'There Will Be Blood': JPMorgan Hikes Odds of Trump-Triggered Recession to 60%.
'There Will Be Blood': JPMorgan Hikes Odds of Trump-Triggered Recession to 60%.
Stocks are plummeting and JPMorgan warns of a 60% risk of global recession due to Trump's tariffs.
"The president single-handedly wiped out Americans' retirement savings overnight and subjected businesses to intense whiplash with his increasingly erratic and chaotic policies that continue to drive consumer and business uncertainty."
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The Federal Reserve now projects -3.7% GDP growth in Q1 2025. The 2008 recession was -2.6%, and covid was -2.2, for comparison.
That... Doesn't seem good if I'm being totally honest
-3.7% so far.
Consider this too...Q1 ended on March 31st. They are predicting that drop before all this tariff shit got started.
Hell, Biden was president for 20 of the 90 days in that quarter.
So you're saying it's Bidens fault! /s
Do you have a source? Closest of what I can find is GDPNow https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow . But it is neither an official estimate nor from the federal reserve.
That is the federal reserve. It's composed of 12 district banks and that's one of them.
I thought federal reserve refers to the federal reserve board. And I am also surprised that the fedral reserve banks' website don't get .gov domains.
Not trying to argue with you, the name "federal reserve" is inheritly ambiguous. I am just stating my reason for my original post.
And I am also surprised that the fedral reserve banks' website don't get .gov domains.
The fed is explicitly not a government agency. It is meant to be independent by design.
Yeah, it's definitely confusing, and the news is always loose with the terminology.
The Federal Reserve is the entire system. The board sets policy and the 12 district banks execute it. It's this weird quasi-governmental thing. Nominally it's supposed to be independent and not part of the government even though it was created by an act of Congress and the board is appointed by the president. The idea is that by making it independent, it'll be free from political influence and can focus on its mission, including making tough decisions that will cause pain in the short term.
And note that the Atlanta Fed model has been widely misinterpreted. Imports have surged in anticipation of tariffs, which skews the model (i.e. the exports-imports factor in GDP).
They predict -3.7% if yesterday was somehow the end of it, but we know it's not.
-3.7% would be a dream compared to what's actually likely.
Q1 runs from 1/1 - 3/31. Q2 will be worse if he doesn’t repeal the tariffs.
Lol, if it's gonna happen, can it really get underway in the next 3 weeks?
The Australian Labor party could ride its credentials from the previous recession, which we basically came out of unscathed, into another term of government. Anything to avoid the Libs (the conservatives, confusingly for everyone else outside Australia).
Might be a bit of a stretch though, since we won't be able to sell as much raw materials to China as we did back then.
Anything to keep the Libs out of power, pls.
It's crazy that people thought Trump's plans were a good idea. Or that they still do, even now.