The removal of fees and bookings for the unserviced and largely unmanaged tier of campgrounds is a welcome change, I did not like it when they introduced these.
Not getting 100% of the booking charge back sounds like it should cut down on people booking when they don't actually mean to turn up, so I'd say that's reasonable.
I have reservations about how expensive the higher tier charges are though, even the mid tiers are getting pricey for what's supposed to be a cheap activity.
I think that the key would to not have the bookings managed by an outside contractor, but monitored by an outside auditor.
I reckon that half of the Ghost Camping issue in Victoria is either ParksVic don’t want too many people at a campsite or the Bookings contractor gets paid a commission on bookings, so add fake bookings to boost KPIs.
The other half are arseholes who think that they would enjoy an empty campsite more than a campsite with other friendly people.
I think it's more that it's very easy (and now free) to book a campsite and there's zero incentive for people to cancel bookings they aren't going to use.
Ghost bookings would be a labour intensive way to limit the number of people at campsites (ParkVics would have far easier ways to do that) and Bookings contractor commissions? On free bookings? That wouldn't be very lucrative.
Parks does often give the impression that they'd rather the plebs didn't actually go into their parks, but I think them booking ghost camps might be a step too far given they could just reduce the nominal capacity further to get the same effect.
I would bet the vast majority of the problem is your second option of people booking out campgrounds to avoid others (with a side helping of those who aren't sure which day they want to go out so they book all options). Looking at who has a record of cancelling bookings would probably allow one to cut out a lot of this as I suspect you'd find a bunch of repeat offenders.
NSW campsites by memory were double QLD prices in places. It felt incredibly expensive. I don't recall fully, but man, in comparison to QLD it felt a bit of a rip.