The first quarter is on track for negative GDP growth, Atlanta Fed indicator says
The first quarter is on track for negative GDP growth, Atlanta Fed indicator says
The central bank's GDPNow tracker of incoming metrics is indicating that gross domestic product is on pace to shrink by 1.5%.
Summary
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker indicates U.S. GDP may shrink by 1.5% in Q1 2025, reversing from an earlier 2.3% growth estimate.
Weak consumer spending and exports contributed to the downgrade, reflecting broader economic concerns. Inflation-adjusted spending dropped 0.5% in January, and net exports' contribution fell sharply.
Declining consumer confidence, rising jobless claims, and an inverted yield curve signal potential recession risks.
Markets now expect multiple Fed rate cuts in 2025, with an 80% chance of a June reduction, as economic uncertainty weighs on stocks and bonds.
Next they'll be suggesting we stop measuring these things.
The WaPo will tell them how things are (not). For those not hearing it on X or Truth or Meta.
Are we great yet?
dogé style
We may officially be working on Greater, now. The Greater Recession, I mean, of course.
I think we're already in the middle of the greatest depression, too.
broader economic concerns
Quite the understatement.
Is net export decline driven by decreased exports, or increased imports to stockpile before tariffs?