Kyiv wants to launch Anglo-French Storm Shadow missiles at Russia’s heartlands as ‘demonstration’ attacks
Ukraine wants permission from the west to use long-range Storm Shadow missiles to destroy targets deep inside Russia, believing this could force Moscow into negotiating an end to the fighting.
Senior figures in Kyiv have suggested that using the Anglo-French weapons in a “demonstration attack” will show the Kremlin that military sites near the capital itself could be vulnerable to direct strikes.
The thinking, according to a senior government official, is that Russia will consider negotiating only if it believes Ukraine had the ability “to threaten Moscow and St Petersburg”. This is a high-risk strategy, however, and does not so far have the support of the US.
Ukraine has been lobbying for months to be allowed to use Storm Shadow against targets inside Russia, but with little success. Nevertheless, as its army struggles on the eastern front, there is a growing belief that its best hope lies in counter-attack.
The message wouldn't be to Putin directly. It would be to those both in his power base, or capable of disrupting it.
The goal would be to push Russians to the point they deal with Putin internally, and/or put putin in a position where he needs to end the war to stabilise his own position. It's all about making the right people feel the effects.
Oh, and as a European, I think the risk is acceptable. If Putin struck at a NATO country, the results would likely be swift and short. The only unknown would be Russian nukes, and even those are far more of an unknown than most people think.
An all out war is unlikely, since if NATO involvement was going to kick that off it would have done so by now.
The next point of escalation that could start something bigger would be stuff like NATO openly sending troops or actively providing fire support.
US hesitation to allow our hardware to be used for this type of attack is much more to do with the political issues surrounding the war being framed as a proxy war instead of defensive support.
The electorates support for "saving the day" and "superior US hardware helping keep a country free" is high. Support for a protracted and complex proxy war without clear right and wrong sides is exhausting and hits too many Iraq/Afghanistan buttons for people to care.
Asking for and publicly being denied permission to bomb targets adjacent to the capitol does just as well at communicating "we can bomb your capitol" as actually doing it.
As long as their demonstration is against military targets (and not what Israel would classify as a "military targets"), I say let them. Bomb every Russian military base within 200 miles of Ukraine into a crater. Russia only seems to respond to a show of force, unfortunately with its current leadership, so give it to them.
I just feel bad for the Russians who have to live under Putin's rule. I know several Russians who have fled Russia to avoid drafts or persecution. Hearing them talk about how they "probably will never be able to go home again" is heartbreaking.
Sooner or later Ukraine will start manufacturing their own such weapons. They have demonstrated time and again that they the ability to be creative and do what the world never expected of them.
Holding them back at this point is just prolonging the war.
No. Ukraine is not the US or Russia, it is more on the scale of Germany. It does not have an industrial base outside the range of Russian bombardment (which was also a problem for Germany in ww2). Any advanced weapons systems they use will have to come from outside.
In 2012, Ukraine's export-oriented arms industry had reached the status of world's 4th largest arms exporter.[1]Since the start of the war in Donbas, Ukraine's military industry has focused more on its internal arms market and as a result slipped to the 9th spot among top global arms exporters by 2015,[2]11th spot by 2018,[3] and the 12th spot among global arms exporters by 2019.
I realize that this Kursk offensive by Ukraine was probably also used to show allied nations, "See? We literally just invaded and took over a bunch of land in Russia and they did nothing different. Give us permission."
It was intended to draw Russian forces away from the south, where the Ukrainians were unable to reclaim territory.
Ukraine wrecked a bunch of facilities up north, but they're far too drawn out up there to hold any territory. It's more war of attrition at a faster pace.
True there are several reasons for their offensive into Kursk: 1) Negotiation leverage 2) Diversion of resources for Russia 3) Adding an air-defense buffer, 4) Breaking into the echo-chamber of domestic Russian propaganda, etc. but I just thought of this one to add to the list. Was honestly a pretty great strategic move by Ukraine.
It genuinely feels like western countries are content to allow the war to drag out for the sake of sacrificing Ukraine to destroy Russia's population. We should be allowing them to aggressively push into Russia, taking the fight off their own territory and moving the war towards a faster conclusion.
