high are you right meow?