It's a good week, although I just obviously got banned by @OneRedFox@beehaw.org, the mod in the Socialism community. Seems that different views are not welcome. I don't complain (it's your server, your rules), just wanted to let you know that. I was on Beehaw quite a while and didn't expect something like that.
Happy new year to everyone.
Marking five years since Covid emerged, the WHO says China should share data as "a moral and scientific imperative".
Cross posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/17841591
The World Health Organization has urged China to share data on the origins of the Covid pandemic, five years on from its start in the city of Wuhan.
"This is a moral and scientific imperative," the WHO said in a statement to mark what it called the "milestone" anniversary.
"Without transparency, sharing, and co-operation among countries, the world cannot adequately prevent and prepare for future epidemics and pandemics," it added.
Many scientists think the virus transferred naturally from animals to humans, but some suspicions persist that it escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan.
China has not responded to Monday's WHO statement. In the past it has strongly rejected the lab leak theory.
In September, a team of scientists said it was "beyond reasonable doubt" that the Covid pandemic started with infected animals sold at a market, rather than a laboratory leak.
[...]
[WHO] director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said at the time that at least seven million people had died in the pandemic.
But he added that the true figure was "likely" closer to 20 million deaths - nearly three times the official estimate.
Since then, the WHO has repeatedly warned against complacency about the possible emergence of future Covid-like illnesses.
Dr Ghebreyesus has said the next pandemic "can come at any moment" and has urged the world to be prepared.
[...]
The US Treasury Department notified lawmakers on Monday that a China state-sponsored actor infiltrated Treasury workstations in what officials are describing as a “major incident.”
The US Treasury Department notified lawmakers on Monday that a China state-sponsored actor infiltrated Treasury workstations in what officials are describing as a “major incident.”
[...] ATreasury official said it was informed by a third-party software service provider on December 8 that a threat actor used a stolen key to remotely access certain Treasury workstations and unclassified documents.
“Based on available indicators, the incident has been attributed to a Chinese state-sponsored Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) actor,” Aditi Hardikar, assistant secretary for management at the US Treasury, wrote in the letter.
A Treasury spokesperson said in a statement to CNN that the compromised service has been taken offline and officials are working with law enforcement and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA).
“There is no evidence indicating the threat actor has continued access to Treasury systems or information,” the Treasury spokesperson said.
[...]
Weak-kneed responses to attacks on Baltic cables risk allowing the Russia-China axis to conduct free target practice against NATO critical infrastructure, promoting the two countries’ proficiency, interoperability and lethality. Thanks to this opportunity, Russian crews ...
Weak-kneed responses to attacks on Baltic cables risk allowing the Russia-China axis to conduct free target practice against NATO critical infrastructure, promoting the two countries’ proficiency, interoperability and lethality.
Thanks to this opportunity, Russian crews and their masters ashore will become much better at crippling critical infrastructure connecting NATO states just as Europe is preparing for a defensive war against Moscow’s aggression. And Chinese planners and crews will similarly become more adept at waging this form of hybrid warfare in the Indo-Pacific.
The presence of China-flagged vessels near disruptions to undersea cable infrastructure in Europe in 2024 raises questions about whether Beijing’s involvement was accidental, surveillance-related or part of a coordinated effort. That Beijing calls itself Moscow’s ‘no-limits’ partner suggest its involvement in the suspected sabotage was plausible, if not probable. Even if China wasn’t involved, it will be eager and able to learn from Russia’s experience.
Herman&Chomsky provide some good insights, but there are major shortcomings and points where they are outright false. Among others, it is often cited by anti-democratic propagandists. China uses this book, it's among the very view Western books that are not censored in China, there is even a Chinese translation. They use Chomsky&Herman to criticize democracy and human rights (China's criticism of capitalism is sort of a pretext).
Tankies and other communities use it as some sort of ultimate truth. This is rubbish.