Their reasoning is too plausible though. I also don’t want to die is a fiery world ending holocaust, nor would I trust Putin to not take that option if backed into a corner
As a Russian, I am surprised that this is still a question. Like, duh, it's a war, not a hockey game, bomb right away, what the fuck are you waiting for. I have serious doubts about it turning the tide of war, though, but who am I to tell them what to (not) do.
Obviously it’s a great option for Ukraine in the context of the current war. However what do you say to concerns that Russia might take that as direct involvement by other countries, escalating the war to something much bigger? WWIII is not an ok option for any of us, nor is Russia losing a comforting choice
As long as there are no troops under the NATO flag inside Russian territory, I think we're in the clear. They can be deployed to defend Ukraine no problem because Putin claims that they already are. Any country can also join under their own volition - I'm pretty sure Russian military had already had direct engagements with French troops in Africa and nobody even batted an eye.
My concern is based on the assumption that nobody actually cares about Ukraine enough to send their military in. Under this assumption, Ukraine is massively outnumbered and the only reason it isn't steamrolled yet is because Russia can't really deploy their entire military under the risk of massive draft dodging and revolts. Everybody who gave any shit about Donbas is already on the frontline. The only way for Russian government to gather more is by inviting Ukraine to bomb civilian targets in it's own territory. By doing it, they can draft more troops under the pretense of defending the motherland, rather than just dying in a pointless conquest.
Honestly I'd be so happy for the people there to get out from under Muscovite oppression. As a resource-rich country it could be truly great. Instead, a barbaric war of conquest.
My concern with this approach would be the unhinged retaliatory response from the world's. Richest dictator. I mean I'm just a pothead from the US so I imagine some military strategist has accounted for this... But it's kinda hard to imagine how crazy is gonna act
A big difference is that unlike Russia, they didn't immediately annex the region, without even controlling the capital. They even announced that annexation isn't happening. They plan on returning this buffer zone/bargaining chip, once they have a guarantee that Russia will put an end to the endless invasions they've been partaking in since the federation's inception. Or at least on their territory, but it would be nice if they stopped being a terrorist state.
Also Ukraine has proven to be a MUCH more merciful invader than Russia, it's not even comparable. Actually proving the smallest amount of basic needs and help with evacuation for the occupied population. As opposed to RAPING THEM TO DEATH! Russia's army manages to commit worse atrocities while running away than the invading Ukranian force, it's honestly unbelievable... Plundering their own. You can't make this shit up.
Russia still in their territory give them money well actually give them a lot of stuff we were going throw away. I don't think someone knows how this works
I know how it works. It's just gross. Watching seemingly endless money get poured into a war machine so we can get right up on russias border.. And at the end of the day, Flint Michigan still has undrinkable water. Guess I'm just getting a bit tired of suffering getting the lion share of our tax dollar.
That’s exactly what we don’t want. There is no reason to allow Ukraine to escalate the war on our dime and at the same time give away our military secrets
What are they going to achieve by that? Russia will become more ruthless by that time. They are now, but you have to remember, russia is still a superpower. They can do more destruction if they want, they can be more violent if they want. Just imagine, usa start to invade mexico, because mexico start to go on a military agreement with russia-china-india block. At that time, we will of course morally support mexico, but we know, its impossible to beat usa. At that time, mexico shouldn't do anything stupid, that would trigger usa, for example, pearl harbour by japan. Doing something only give them back more serious consequences. Same thing for Ukraine here. Same thing for hamas, hezbollah or houthi there. Because of oct7, they are having this consequences. Who are suffering now? Its civilian. Just because of some policy makers, Ukrainians are suffering. We can say anything, "let ukraine fight back, give russia a lesson" anything. But we won't face the consequences of them. They will. Every bomb will fall on them, not ours. Its better to move on to a peaceful solution rather than make it worse. Russia won't kneel, they can't. If they lose here, they will lose all the influence over the world. And right now, russia is at its peak in 21st century. They won’t be soft.
I don't know what will happen if they strike in Moscow. Russia might nuke the kyiv. And interestingly, usa or the west won't do anything because they won’t try to start a nuclear war against russia china.
Superpower describes a sovereign state or supranational union that holds a dominant position characterized by the ability to exert influence and project power on a global scale