Polls are completely unreliable, especially this far out. They predicted trumps loss the first go around and we endured 4 years of that POS. They predicted red waves the last 2 election cycles and it never manifested.
Its a problem with the techniques they're using to gather data I guess. Whether it's the cold calling or what, I don't know, but it clearly isn't effective to get honest assessments anymore.
That being said it will never not blow my mind that it's even slightly close. Last election millions of Americans sat through 4 years of trump and said yep that worked out great for me. Everyone I talked to who was in that camp had various incorrect reasons but you don't need to be right, you just have to feel like you're right.
I think the reality is that Biden is not and has never been a popular candidate. His age works against him. Kamala is equally unappealing and doesn't help things either. The biggest problem right now is that Biden has come out very strongly pro Israel (which every single president has done including Trump) and he has not done enough to condemn the Israeli genocide. Millenials and Gen z are at the very least anti genocide and largely pro Palestine so that's not helping his case, although they're short sighted if they assume Trump would be the better answer here.
If Trump wins our democracy is over. 'Oh you're overreacting'. Yeah they said that to me before Trumps presidency and I was correct then as I am correct now.
We have to get through 24 and not have a deranged traitorous lunatic take the reigns of the country again. We can discuss the next steps in the post Trump era but we won't get the option to discuss it if Trump somehow wins.
Vote like you value this country. Convince others to vote. Apathy is a vote for Trump. Choosing not to vote for Biden because you're anti Israel is voting for Trump, who is also going to continue right along supporting Israel.
We have to get through 24 and not have a deranged traitorous lunatic take the reigns of the country again. We can discuss the next steps in the post Trump era but we won’t get the option to discuss it if Trump somehow wins.
This has been every election since 2012, and the discussion doesn't happen.
No I don't think that's accurate. If McCain or Romney had won I never had a fear that our democracy would have eroded. I certainly wouldn't have agreed with all of their policy choices but both men I think are old guard politicians and would have largely done the job with an undercurrent of honor that just doesn't exist with trump. I never would have had any fear that if they lost the next election they wouldn't peacefully turn over power.
With trump all of that has changed. The only reason his coup didn't work is because most everyone involved was dense as fuck and couldn't come up with a cohesive strategy to get it done. Give him another chance and 4 years to prepare and he will find success.
Biden is not the candidate I wanted, but he's the candidate we've got, and in our broken political system that's as good as it's going to get. We can talk about 3rd parties and changing the system but none of that is happening before 24.
The polls are right about one thing. Trump definitely could win again. That should be very alarming to any rational American.
Biden has been the most progressive President in probably 40 years and the most effective since probably Clinton. He wouldn't be my first choice, but even if your silly little one-word retort is true that's a big improvement on the past.
Obama also murdered people with drones and caved to Republicans when he had the power to pursue a more progressive agenda. He bailed out businesses instead of people. He did nothing about torturing prisoners of war. Don't give me this Obama progressive bullshit. ACA was a republican plan. Obama was not by any stretch of the imagination a progressive. He was an okay President and a great orator, but his policies were conservative democrat.
Well you're just wrong. Obama was not as progressive as Biden and believe me I was shocked by both. The proof is in the policies.
Oh and being an ally of Israel is universal for both parties. Whoever was in office would've supported them. Obama certainly had some extremely disappointing foreign policy as well.
ACA wasn't progressive though! I'm working so I'm short on time to pull receipts and probably quick-tempered as well so sorry for being a bit of an asshole. But ACA wasn't a progressive policy. We are still paying insurers instead of providers and ACA isn't particularly affordable but I'll grant it is there for folks who have no other option.
Maybe people should wake the fuck up, think rationally and realised that there is one party in this game that at least has a sense of government obligations to the parts of society that need extra help, and for the greater good, and another party that has taken money from the people and funneled it into the hands of billionaires, openly oppressed the majority of the population and ARE OPENLY FUCKING FASCIST.
