Election Day Discussion thread [Monday April 28]
Election Day Discussion thread [Monday April 28]
Who will form the next government in Canada? Follow live election results on April 28, with breakdowns from your riding and races across the country.
EDIT: If the elections.ca website is down for you, see here
Election Information
I recommend that you check the links yourself! I've copied some of the information below:
Ways to vote
See this page for full details.
Vote on election day (April 28)
- Check the hours for your timezone
- Check your polling station on your voter information card or by using the Voter Information Service website.
Vote by mail
- This method is for those who requested mail-in ballots a while back.
- Make sure that you get in your ballot on time: elections.ca/voting-by-mail
- uses the special ballot process
Special Ballots
Remember: Once you apply to vote by special ballot, you can't change your mind and vote at advance polls or on election day.
See this page for deadlines for when you can apply for one, and when they must receive it by. It also has information on what you must do differently when filling out this ballot: https://www.elections.ca/content2.aspx?section=vote&dir=spe&document=index&lang=e
If you are having any issues, reach out to your local Elections Canada office to know your options.
Data on your district:
Find your riding, your local Elections Canada office, and your candidates by using the search on the homepage: elections.ca
You can also use the detailed search at: elections.ca/scripts/vis/FindED
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Just in case anyone is using 338 for info:
- the higher voter turnout so far indicates this type of model will be less accurate this election.
- the riding numbers are from provincial polling, there is no per riding polling incorporated. With increased turnout, I expect these to be less accurate.
- the model works by rating pollsters based on how well the predict past elections. That’s why increased turnout means things may swing from their forecast.
All that adds up to the potential for huge swings in votes, swings that can go either direction.
Things to watch for:
- Gen Z men’s rightward swing. Expect high turnout from this group for the Conservatives. They consume a lot of right wing media and have been struggling with tough economic conditions, so will be motivated.
- Boomer influence is waning — this is the first election they are not the largest demographic.
- Gen X are actually wealthier than boomers and are the only demographic that en masse had better economic outlooks since COVID. I don’t know if they’re going to stay the coarse with LPC or vote CPC for the tax cuts, traditionally more income swings right, especially with how Pollievre wants to change housing taxes
- Older women and Quebec are very anti-Pollievre, this might end up with a suppressed vote or a very strong vote LPC.
- Rural areas I think will swing more conservative than ever, and this might be where the forecasts swing. E.g. rural Ontario may not be as safe as thought.
TLDR be prepared for surprises today.
I'm gen-x, my kids are Z. We all voted ABC.
Yep. BC. Habitual NDP voter, first time liberal voter.
The problem with the Conservative vote is it's very concentrated in provinces with less seats. Winning AB/SK/MB won't matter if you lose enough seats in BC/ON/PQ, mostly ON.
I think they might pick up seats in areas like Ontario and Manitoba, even areas like Hamilton.
That’s my concern anyway.
They did much better in ON that many thought, but they lost and Pierre lost his seat. So that's great news.
I’m personally pretty happy with the outcome overall
But yeah exactly what I was thinking would happen did.
Poll aggregators undercounted less traditional voters but did count things like older conservatives moving liberal.
I don’t think this is a “shy conservative” phenomenon, which CBC and polling companies are talking about that a lot today. it’s really a failure in models to adapt to non baseline conditions, and this was sort of a black swan election.
That became clear to me when advanced turnout was so high.
I think the future for models should be to incorporate more “causal” style models, and for pollsters to break their traditional voter demographics up more. Right now it’s not granular enough.
They talked about having higher numbers skewing the models so yeah, it'll be something that'll adjust over time. I'm quite happy with how everything turned out.