1y ago

Betting data shows Harris's chances are on the up but Trump is still leading

news.sky.com

Reminder that you guys should go out and vote. Trump has been ahead since September 2023. Don’t let the echo chamber make you feel like it’s a done deal. That’s what I thought until I saw this article.

19 comments

Betting data? Is that like a turn off phrase or are people actually betting on elections
- People bet on elections.
  
  And it's pretty interesting data when it comes to elections as it's pretty much a live opinion poll if you track the odds over time—as most modern betting companies will adjust the odds automatically based on how people are betting
- Didnt read the article yet but there are these things called "prediction markets" where people bet (usually with play money but sometimes real money) on real world events like politic decisions, elections, wars, but also very small or individual things. Its sort of a stock market for predicting real world events and it tends to be much better than most other systems at predicting stuff.
  For example this one was about Biden dropping out. https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n?r=QW5kcmV3Rw
  
  From the image ... I'm not sure that's such a great predictor. Over all of the time from the debate it seems like the "market" was leaning "yes" for most of the time, until about the time basically all of the mainstream media was pretty certain it was going to happen (where it seemed pretty clear that plenty of leaks were occurring).
  I mean maybe this reflects the actual reality and it was in the air this much ... but either way I don't think this "market" knew more than the mainstream media was telling us.
- Yes, it's somewhat popular. At least it's available at some bookies, I don't know hay many people actually bet on it
I think people who place bets on politicians are not a great representation of the whole population. Biden was behind Trump by a lot too.
- Betting markets also work based on available information.
  Harris hasn't really started campaigning but the betting markets are getting money down for her and as such adjust the odds.
  I also want to point out that these articles also act as an advertisement for the betting markets.
  I don't expect anyone to stop posting about them but this is one way they gain business - getting stories published during notable events to bring in the suckers.
- These people aren't placing bets on who they want to win, they are placing bets where the house odds differ from the actual expected outcome. The people throwing big money on this are doing it based on actual data (amalgamating polls, etc), not just gut feelings.
  If I think Kamala has a 45% chance of winning the election and the bookie is giving her implied odds of 40%, I should take that bet, because even though I think she will lose, I stand to make a 12.5% ROI on my bet. I can then hedge that bet on another bookmaker giving a 48% implied odds, and if enough people do this the bookmakers odds will converge on 44%
The betting relies on the polls, which are useless for another week or so.
- I'm over here like "It's been a day. Calm the fuck down."
  
  It may take a week or more to start getting meaningful polls. One very big problem is that all pollsters correct the sample to match their idea of the electorate. So if the pollster believes 15% of the electorate will be young women and in the sample only 13% are young women, it will count every young women in the sample as 15/13 of a person. So, it's not only new polling, which is going on now, but the models themselves that change. Betting markets use these as baselines to establish odds.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
As Joe Biden withdraws from the 2024 US presidential race and Kamala Harris gains support from prominent Democrats, data from Betfair Exchange indicates that her odds are improving.
The vice president still faces a significant challenge to surpass Donald Trump, however, who has maintained strong performance over nearly the past year.
At the start of the 2024 Republican National Convention, just days after Mr Trump's assassination attempt, his chances stood at 69%.
However, this did not significantly dent his lead, likely due to growing concerns about Mr Biden's fitness to remain in office, which ultimately led to his withdrawal from the race.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News.
We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open-source information.
The original article contains 533 words, the summary contains 136 words. Saved 74%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!

19 comments