Best I can tell 2 billion people use Facebook every day.
Either Facebook marketplace has the trade volume of a medium-sized continent or there are way more boomers than you think.
As is often the case with Meta stuff, anglo people and westerners in general tend to think usage works in ways it just doesn't. There are entire parts of the planet where Facebook never died and is THE social network, if not the Internet.
I've been noticing more ads posted up in the neighborhood recently, I feel like people who are off Facebook are looking for new ways to contact those outside their social circles.
I love the idea of friendica but until my mother can upload a video and view it on a feed it's just not going to work. I've tried it out many times over the years and I just can't recommend it as a Facebook replacement for nontechnical users, not even just for sharing with family.
My fantasy is Apple heating up a feud with Facebook and integrating some kind of “self hosting” into the iPhone. EG our Moms “upload” the video, but what really happens under the hood is the phone streams the video on demand to her family. IIRC there are similar swarming schemes out there already.
It sounds crazy, and it used to be, but smartphones/modems are so fast now they could host little web servers on their efficiency cores, without breaking a sweat.
…Otherwise, this is a difficult issue, as video is so expensive to centrally host.
In regards to storage costs, I'm happy to self host a good solution. But right now there are none.
Your idea about streaming from phones is pretty nice but as someone who uses lots of background data, it can suck up your battery. A good idea though and I don't think that stops it being feasible.
There was a project called Circles that used a Matrix server to host private rooms you could invite people to where it was more like a feed, with photo galleries and videos and things. It got funding pulled but as far as I could tell it didn't really have a future because they hit the limits of the technology stack, but it was a cool idea that was simple enough that you'd be able to get non-tech users onboard. Project is basically dead now though.
Apple is working on competing with AWS. Maybe they could offer hosting services for fediverse projects and provide a few grants to shiny platforms to reduce reliance on X and Facebook.
Fb was successful because it targeted small groups to start. I think 8 universities, one was western. They got to be ubiquitous there then slowly expanded. So people could see why it was desirable.
Picking up random people from around the internet hasn't worked on the multiple attempts starting with diaspora.