My current answer to the question of when machines will reach human-level intelligence is that a precise calculation shows that we are between 1.7 and 3.1 Einsteins and .3 Manhattan Projects away from the goal.
omg this statement sounds 100% like something that could be posted today by Sam Altman on X. It's hititing exactly the sweet spot between appearing precise but also super vague, like Altman's "a few thousand days".
Like his predecessor critics of artificial intelligence, Taube, Dreyfus and Lighthill, Weizenbaum is impatient, implying that if the problem hasn't been solved in twenty years, it is lime to give up.
Weizenbaum replies,
I do not say and I do not believe that "if the problem hasn't been solved in twenty years, we should give up". I say (p. 198) " . . . it would be wrong . . . to make impossibility arguments about what computers can do entirely on the grounds of our present ignorance". That is quite the opposite of what McCarthy charges me with saying.
It's a snidely jokey response to an argument that Weizenbaum didn't make!
And even if Joseph Weizenbaum did actually say, verbatim: “if the problem hasn’t been solved in twenty years, it is time to give up”, that's not the same as asking for the precise time when “machines will reach human-level intelligence”.
John McCarthy's really sounding like a typical libertarian prat.
He concludes that since a computer cannot have the experience of a man, it cannot understand a man. There are three
points to be made in reply. First, humans share each other's experiences and those of machines or animals only to a limited extent. In particular, men and women have different experiences.
Nevertheless, it is common in literature for a good writer - to show greater understanding of the experience of the opposite sex than a poorer writer of that sex.
Yeeeaah, sure. And to write that in the 1970s even.
If anything, this McCarthy reply makes me want to read the Weizenbaum book.
Few "scientific" concepts have so thoroughly muddled the thinking of both scientists and the general public as that of the "intelligence quotient" or "I.Q." The idea that intelligence can be quantitatively measured along a simple linear scale has caused untold harm to our society in general, and to education in particular.
The standout monuments of stupidity—and/or monstrosity—in McCarthy's response for me are.
Calling JW a failed computer scientist for failing to see that computers and clockwork are different, when really there is no computation a computer can make that Turing Complete clockwork couldn't be able to replicate.
Essentially saying that by analogy, where religion should not stand in the way of science, so should morals not stand in the way of science?!?!?! (I mean really? WTF)