Humans Suck at Seeing Into the Future
Humans Suck at Seeing Into the Future
Breathless predictions about nuclear power put today’s AI “revolution” into perspective.
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- Nuclear power began with an experiment in 1945 but was not widely adopted.
- Nuclear power is safer and more efficient than fossil fuels, but has safety and regulatory issues.
- The nuclear revolution didn't happen because of wrong predictions and political obstacles.
- Artificial intelligence is generating hype, but its impact on the real world may be limited.
- Futurism and the randomness of history make it difficult to predict the future, including the development of AI.
- The human ego and sensationalism may prevent us from seeing the real consequences of AI.
So which is it? Little impact or unseen real consequences?
I think that's the point. Any predictions should be taken with a giant heaping of salt
I had a junior software developer write a social media app for Android in three minutes using AutoGPT.
"Seeing the real consequences of AI" is a misnomer, because unlike other predictions, machine language models, neural networks, transformers and other types of software advancements are TOOLS which SAVE ON LABOR.
Humanity is tremendously efficient at implementing new tools and methods which save on labor or costs, and is how we ended up in this Post-Industrial mess that we're in.
They might be bad at predicting the future, but they're sure good at actually doing it.
Sure, but that's not the point of the article. The point is we don't know what will happen, and it very well could be banned, restricted, etc. in some dystopian future by a bunch of idiots who don't understand it.
To bring it back to the author's nuclear analogy, humanity has been tremendously weary and even stupid in its use of this new tool.
Some great tools(ideas) get jammed in the back of the closet just because some idiot says it's always been done this way, and this is the way it always will be.