1y ago

SBSQ #12: Will the polls lowball Trump again?

www.natesilver.net

Title is hyperbole. Essentially the answer is maybe but most likely not. Has a discussion about potential poll error in the context of precision vs. accuracy. Notes that the model assumes accuracy but not precision.

3 comments

TL;DR Here’s how my model works model model model anyway you gotta subscribe to hear the answer.
- For what it's worth, the first sentence after the subscriber paywall is this,
  My short answer is "no". Indeed, if I thought polling was predicatbly biased, I'd have built that into the model somehow.
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