ISW: Putin is creating informational conditions for the future escalation against the Baltic countries
ISW: Putin is creating informational conditions for the future escalation against the Baltic countries
I find it very hard to believe Russia will attack NATO directly.
Russia would quite simply not stand a chance against NATO. Ukraine is fighting valiantly, and has some help with equipment from NATO countries. but NATO forces is a whole other level of military strength.
The aid we have given Ukraine from NATO countries, have barely moved the needle on defense budgets in NATO countries. We have not send much we might need ourselves in a possible confrontation. If we were to get involved directly, NATO is many times stronger than Russia.Some things I’ve been thinking about. If the U.S. pulls out of NATO under Trump, the alliance becomes much easier to push around. Of course, NATO would still easily win a confrontation even without the U.S., but the alliance would effectively fall apart. Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Hungary would withdraw from NATO. Western European markets would struggle significantly with the threat of a direct confrontation with Russia realized.
Russia would remain the shithole country that it is. It’s not like their economy can get worse. Forcing a direct confrontation would result in a quick defeat for Russia, but it would have catastrophic effects on all of Europe, which almost gives Russia the win even with a tactical loss. NATO wouldn’t dare strike within Russia after Putin somehow increases his nuclear saber rattling.
But this of course will only happen if Trump does withdraw the U.S. from NATO. With the U.S. in the alliance, I don’t believe Putin would force a direct confrontation
If the U.S. pulls out of NATO under Trump
If Trump pulls USA out of NATO, it would mean a huge global power shift towards China. It would be an absolute disaster for what we traditionally call the west including USA. Militarily the remaining NATO and Europe will be weakened to half what NATO is with USA, because a lot of the very expensive equipment like Carriers is dominated almost completely by USA. But Europe still has a lot of powerful weapons, like F35, but they haven't really been battle proven yet. Although not as big as USA, UK is still a very significant military force, that also has carrier capability.
the alliance would effectively fall apart. Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Hungary would withdraw from NATO.
I'm not so sure, the reason those countries can play both sides now, is that they are protected by their NATO membership. If USA pulls out, they might think twice about playing the Russian side too, because NATO needs to be united more, to be an effective deterrent against Russia.
Russia would remain the shithole country that it is.
Absolutely, it's so sad to think about how Russia could have been a friend and grown their economy much faster for the past 30 years. Instead Putin chose to build a war chest for Empire building, and encourage corruption for personal gain. They have also sabotaged the Ukrainian economy tremendously, in hindsight it's pretty obvious we should have paid way more attention to Ukraine and helped Ukraine more, and prevented Russian shenanigans instead of trying to please them to avoid conflict, and grant them very profitable deals in the energy sector, despite the obvious corruption and totalitarianism of the country. Money they then used for corruption and to maintain and build their war machine.
But this of course will only happen if Trump does withdraw the U.S. from NATO. With the U.S. in the alliance, I don’t believe Putin would force a direct confrontation
That would for sure be incredibly stupid, but as it turned out, so was the Ukraine invasion. Putin's calculations were blatantly wrong, but It could be a desperate move by Putin, to try to make NATO agree to Russia getting Ukraine without interference from NATO. He will probably soon be a dead man walking anyway, considering how the Ukraine war has been going for him.
Crimea style. Also, no plan survives the contact with the enemy.
Which essentially means that either Putin is bluffing, or believes that he could get away with it.
With Ukraine, even with operational disaster, it would seem he's quite apt at getting away with stuff, and has prepared both political discord and the flexibility to capitalise on the shifting world stage.
Gearing the informational landscape is a commitment of resources, much more than the random blusters and threats they've been throwing around. Russia traditionally has had the capacity for large scale feints and diversions, so I guess we'll have to see what more they're doing and where.