Week 5 c/cfb poll

I warned you guys last week my computer poll would get weird this week -- welcome to weird.

The preseason expectations are now completely out of the algorithm, so think of the model as a power rating based on just 4 weeks of data.

My ballot:

::: spoiler Full ranking: | Rank | Change | Team | Record | Points | | ---: | :---: | :--- | :--- | :--- | | T1 | +1 | Florida State | 4-0 | 310 | | T1 | +3 | Texas | 4-0 | 310 | | 3 | -2 | USC | 4-0 | 306 | | 4 | -1 | Washington | 4-0 | 301 | | 5 | +2 | Oklahoma | 4-0 | 284 | | 6 | -1 | Notre Dame | 4-1 | 274 | | 7 | +3 | Duke | 4-0 | 259 | | 8 | -2 | Michigan | 4-0 | 258 | | 9 | +4 | Texas A&M | 3-1 | 254 | | 10 | +2 | Oregon | 4-0 | 251 | | T11 | - | North Carolina | 4-0 | 249 | | T11 | +6 | Alabama | 3-1 | 249 | | 13 | -4 | Ohio State | 4-0 | 248 | | 14 | - | Penn State | 4-0 | 246 | | 15 | +9 | Liberty | 4-0 | 235 | | 16 | +2 | Wisconsin | 3-1 | 233 | | 17 | +3 | Rutgers | 3-1 | 229 | | 18 | +22 | Fresno State | 4-0 | 226 | | 19 | +3 | Maryland | 4-0 | 224 | | 20 | +6 | Miami (FL) | 4-0 | 223 | | 21 | +14 | Ohio | 4-1 | 220 | | T22 | -14 | Georgia | 4-0 | 214 | | T22 | +4 | Louisville | 4-0 | 214 | | T24 | +9 | Kentucky | 4-0 | 212 | | T24 | -3 | Syracuse | 4-0 | 212 | | 26 | +7 | Washington State | 4-0 | 211 | | T27 | -11 | Ole Miss | 3-1 | 207 | | T27 | -1 | Tennessee | 3-1 | 207 | | 29 | +7 | Colorado | 3-1 | 199 | | 30 | -15 | Utah | 4-0 | 198 | | T31 | -7 | Iowa | 3-1 | 196 | | T31 | +9 | Kansas State | 3-1 | 196 | | 33 | -4 | Minnesota | 2-2 | 195 | | 34 | -5 | TCU | 3-1 | 194 | | T35 | +4 | Florida | 3-1 | 193 | | T35 | +18 | Nebraska | 2-2 | 193 | | T37 | +10 | Kansas | 4-0 | 187 | | T37 | -6 | Auburn | 3-1 | 187 | | T37 | - | Oregon State | 3-1 | 187 | | 40 | -21 | LSU | 3-1 | 185 | | T41 | +17 | Air Force | 4-0 | 184 | | T41 | +12 | Northwestern | 2-2 | 184 | | 43 | -1 | UCF | 3-1 | 182 | | 44 | -7 | UCLA | 3-1 | 181 | | T45 | +20 | Georgia State | 4-0 | 177 | | T45 | +8 | Memphis | 3-1 | 177 | | T47 | +16 | Arizona | 3-1 | 175 | | T47 | +20 | Houston | 2-2 | 175 | | 49 | +10 | Vanderbilt | 2-3 | 174 | | 50 | +49 | Georgia Southern | 3-1 | 173 | | 51 | +9 | New Mexico State | 2-3 | 171 | | T52 | -9 | BYU | 3-1 | 170 | | T52 | +40 | Texas State | 3-1 | 170 | | T52 | -3 | Arkansas | 2-2 | 170 | | T52 | +12 | Virginia Tech | 1-3 | 170 | | T56 | -4 | Toledo | 3-1 | 169 | | T56 | +23 | Massachusetts | 1-4 | 169 | | 58 | -8 | Missouri | 4-0 | 167 | | 59 | +13 | West Virginia | 3-1 | 166 | | 60 | +17 | JMU | 4-0 | 165 | | 61 | -15 | Texas Tech | 1-3 | 164 | | 62 | -31 | Clemson | 2-2 | 163 | | T63 | -40 | Tulane | 3-1 | 162 | | T63 | -20 | Illinois | 2-2 | 162 | | T65 | -6 | Wake Forest | 3-1 | 161 | | T65 | +34 | Georgia Tech | 2-2 | 161 | | T65 | +18 | Louisiana Tech | 2-3 | 161 | | T65 | -18 | Purdue | 1-3 | 161 | | T69 | -10 | FIU | 3-2 | 158 | | T69 | -13 | California | 2-2 | 158 | | T71 | -4 | Louisiana | 3-1 | 157 | | T71 | -26 | South Alabama | 2-2 | 157 | | 73 | -6 | San Diego State | 2-3 | 156 | | T74 | +16 | Appalachian State | 2-2 | 155 | | T74 | +12 | Iowa State | 2-2 | 155 | | T76 | -4 | NC State | 3-1 | 154 | | T76 | -10 | South Carolina | 2-2 | 154 | | T78 | -8 | SMU | 2-2 | 153 | | T78 | -21 | UTSA | 1-3 | 153 | | 80 | -29 | Miami (OH) | 3-1 | 152 | | 81 | +15 | UNLV | 3-1 | 151 | | T82 | +40 | Jacksonville State | 3-1 | 150 | | T82 | +5 | Army | 2-2 | 150 | | T82 | +1 | Cincinnati | 2-2 | 150 | | 85 | +16 | Hawaii | 2-3 | 147 | | T86 | -7 | Mississippi State | 2-2 | 145 | | T86 | +4 | Oklahoma State | 2-2 | 145 | | T88 | -10 | Wyoming | 3-1 | 140 | | T88 | +3 | Coastal Carolina | 2-2 | 140 | | T90 | -18 | Old Dominion | 2-2 | 137 | | T90 | -8 | Pittsburgh | 1-3 | 137 | | 92 | -5 | UTEP | 1-4 | 136 | | 93 | +19 | Indiana | 2-2 | 133 | | T94 | -1 | Rice | 2-2 | 131 | | T94 | -23 | San Jose State | 1-4 | 131 | | 96 | -3 | Northern Illinois | 1-3 | 130 | | T97 | +8 | USF | 2-2 | 128 | | T97 | +17 | Virginia | 0-4 | 128 | | 99 | +8 | Utah State | 1-3 | 127 | | T100 | +13 | Marshall | 3-0 | 125 | | T100 | -7 | Boise State | 2-2 | 125 | | T100 | +18 | Akron | 1-3 | 125 | | 103 | -1 | Boston College | 1-3 | 122 | | T104 | -7 | Michigan State | 2-2 | 119 | | T104 | -17 | Troy | 2-2 | 119 | | T104 | +12 | Colorado State | 1-2 | 119 | | T104 | +14 | Stanford | 1-3 | 119 | | 108 | +10 | Central Michigan | 2-2 | 117 | | T109 | +14 | Charlotte | 1-3 | 116 | | T109 | -5 | FAU | 1-3 | 116 | | T109 | -34 | Connecticut | 0-4 | 116 | | 112 | -9 | Eastern Michigan | 2-2 | 115 | | 113 | -16 | Western Kentucky | 2-2 | 114 | | 114 | +12 | New Mexico | 2-2 | 108 | | 115 | -36 | Baylor | 1-3 | 106 | | 116 | -8 | ECU | 1-3 | 102 | | 117 | -1 | Middle Tennessee | 1-3 | 102 | | 118 | -10 | Arizona State | 1-3 | 101 | | 119 | -14 | Temple | 2-2 | 99 | | T120 | -2 | UAB | 1-3 | 97 | | T120 | -5 | Buffalo | 0-4 | 97 | | T122 | -47 | UNT | 1-2 | 96 | | T122 | +7 | Sam Houston | 0-3 | 96 | | 124 | -16 | Bowling Green | 1-3 | 94 | | 125 | +7 | Tulsa | 2-2 | 88 | | 126 | +5 | Nevada | 0-4 | 86 | | 127 | -3 | Southern Mississippi | 1-3 | 82 | | 128 | - | Western Michigan | 1-3 | 78 | | 129 | +4 | Arkansas State | 2-2 | 77 | | 130 | -22 | Navy | 1-2 | 67 | | 131 | -7 | UL Monroe | 2-1 | 65 | | 132 | -5 | Ball State | 1-3 | 64 | | 133 | -3 | Kent State | 1-3 | 60 |

5 comments

I got my poll in. This one has probably been the hardest so far to rank. I had probably about 8 teams I could have put anywhere from 23-30 and so it was hard to decide the last 3 spots in my poll. At first I thought the AP was kind of ridiculous ranking Fresno St at 25 but 2 road wins against power 5 schools is a lot better resume than some other power 5 teams have, even if its two of the worst power 5 schools this season. I ended up ranking Fresno 24th.
