they sampled an incredibly small sample size. It's extremely easy to get fucked up results from assuming that you can make a poll representative of Americans as a whole. Like. where I live... most people in the state want him locked up (or you know. burned at the stake.)
and that assumes the poll wasn't meant to get this result (for example polling in ways that get maybe more conservative democrats. or people simply lying and saying they're democrats.)
Actually the sample size checks out. I love it when people see "Smol number not as big as big number, therefore sample size bad" and I am going to pull a very elitist argument here and say that people at Harvard University likely know more about polling than you do, just saying.
A sample size of 2090, as in this study, is large enough to bring the margin of error down to 2%.
Furthermore, there is no need to speculate about who they polled, because this information is available. Questioning the results of the poll is as unreasonable as 2020 Trump supporters questioning every poll that showed Biden with an advantage.
The section that says "Results were weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income,
employment, education, political party, and political ideology where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online." kinda sticks out to me, too.
Agreed. This poll is hard to believe. There was another one last week saying a majority agreed with the indictment. There’s lies, dammed lies, and polls.
Take this with a grain of salt. A pollster can come up with any results they want if they ask the question carefully.
This is almost certainly something put out by Trump’s team to manipulate public opinion. It’s bullshit and not worth anyone’s energy.
Harris Polls has been described as " when Harvard Poll meets Fox News" and "cherrypicks to advance agendas". Just like when looking into bias of news sources, it's important to look into the bias of polling sources.
It seems like you're thinking of this article, which is talking about Fox News misrepresenting a Harris poll, and the Fox "journalists" cherry-picking to fit an agenda. That article isn't criticizing Harris, which mostly over exaggerated Democrat victory in the 2020 elections. Not saying they're not biased, but it seems like you may have misunderstood a source?
I'd take this with a grain of salt. Mark Penn, chairman of The Harris Poll and one of three who supervised this poll, is a known Trump supporter who believes in the Democratic "deep state" conspiracy theory. Dritan Nesho, CEO of HarrisX and the second person supervising this poll, tries to appear bipartisan in public, is a little more discreet but is also a Trump supporter. I gave up looking up stuff on these people cuz I feel gross now. Dunno how The Harris Poll and HarrisX are affiliated. Yeah this poll is b.s.
It's silly to judge a polling outfit solely on the politics of their CEO.
FWIW, 538 gave Harris a "B" grade with 83% accuracy in 2020. If anything, Harris seemed to overestimate Biden's support (eg they predicted Trump would lose FL and NC).
Their accuracy of their election prediction is separate from their polling bias. I mentioned in a higher comment that their polling technique has been described as "when Harvard Poll meets Fox News" and that they "cherrypick to advance agendas"
In almost every case, ~85% of GOP study participants voted along party lines, whereas only 67% of democrats did... making the "majority" result the GOP-aligned one. I think the extreme nature of identity politics in the last few years especially is really making it hard to take any poll results like this particularly seriously.
The precedent is that Nixon was pardoned & people cannot wrap their minds around the idea of an ex-president serving a prison sentence.
We are at the beginning of his first criminal prosecution for something other than behavior relating to sex and money. The number of people wanting him to be pardoned is likely to fall as strong evidence is presented, and as he is charged in other venues for additional harm committed against the nation. During the course of his trial(s) more citizens will come to understand how he has endangered the safety of specific individuals serving this country as well as general welfare and security. I imagine there are bombshells yet to be disclosed. Having said all that a certain percentage will never wish to see him behind bars, but I believe a majority will come to believe that it is right.
I admire your confidence but I'm not altogether sure it will go down like that. Given the cognitive dissonance in his voter base on the one hand and the cult of personality making plenty of his voters plain don't care about anything he does, I think I'll reserve judgement for now. If he gets convicted, does it even prevent him from running?
I recommend the realistic perspective offered by Teri Kanefield. I started following her on Twitter. Now she's very active on Mastodon and as a blogger. [See @Teri_Kanefield or https://law-and-politics.online/@Teri_Kanefield or https://terikanefield.com/] Like her, I would say that I do not feel confident or optimistic, but I also try to avoid being fatalistic. I do not expect his most ardent supporters to change their views no matter what, but I do not think that they are anywhere close to 53% of the population. All I'm really saying is that I believe that after a trial, or several trials, the number of Americans wanting him to be pardoned would fall below half. It's just a guess based on how little is known now. To be up front, I didn't read the linked article, I'm only commenting on that 53% result. This poll was taken at a time when we have less information than we will at the end of trial(s). Also, if you just picture "ex-Pres Trump in jail" many of us squeal with glee but many Americans probably can't picture it. Let's say that during the course of the trial(s) there is discussion about how his incarceration might look—possibilities from supervised house arrest with media blackouts to some comfortable quarters within a secure military base. Talking about it makes the possibility take shape. Some portion of that 53% might be comfortable with the image of him playing golf, dressed in polos not orange jumpsuits, but restricted in terms of movement and communications.
In answer to your question, convicted felons are not prevented from running for president. One upshot of this is that political prosecution is not a thing in the US. We show our judgment when we vote, and that collective judgment is considered to be above all other factors. Obviously a large percentage of us have poor judgment, much of it based on disinformation. The solution to everything is voting, and convincing others to vote—particularly the cynical and low information types. Our media is personality driven but liking or not liking Trump, Biden, Kamala personally is so much less important than voting for democracy over fascism.
It is just one poll. One poll has the same amount of predictive power as a slice of bread.
Also, that being said, polls aren't meant to be predictive, they capture the feelings of the people being polled, at that point in time. Trump's legal woes are just beginning, he's probably got another state indictment in Georgia coming in July and potentially a second from special counsel Jack Smith with regards to January 6th. There is still plenty of time and material to come that will sway people's hearts and minds.
“This survey was conducted online within the United States from June 14-15, 2023 among 2,090 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX.
Results were weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income, employment, education, political party, and political ideology where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.
The poll was supervised by pollsters: Mark Penn (Chairman, The Harris Poll) Dritan Nesho (CEO, HarrisX)
Stephen Ansolabehere (Professor and CAPS Director Emeritus, Harvard University)”
2000 something sample size is pretty small, and the weighted and propensity score is “intriguing”.
As much as a foundational understanding of statistics would go a long way towards making the average citizen substantially better-informed, stuff like this sometimes makes my shoulders sag in despair. Even if you know the basics, the corrections, weighting, and methodologies used to try and tease the/a 'truth' out of a sample are often so arcane that it feels as though you know nothing at all, and are right back to square zero: do I trust these results at all, or no?
What a mess. I really don't want to believe that a slim majority of Americans want us to go the Nixon route, but it's hard to tell where my suspicion of the methods used begins to blend into bias...
Harris polls are supposed to be very reputable. But considering this guy couldn't even win the popular vote, how the hell do more than half of people want him pardoned?
Regarding President Joe Biden, Trump’s disinformation campaign against him and his son, Hunter, also appears to have taken root in voters’ minds. The majority of respondents, 55 percent, said the FBI is “not really investigating” corruption allegations against Biden while 57 percent believe Biden “took a $5 million bribe” while serving as vice president, despite no evidence of that occurring.
53%? I'm wondering what questions were asked, and how. For example, would they want Trump pardoned if the alternative is being sent to a maximum security prison? Minimum security? House arrest? How many of them understand the seriousness of the charges? Should all people accused of those crimes be pardoned? If not, then why is an ex-President different, and what does that say about our justice system?