Estonia is pouring money and weapons into Ukraine’s war effort to try to push back the Russians.
Estonia considers itself a front-line state, a Nato member where its border guards stare across the Narva River at the Russian fortress of Ivangorod.
This tiny Baltic state, once a part of the Soviet Union, is convinced that once the fighting stops in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin will turn his attention to the Baltics, looking to bring countries like Estonia back under Moscow’s control.
To help stave off that possibility, Estonia’s government has poured money and weapons into Ukraine’s war effort, donating more than 1% of its GDP to Kyiv.
I would think Russia's next target will be Georgia. The invasion there is only frozen for the moment, but with the pro-Russian government there it only needs some more Russian style laws like those anti-LGBTQ or foreign-agents one, plus massive protests in the young city population and Russia will "come to help the government".
Estonia considers itself a front-line state, a Nato member where its border guards stare across the Narva River at the Russian fortress of Ivangorod.
I don't know why, but the way I read that made it sound like Estonia is Gondor. Which, now that I think about it, seems pretty apt. At least being a NATO member, if/when they call for aid, they should expect an answer.
At least being a NATO member, if/when they call for aid, they should expect an answer.
It's already clear that Hungary and possibly Turkey can't be counted on to help with Russia, and if far right parties win more elections in Europe and if Trump wins in the US (both of which seem probable), it's unlikely they would actually step up against Russia considering that conservatives generally see them as an ally and not a threat. Russia may well test the limits of Art. 5 if Trump wins
Not to be too snide, but we do have a plan B of sorts. It's just Estonia, that's all. Sorry Estonia. Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland are all right there with you.
Poland's army is getting pretty impressive too, and this time they get plenty of prep time and only one direction to worry about. Assuming they can keep influence operations from undermining their defensive posture.
And that’s why Putin really wants Trump to win, because I’m pretty sure that shitstain would decline to respond to an Article 5 invocation, even if he hadn’t already started to withdraw from NATO at that point.
Article 5 is only a can-do, not a must-do. Which is also why NATO partner armies are stationed in those countries. If one of those partner soldiers gets hurt, it should make NATO's decision to intervene easier.
If Ukraine falls, the plan B is securing the land connection between Poland and the Baltics from a potential offensive coming from Belarus, and cutting Kaliningrad from Russia-Belarus. Conversely, Russia's plan is establishing a land connection to Kaliningrad and cutting the Baltics, although now that Finland has joined NATO, it isn't that much of an useful goal for them anymore.
All in all, a direct Russia-NATO war is extremely unlikely, unless there are extreme geopolitical realignments in the EU.
The Suwałki Corridor is even less important strategically after Sweden joined NATO and forces can move through there. Its main importance right now is for reinforcing Kaliningrad, which itself is not very supportive of Mother Russia actions. So in a hypothetical invasion scenario who even knows what would happen in Kaliningrad.