- Those last couple of spots proved tricky for me as well, and looking at the current ballots we may not be alone
I warned you guys last week my computer poll would get weird this week -- welcome to weird.
The preseason expectations are now completely out of the algorithm, so think of the model as a power rating based on just 4 weeks of data.
My ballot:
::: spoiler Full ranking: | Rank | Change | Team | Record | Points | | ---: | :---: | :--- | :--- | :--- | | T1 | +1 | Florida State | 4-0 | 310 | | T1 | +3 | Texas | 4-0 | 310 | | 3 | -2 | USC | 4-0 | 306 | | 4 | -1 | Washington | 4-0 | 301 | | 5 | +2 | Oklahoma | 4-0 | 284 | | 6 | -1 | Notre Dame | 4-1 | 274 | | 7 | +3 | Duke | 4-0 | 259 | | 8 | -2 | Michigan | 4-0 | 258 | | 9 | +4 | Texas A&M | 3-1 | 254 | | 10 | +2 | Oregon | 4-0 | 251 | | T11 | - | North Carolina | 4-0 | 249 | | T11 | +6 | Alabama | 3-1 | 249 | | 13 | -4 | Ohio State | 4-0 | 248 | | 14 | - | Penn State | 4-0 | 246 | | 15 | +9 | Liberty | 4-0 | 235 | | 16 | +2 | Wisconsin | 3-1 | 233 | | 17 | +3 | Rutgers | 3-1 | 229 | | 18 | +22 | Fresno State | 4-0 | 226 | | 19 | +3 | Maryland | 4-0 | 224 | | 20 | +6 | Miami (FL) | 4-0 | 223 | | 21 | +14 | Ohio | 4-1 | 220 | | T22 | -14 | Georgia | 4-0 | 214 | | T22 | +4 | Louisville | 4-0 | 214 | | T24 | +9 | Kentucky | 4-0 | 212 | | T24 | -3 | Syracuse | 4-0 | 212 | | 26 | +7 | Washington State | 4-0 | 211 | | T27 | -11 | Ole Miss | 3-1 | 207 | | T27 | -1 | Tennessee | 3-1 | 207 | | 29 | +7 | Colorado | 3-1 | 199 | | 30 | -15 | Utah | 4-0 | 198 | | T31 | -7 | Iowa | 3-1 | 196 | | T31 | +9 | Kansas State | 3-1 | 196 | | 33 | -4 | Minnesota | 2-2 | 195 | | 34 | -5 | TCU | 3-1 | 194 | | T35 | +4 | Florida | 3-1 | 193 | | T35 | +18 | Nebraska | 2-2 | 193 | | T37 | +10 | Kansas | 4-0 | 187 | | T37 | -6 | Auburn | 3-1 | 187 | | T37 | - | Oregon State | 3-1 | 187 | | 40 | -21 | LSU | 3-1 | 185 | | T41 | +17 | Air Force | 4-0 | 184 | | T41 | +12 | Northwestern | 2-2 | 184 | | 43 | -1 | UCF | 3-1 | 182 | | 44 | -7 | UCLA | 3-1 | 181 | | T45 | +20 | Georgia State | 4-0 | 177 | | T45 | +8 | Memphis | 3-1 | 177 | | T47 | +16 | Arizona | 3-1 | 175 | | T47 | +20 | Houston | 2-2 | 175 | | 49 | +10 | Vanderbilt | 2-3 | 174 | | 50 | +49 | Georgia Southern | 3-1 | 173 | | 51 | +9 | New Mexico State | 2-3 | 171 | | T52 | -9 | BYU | 3-1 | 170 | | T52 | +40 | Texas State | 3-1 | 170 | | T52 | -3 | Arkansas | 2-2 | 170 | | T52 | +12 | Virginia Tech | 1-3 | 170 | | T56 | -4 | Toledo | 3-1 | 169 | | T56 | +23 | Massachusetts | 1-4 | 169 | | 58 | -8 | Missouri | 4-0 | 167 | | 59 | +13 | West Virginia | 3-1 | 166 | | 60 | +17 | JMU | 4-0 | 165 | | 61 | -15 | Texas Tech | 1-3 | 164 | | 62 | -31 | Clemson | 2-2 | 163 | | T63 | -40 | Tulane | 3-1 | 162 | | T63 | -20 | Illinois | 2-2 | 162 | | T65 | -6 | Wake Forest | 3-1 | 161 | | T65 | +34 | Georgia Tech | 2-2 | 161 | | T65 | +18 | Louisiana Tech | 2-3 | 161 | | T65 | -18 | Purdue | 1-3 | 161 | | T69 | -10 | FIU | 3-2 | 158 | | T69 | -13 | California | 2-2 | 158 | | T71 | -4 | Louisiana | 3-1 | 157 | | T71 | -26 | South Alabama | 2-2 | 157 | | 73 | -6 | San Diego State | 2-3 | 156 | | T74 | +16 | Appalachian State | 2-2 | 155 | | T74 | +12 | Iowa State | 2-2 | 155 | | T76 | -4 | NC State | 3-1 | 154 | | T76 | -10 | South Carolina | 2-2 | 154 | | T78 | -8 | SMU | 2-2 | 153 | | T78 | -21 | UTSA | 1-3 | 153 | | 80 | -29 | Miami (OH) | 3-1 | 152 | | 81 | +15 | UNLV | 3-1 | 151 | | T82 | +40 | Jacksonville State | 3-1 | 150 | | T82 | +5 | Army | 2-2 | 150 | | T82 | +1 | Cincinnati | 2-2 | 150 | | 85 | +16 | Hawaii | 2-3 | 147 | | T86 | -7 | Mississippi State | 2-2 | 145 | | T86 | +4 | Oklahoma State | 2-2 | 145 | | T88 | -10 | Wyoming | 3-1 | 140 | | T88 | +3 | Coastal Carolina | 2-2 | 140 | | T90 | -18 | Old Dominion | 2-2 | 137 | | T90 | -8 | Pittsburgh | 1-3 | 137 | | 92 | -5 | UTEP | 1-4 | 136 | | 93 | +19 | Indiana | 2-2 | 133 | | T94 | -1 | Rice | 2-2 | 131 | | T94 | -23 | San Jose State | 1-4 | 131 | | 96 | -3 | Northern Illinois | 1-3 | 130 | | T97 | +8 | USF | 2-2 | 128 | | T97 | +17 | Virginia | 0-4 | 128 | | 99 | +8 | Utah State | 1-3 | 127 | | T100 | +13 | Marshall | 3-0 | 125 | | T100 | -7 | Boise State | 2-2 | 125 | | T100 | +18 | Akron | 1-3 | 125 | | 103 | -1 | Boston College | 1-3 | 122 | | T104 | -7 | Michigan State | 2-2 | 119 | | T104 | -17 | Troy | 2-2 | 119 | | T104 | +12 | Colorado State | 1-2 | 119 | | T104 | +14 | Stanford | 1-3 | 119 | | 108 | +10 | Central Michigan | 2-2 | 117 | | T109 | +14 | Charlotte | 1-3 | 116 | | T109 | -5 | FAU | 1-3 | 116 | | T109 | -34 | Connecticut | 0-4 | 116 | | 112 | -9 | Eastern Michigan | 2-2 | 115 | | 113 | -16 | Western Kentucky | 2-2 | 114 | | 114 | +12 | New Mexico | 2-2 | 108 | | 115 | -36 | Baylor | 1-3 | 106 | | 116 | -8 | ECU | 1-3 | 102 | | 117 | -1 | Middle Tennessee | 1-3 | 102 | | 118 | -10 | Arizona State | 1-3 | 101 | | 119 | -14 | Temple | 2-2 | 99 | | T120 | -2 | UAB | 1-3 | 97 | | T120 | -5 | Buffalo | 0-4 | 97 | | T122 | -47 | UNT | 1-2 | 96 | | T122 | +7 | Sam Houston | 0-3 | 96 | | 124 | -16 | Bowling Green | 1-3 | 94 | | 125 | +7 | Tulsa | 2-2 | 88 | | 126 | +5 | Nevada | 0-4 | 86 | | 127 | -3 | Southern Mississippi | 1-3 | 82 | | 128 | - | Western Michigan | 1-3 | 78 | | 129 | +4 | Arkansas State | 2-2 | 77 | | 130 | -22 | Navy | 1-2 | 67 | | 131 | -7 | UL Monroe | 2-1 | 65 | | 132 | -5 | Ball State | 1-3 | 64 | | 133 | -3 | Kent State | 1-3 | 60 |
- You know what, I'm not even mad. I wanted to be mad your computer didn't think of us, but I'm mostly just impressed. I also now feel justified with trending up on Syracuse. They were one of my honorable mentions and it's totally based on gut (record and recognition biases baby!)
- I have one more week of pre-season expectations being factored in, but my poll is similarly nutty. Glad I'm not the only one.