We went from LEARN TO CODE to NO ONE LEARN TO CODE GET A CONSTRUCTION JOB in about a 3 year span.
I found this thought funny. A few years ago everyone was all learn to code so you don't lose your job! Now there wont be any programming jobs in 10 years. But we will need a lot of manual labor still.
LLMs can’t code worth a shit yet. But techbros are determined to change that. The sad reality is that code is just a form of language, and LLMs are good at learning languages. They can’t code worth shit right now, but the progress likely will improve them.
We’ll still need experienced debuggers who can actually code. But in a decade, the broad strokes will likely be done by LLMs, which will vastly shrink the demand for experienced coders.
The vast majority of coding isn’t making something new, it’s using existing patterns and tools and arranging them to fit a specific use case.
I would argue that arranging something to fit a specific use case is making something new.
Ask any designer how difficult it is to get a spec sheet from a client and meet their expectations. We're expecting LLMs to suddenly solve this problem.
Llms may not be able to create a new framework or design pattern
Until they can do this, there is little threat to designers. There will be less grunt work, of course.
Open source, libraries, frameworks and language development is how this is tackled.
Making software is implementing business logic. It's the specific nature of whatever problem you are solving which means you can't use some existing off-the-shelf product.
There are dozens (if not hundreds) of no-code/low-code app builders out there. Things like n8n or ndoe-red.
They get very difficult to maintain at scale.
Right now they are. Who knows what tomorrow will bring.
Compared to just 20 years ago we're living in the future. You may not have noticed the progress because you'd expect the future to includes hoverboards.
Right now they are. Who knows what tomorrow will bring?
We do. Experienced programmers who have been promised we're about to be obsolete several times, now. For many of us, this isn't our first rodeo.
As an expert in computers, there's two things I can guarantee about the future of computers:
Computers will just keep getting smarter.
After decades of getting smarter, computers remain deeply stupid in ways that non-experts cannot imagine. However dumb you think your computer might be, I promise it's somehow significantly dumber than that.
As far as I'm concerned, my PM represents the customer(s). They spend time with customer feedback, the sales and executive teams to strategize with the company first. I ain't got time for all that bs.
If that's not how you work, it's probably just a smaller org where people have to wear more hats. Nothin' wrong with that.
Learning a language and forming and expressing complex thoughts in an efficient way are three different things.
Learning the syntax of a programming language doesn't make you a programmer.
Being able to solve complex problems with the programming language makes you a programmer.
Being able to solve complex problems with the programming language in an efficient way makes you a good programmer.