will twitter last or will it die?

My bets is that Yahoo will buy it for $1B, and then sell it for $3M.

The Twitter will rename to Phoenix and take off again. After yahoo sells it of course.

Same as tumblr, still around, but largely irrelevant.

This seems like the correct answer, but Twitter has (had?) more clout than tumblr did. For example, wasn't Trump announcing things straight to twitter? Tumblr never had that kind of usage.
- Trump turned Twitter into an official channel for correspondence for a short time.

I'm leaning towards die. It would have lasted longer as Twitter. But as X? Old politicians will just get confused where their blue bird app went.

Technically in name it's gone. The remnants of it carry on. Hopefully the public figures and creators migrate to a different platform already because hearing less about Musk would be better for everybody.

Just curious what Musk did wrong. Seems like ever since he said there would be an organized movement against him, what he's said has come true. Makes the hate feel manufactured by a movement.
- I shouldn't feed the trolls...
  
  I suppose the better question is, what did he do right?
  
  Taunted Twitter CEO, culminating in what constituted a valid offer to purchase at a very inflated price
  
  Tried to back out of his legally made offer
  
  Fired the vast majority of staff that knew how to run the site
  
  Fired all of the staff in charge of ethics
  
  Stopped paying rent and other bills, despite having used the location/services
  
  Demanded employees devote their non-sleeping lives to the company
  
  Ignored all his other companies, from which he continues to draw paychecks (ok, maybe ignoring them is for their best interest)
  
  Failed to pay promised severance
  
  Change algorithm to promote his voice above all other
  
  Rebrand off of one of the most recognizable names and logos in the world
  
  And these are the ones just off the top of my head.
- Examples?

AOL and Yahoo are still around, but completely irrelevant now.

Imagine going to AOL for your daily needs. In 2023.

I personally hope it will die more than Tumblr did. More like Myspace. But that doesn't seem likely. In fact, the Facebook case seems closer to it's situation: Biggest social network of the world at one point, struggling simultaneously with scandals, legal issues and new competition; slowly losing it's hegemony but remaining relevant in some places...

tumblr isn't dead??

Tumblr remains impressively Not Dead given its ownership and finance history.

Twitter already died. X (seriously?) almost certainly will too.

I think it will last... Until big companies doesn't use it anymore.

Edit:

I forgot to explain why.

Many big companies uses Twitter to announce things, like new products, updates, etc.

I think when they all stop announcing on Twitter, or even change to another platform to continue their announcement (for example, some of I used to follow have been moved Mastodon), these users will think that there're no reason to use Twitter anymore, then Twitter would less known, and less users use it afterwards.

Which companies are on Mastodon?
- For me, afaik, a local press company I followed a while moved to Mastodon last year, i think that's counts. Rest of them are YouTubers, OSS devs and individual users, etc.
  
  I think Microsoft is on Mastodon too.
  
  Edit: Oops, that's dotnet from MS, it is official account though

Ehm? What twitter? Twitter is dead, long live X.

(which I guess will die a horribly slow and quiet death)

Well, Elon's vision is to turn it into an American "wechat" that has everything a user needs. Sort of like a return to dailup AOL days where you opened up one program for accessing the internet at large. It had chat, web browser, music, etc.

That's his vision. He's going to try and move in that direction, and that's partly the reason for the name change. While definitely ambitious, is it realistic? I don't know. It could be a huge failure, staining Elon's otherwise good track record.

For example with SpaceX he managed to reduce the cost of sending satellites by an absurd amount. From $30,000 per pound of material shot up into space, it went down to $1,200.

If he can do half of what he did with SpaceX at "X" then maybe twitter/x has a chance of not only remaining relevant but becoming something bigger.

However my personal opinion is that he is making poor decision after poor decision and unless he has a 4d chess strategy I'm not seeing it's not going well for him. I'm withholding total judgement for now just to see what he's going to do but honestly it's not looking good.

I guess if he bankrolls it long enough eventually it'll get to be something neat but it definitely feels to me like everything he's done recently is being done in greed, to push twitter blue on everyone, no matter how ridiculous the choices seem up front. Plus putting a bunch of the employees out of work and then memeing about it on twitter rubs me the wrong way.
I never really got how, if the American wechat was his goal, why did he need Twitter at all? They're quite different. Just start x.whatever, right?
I would recommend watching https://yewtu.be/watch?v=F3JTafTEDv0 to see how unviable SpaceX business is.