The Breaking Point: Assessing the Worsening Russian Economy in July 2025 and the Costs of War
The Breaking Point: Assessing the Worsening Russian Economy in July 2025 and the Costs of War
As of July 2025, the Russian economy stands in a state of profound deterioration, warped and exhausted by over three years of full-scale war against Ukraine, and a decade of increasingly aggressive foreign policy that has triggered repeated rounds of Western sanctions, capital flight and strategic i...
Structural Disintegration (12–24 months): Key sectors—particularly energy, defence manufacturing, and logistics—face system-wide failures due to technological decay and manpower depletion. Inflation surges, and real incomes plummet.
Political-Economic Crisis (2+ years): Economic conditions begin to catalyse political instability, regional disobedience and elite fragmentation. Capital flight accelerates. The system becomes ungovernable except through martial rule and widespread purges.
I take this as Vlad can hold on at most 3 more years.
There are so many countries even further down this path of collapse whose leaders hold on for long long periods. I mean if Russia follows the Syria recipe, then Putin’s children will rule for decades after he dies.
One loves to hear it. I wonder if, when faced with total collapse, Putin will Ozymandias Russia for his own hubris. Will he fall from a window before then?