You're viewing a single thread.
That's funny and all but if it happened 1 in 12 the chances that it's very common are orders of magnitudes higher than it being super rare DUH
It's a very non-representative, very small sample. The error bars in the statistical inference to the whole population includes both "very common" and "one-in-a-million".
What do the bar represent in 3d space?
What do they represent in 3d space?!? (aggressiveduck.jpg)
Gaussian distributions.
Not every error bar represents a Gaussian, if for no other reason that most error bars aren't symmetric.
The error bars for small sample size relative to population size are Gaussian.
Error due to a non-representative sample can have a variety of shapes, but their distribution might also be unknown. We do frequently, almost implicitly, assume unknown distributions to be Gaussian, but we should recognize that's not necessarily a true fact about the universe.
Assuming a representative sample, the best point estimate is 1/12 (8.33%), and the 95% confidence interval is 0.21% to 39%.
Longer explanation here: https://lemmy.zip/comment/19753854
Assuming a representative sample
That's the thing I doubt a team of highly skilled astronauts will be representative of the human population
I think if anything they would be biased towards having fewer allergies than normal people. Which suggests that 0.21% (1 in 500) is a reasonable bound for how rare a moon dust allergy could be.
Never really verified it but I think allergies are more common in developed countries. If that's true, that the data is skewed in the opposite direction
Probably more commonly identified