According to this analysis of VAR decisions for the 22/23 season, Liverpool were the joint second beneficiaries of VAR decisions, while City were bottom.
According to this analysis of VAR decisions for the 22/23 season, Liverpool were the joint second beneficiaries of VAR decisions, while City were bottom.
According to this analysis of VAR decisions for the 22/23 season, Liverpool were the joint second beneficiaries of VAR decisions, while City were bottom.
So why do #LFC fans believe there is a conspiracy against them? Where does that belief stem from?
@hallenbeck @football Doesn't this data show that referee are in fact giving too many incorrect decisions against Liverpool and only with VAR are they being corrected?
I don't think that many Liverpool fans think there's a conspiracy against them but there are unconscious biases at play and Paul Tompkins work shows that very clearly.And yeah, the data shows refs are making incorrect decisions and Liverpool are benefiting from VAR overturning those decisions. It doesn't really paint a picture of Liverpool being particularly hard-done-by.
@hallenbeck And I would modify your statement. Liverpool are not "benefiting" from VAR. They are having mistakes be corrected only when there's nowhere to hide. It still points to us being hard done by by the officials on field.
@Jonnojohnson @hallenbeck @football agree wholeheartedly
@Peppermintfresh @hallenbeck @football perfect example again right now. Defender hauls down attacker in the box for a penalty. No yellow card. No one will notice or care but it's an obvious mistake
Would be interested in seeing Paul Tompkins work - can you point to a link?
@hallenbeck This is his shortest version but it links to much deeper versions with more context: https://tomkinstimes.substack.com/p/highlights-refs-vars-and-proving
@hallenbeck @football Well, it's skewed because 1) this is only VAR overturns; and 2) the combination of the high-press and high line they play critically depends on the razor thin margin of leveraging the offside line defensively. #LFC had the highest disallowed goals against with 6, which I'll stipulate means VAR has aided them -- but it also means the officials got it wrong on the field, more than any other team. I don't think there is a conspiracy, but I do think the treatment isn't equal.
@mlawton @hallenbeck@mastodon.online @football
It's too easy to dismiss any critique as a conspiracy without addressing the facts.
A conspiracy doesn't exist, but if somebody had created a conspiracy (a very sloppy one) it would look exactly like the facts everybody has witnessed.
If the logic is that no one is accountable and nothing has to change because a conspiracy didn't exist, that's not the great dismissal some think.
The facts are the facts, it doesn't matter if it was a conspiracy or not.
Every fanbase thinks the refs are out to get them. Liverpool also have a historical reason to distrust authority in the country with the Hillsborough coverage and accusations as well as general Thatcherism
And this is just tracking whether VAR decisions (e.g. corrective reviews) either led to a goal that was disallowed or vice versa, etc..
It isn't tracking issues like what occurred against Spurs or the Rodri handball incident.
It's also a single season of statistics.
The point of this anyway? We trying to act like it wasn't a colossal mistake last weekend?
Exactly. VAR decisions going against you mean refs on the field are calling mistaken calls FOR you. So, having a lot of VAR calls going AGAINST you means you would’ve gotten unfairly favorable treatment but didn’t.
But you ultimately did get favourable treatment. So where does the bias against Liverpool vibe come from?
The analysis also takes into account subjective decisions, not just goals.
I'm not sure every fanbase does think refs are out to get them. I don't get that sense in the Spurs community, for instance. But can't speak for everyone.
So no, I'm just trying to get to the bottom of why Liverpool fans seem to think they get an unfair share of bad decisions leading to talk of conspiracy theories.
Hillsborough and Thatcherism don't seem like particularly valid reasons.
Yes, but by subjective calls do they mean penalty decisions and red cards? What about decisions that are not reviewed? That's what I mean. It's only showing corrective actions.
If you look at the 2021-2022 link, the Rodri handball incident is not included.
Here are a couple pretty biased articles if you want a read.
but some of these are stupid, he most obvious example is the First Arsenal goal disallowed at OT, Odegaard fouls Eriksen the ref is looking straight at it but doesn't whistle, VAR pulls it back and it's given as a foul because it obviously was, then they say VAR shouldn't have intervened because it wasn't a clear and obvious error.
Am I missing something here? I count the total number of net beneficial decisions to be 22, and total number of net disadvantageous decisions to be 21.
Shouldn’t both totals be the same number? When one team gets a beneficial decision, it can only happen at the expense of another team (i.e. it’s a zero-sum game).
I could understand the discrepancy if this analysis were counting games in other competitions, but this is only counting Premier games so I would expect equal totals.
@hallenbeck @football Does this only show that more initially incorrect decisions were made against Brentford, Fulham and Liverpool than against Leeds, Brighton and Man City?
In any case, VAR overturns are such infrequent events that you can't really draw statistically significant conclusions from them.
Yes, I completely agree you can't draw statistically significant conclusions from them.
What it does suggest, however, is that a narrative of VAR being horribly broken with officials being in the pocket of UAE etc and punishing Liverpool doesn't seem to fit? Is VAR correcting any bias?
Anyway, I'll take a good look at that bias data - it's definitely piqued my interest.
Also, thought I'd add, what a thoroughly decent bunch we have here on fedi. So unlike Twitter.
@hallenbeck @football Yes, it's very satisfying to be discussing thr facts of the matter in such a civilised manner!
/tips hat/