Someone else made the joke that with Kevin Bacon you need to go six steps to find a connection between actors. With Reagan you need to go three steps maximum to get to betrayal.
You're right, it takes time to work a crisis into your favor. My earliest realization that politics was full of shit was when people were claiming that Reagan's election that day got the hostages free.
The biggest reason this could be comparable is that her campaign is just beginning, so it is early poll time for a Harris-Trump race, even though the idea has been tossed around previously.
The point is still valid, and there's certainly other examples of statistical predictions and actual voting results being way off. Only one number matters, and it won't happen if people don't show up and vote, regardless of the barriers put in place (in America!) to prevent people from voting.
Carter would spend almost all of 1980 hemorrhaging support as a result. By July he was at about 32%, but Reagan hadn't really gained any favor, and wouldn't until October.
Reagan was a mistake too. Every Republican from Nixon onward was a mistake. That party should be dead. Like the federalists and the whigs.
The Democrat party is ripe to split in half and be the NEXT two party system. And I'd be pleased as punch if the progressive side were the majority, especially if they might finally change us to ranked choice.
The conservative party – either now as Republicans or pre-Southern Strategy Democrats – have always been terrible for the country. They continue to try and make life better for the rich, terrible for the poor, and maintain / re-establish / expand slavery.
It's never been "both sides", like many claim. It's always been the god-damned conservatives.
The federalists had some ideas which are worth borrowing, as thought leaders I think the party was started by some interesting and forward thinking people
Let me lead with this: Fuck Reagan, all my homies hate Reagan.
Carter catches a lot of grief but not many people can explain why he was a bad president, it always seems to come down to vibes. And, I kinda get it. I don't agree, but I get it. I watched the Carter/Reagan debate and Reagan fucking demolished him, just absolutely ate him alive. Carter showed up to give a lecture, where Reagan was relatable and speaking to the viewer through the screen. Carter would have been nothing but a smoking pair of shoes by the end of one of today's shit ass spectacle debates. It's a shame, too, because I was ready to hear Carter's lectures, I wanted fo hear what this hella smart dude had to say, but then, I'm a policy nerd. It's a shame that Carter's team couldn't stop the bleeding. I think I'd like to see the alternate future where we didn't get two terms of the fucking gipper.
Yeah, honestly, I find Carter to not have as much of a charisma than the ex-Hollywood actor-- Ronald Reagan. People tend to overlook the importance of charisma.
Also, another factor that this post hugely ignores was the failed Iranian hostage rescue crisis in 1980. That tarnished Carter's image as the incumbent president.
You need to understand that after losing in Vietnam, the american psyche wasn't ready for another blow. The Iran Crisis was on the news every night. Carter couldn't escape it.
That was a year before the election. Reagan spent that year deriding Carter for not getting the hostages back from Iran. While Reagan made illegal and secret deals with the Iranians to keep the hostages until after the election.
The iraq war actually made it easier for him to get reelected. Got the entire base in line. Bush demanded they believe Saddam trained AQ as part of their loyalty to the party.