Putin Still Holds All the Cards in Ukraine, With No Reason to Fold
Putin Still Holds All the Cards in Ukraine, With No Reason to Fold
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Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
25 comments
25 comments
Putin Still Holds All the Cards in Ukraine, With No Reason to Fold
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
This is what the EU should propose to Putin. Russia will withdraw from all land it seized from Ukraine after the 2022 invasion. NATO would be dissolved and replaced with a European alliance. Ukraine and Canada would be permitted to join but not the US. If Putin doesn't accept the proposal, the UK and France would send troops to Ukraine.
Why would Russia agree to that?
Russia would gain Crimea, the US military would no longer be in Europe, sanctions against Russia would be lifted, and with UK and French troops in Ukraine, Russia would not be able to conquer Ukraine.
There is zero chance of Russia withdrawing from the current territories at this point. Also, why would Russia give shit if France and UK sent troops to Ukraine. Russian army is at around 1.5 million troops, while the EU could scrape up a few thousand troops at best. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/british-army-troops-ukraine-defence-b2701635.html
Meanwhile, the US provides the bulk of NATO accounting for over 70% of arms and majority of the troops. Without the US, there is no NATO. Anybody who understands basic arithmetic can see how absurd this whole notion is.
Numbers alone don't count. During World War II, Germany could have conquered Russia if it didn't have to fight the powerful US in the west. That's the reason Putin might accept the plan. Without the US in Europe, Putin might think he can conquer Europe.
I don't understand why this was downvoted, if such a proposal had been made in 2022 during first Istanbul talks, it could have prevented another three years of meatgrinder. As during those talks Russia openly discussed getting troops back to pre-2022 border as possible option, and European alliance instead of NATO (i.e. no US troops and nukes in Europe) is also offer that is hard to ignore. So after some negotiation it might become a deal; sadly noone offered that.
The difference is that Trump doesn't seem interested defending Europe. The EU should use this to bargain with Putin regarding Ukraine.