SBSQ #12: Will the polls lowball Trump again?
SBSQ #12: Will the polls lowball Trump again?
www.natesilver.net SBSQ #12: Will the polls lowball Trump again?
Plus, the mistakes I made in the “data journalism” era.
Title is hyperbole. Essentially the answer is maybe but most likely not. Has a discussion about potential poll error in the context of precision vs. accuracy. Notes that the model assumes accuracy but not precision.
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TL;DR Here’s how my model works model model model anyway you gotta subscribe to hear the answer.
For what it's worth, the first sentence after the subscriber paywall is this,
My short answer is "no". Indeed, if I thought polling was predicatbly biased, I'd have built that into the model somehow.
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