I read an article a while back that said JPL estimates critical wheel damage (14 out of the 19 treads snapping) to occur around 2034. That won't be the end of the rover though, they have a plan. Once damage passes that point of no return, they'll deliberately snap off the inner two thirds of the wheel and keep going on just the stronger outer third. https://spectrum.ieee.org/if-necessary-mars-rover-curiosity-could-rip-its-own-wheels-off-to-stay-mobile
The people working on this are truly incredible. I'm always extremely happy to read about these kinds of endeavors - so many people can do incredible things when given the time and funding.
Several years ago they did an engineering study that basically stated that when a specific number of cleats broke it had used up a percentage of its life. We're past that stage now. They have since developed a scenario that will allow them to rip one half of the damaged wheel off, and still drive on the remaining half.... All of the wheels are motorized, losing one wheel won't stop the rover from traversing to it's science waypoints