But the " Dems aren't doing enough"
Fuck me.
This isn't even considering the captured media landscape, the dark money from faceless corporate interests, the nation states and fucked up billionaire macavellian wanna be dickheads that all flows to keeping the Dems down and the fascist machine rolling.
Hes tried to cancel student debt (and for some people he's been successful), he's taken steps to reform federal Marijuana laws, through his support of Ukraine he has effectively crippled one of our biggest enemies without the loss of a single American soldier, the economy under Biden is rebounding post covid with record low levels of unemployment, he's passed pro lgbtq legislation, improved access to care for veterans, put more minorities and women in government positions, including one on the Supreme Court, than any other president in history. The list goes on.
The meme is that Joe Biden is a confused old man. He is old, but he's one of the most effective politicians in our lifetime. I don't agree with all of his policies but don't get sucked into the lies and falsehoods that are spreading across the internet.
Sometimes I think it's better for people to think about what history books will show in 30 years. When the dust settles and we look back at a president's legacy it's often a much different story than when we were living through it. When Nixon was in the white house the county was divided with many people supporting him even as Watergate blew up. But do we remember the position of those people? No. They were wrong. When emotions were taken out of the equation and historians could go back and look at what actually happened we learned just how much of a racist criminal piece of shit Nixon was, how he killed thousands of service men and civilians for political gain. None of this is disputed, it's just the facts of how things played out. Biden and Trump will get the same treatment. I don't think anyone with half a brain has any illusions about what they will say about trump, but if we solely went by Bidens presidency up to now and gave it that treatment he would be seen favorably. That might not be what you would like to hear, but it's the objective truth.
Now you are correct, the dems need to be hammering the shit out of this message and make sure people don't get fooled by the misinformation that gets spread invariably around election time, but to suggest nothings been accomplished and that the dems haven't done anything is categorically false.
"We're looking into it" isn't an accomplishment. But I'm sure you can whip this into "He's the most pro-cannabis president in the past 730 years!" or whatever nonsense puffery centrists use when they want progressives to accept changing nothing as progress.
If you want your other claims to have credibility, don't mix them with bullshit.
I disagree completely. I think there's a need to do it the right way and so far that is all tracking along. My belief is that he's going to make a point of federally decriminalizing right before the election. Yes it hasn't happened yet, but we are closer than we have ever been and hes the most pro decriminalization president we have ever had. Full stop.
I disagree completely. I think there’s a need to do it the right way and so far that is all tracking along. My belief is that he’s going to make a point of federally decriminalizing right before the election.
Until it happens, it's not an accomplishment.
hes the most pro decriminalization president we have ever had. Full stop.
Whaddaya know. You said the thing. I don't give credit for pretending to try.
And that's one of the main reasons why Biden is the candidate AND why most people who weren't alive the last time the US had a president to the left of Reagan don't trust the DNC much.
Don't be tiresome, you know there's no "we" in the Democratic party. They think they're playing "good cop, bad cop" with the right, and they're not going to realize it's not an act until it's too late.
I reckon the techniques they use favor older people. For example, I can see a boomer answering a cold call no problem, but I couldn’t say the same for a younger generation.
One problem is cost. It takes millions of dollars to do a truly scientific poll these days. Robocalls don't work anymore due to cell phone penetration. The phonebook is dead, and along with it any credible listings of numbers that represent real people. Plus very low response rates and spam filters blocking much of polling calls even then. You pretty much have to go door-to-door in order to get a truly good poll, which is something few organizations can do.
As a result, most cheaply done polls use non-random samples and add a giant "fudge factor" to make it look random. It's not clear how there models really work and there's no way to audit them.
A part of the problem with the 'get through 24' thought line is that Trump and the circus surrounding him has morphed into something that's functionally it's own entity with a R painted on it for convenience. That whole branch of the political tree has become some sort of monstrosity that the few remaining normal-ish conservatives fear to cross lest they become a target just like everyone else who's an 'other'.