Chomsky is even conveying pro-Russian, anti-Ukrainian viewpoints in the meantime (here is an older article, I am sure you know Chomsky's hypotheses).
Don't get me wrong, but sometimes I am wondering how many of those citing the book have really read it.
As someone already wrote in another thread, the moderation in this community seems to follow personal preferences rather than justifyable rules.
Global coal demand may rise 1% to a record 877 crore tonnes in 2024, driven by energy needs in China and India, says IEA. Latest.
Cross posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/17832023
The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global coal demand is expected to reach unprecedented levels in 2024. In its latest report, "Coal 2024: Analysis and Forecast for 2024," the agency predicts coal consumption will climb to 877 crore tonnes, marking a new record.
The report notes that while global coal demand increased by 1% in 2023, the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years. In 2021, coal demand surged by 7.7% following the COVID-19 recovery, while growth rates moderated to 4.7% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023.
[...]
China, the world's largest coal consumer, will significantly drive global demand. The IEA estimates China's coal consumption will grow by 1% in 2024, reaching 490 crore tonnes. India, the second-largest consumer, is expected to see a 5% increase, bringing its consumption to 130 crore metric tonnes—a level previously achieved only by China.
Conversely, coal demand in developed regions like the European Union and the United States continues to decline. The European Union’s demand is projected to drop by 12% in 2024, while the US is expected to see a 5% decline. However, these decreases are less steep compared to the significant drops in 2023.
[...]
That's perfectly alright. As I asked above in this threat, I don't understand why this has been just deleted. But, again, it's on you. That's your server. No two people agree on everything.
Global coal demand may rise 1% to a record 877 crore tonnes in 2024, driven by energy needs in China and India, says IEA. Latest.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global coal demand is expected to reach unprecedented levels in 2024. In its latest report, "Coal 2024: Analysis and Forecast for 2024," the agency predicts coal consumption will climb to 877 crore tonnes, marking a new record.
The report notes that while global coal demand increased by 1% in 2023, the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years. In 2021, coal demand surged by 7.7% following the COVID-19 recovery, while growth rates moderated to 4.7% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023.
[...]
China, the world's largest coal consumer, will significantly drive global demand. The IEA estimates China's coal consumption will grow by 1% in 2024, reaching 490 crore tonnes. India, the second-largest consumer, is expected to see a 5% increase, bringing its consumption to 130 crore metric tonnes—a level previously achieved only by China.
Conversely, coal demand in developed regions like the European Union and the United States continues to decline. The European Union’s demand is projected to drop by 12% in 2024, while the US is expected to see a 5% decline. However, these decreases are less steep compared to the significant drops in 2023.
[...]
As I said, I fully support that this is an issue, and it's a good article. I wouldn't have expected to be in this commmunity. When I see a comm called 'Socialism' I wouldn't expext an analysis on the Haji in Saudi Arabia. But it's a big problem for all of us, and especially for countries like SA where it's already been hot even before the climate change, of course.
Addition: Global coal demand is on the rise as you might have read, just posted something. Why has that been deleted?
Let me say that this is on you and Beehaw, I just think it is an article about the Haji. The solution here is to just provide enough cooling methods I would say. I feel putting this in a wider 'capitalist and climate' frame is a bit overdone.
Climate change is our all issue, and it's caused by self-defined capitalist and socialist countries alike. Similar things happen in Brazil's Amazon region, in Asia, almost across China's BRI, and across the globe. It's not unique to socialism.
But, again, it's on you and I don't want to make that a big issue. Sometimes it's better to agree to disagree :-)
Yeah, under the current system, insurers apoear to have almost no choice other than leaving the market, or raising the premiums to unaffordable levels as risks are becoming too high.
Saudi authorities have installed air-conditioned shelters and other cooling methods. But these are only available to pilgrims with official permits. Most of those who died did not have permits, meaning they could not access cool relief.
This is absolutely devastating, there's absolutely no doubt. When reading the article, though, I didn't understand why this is an article in this particular community. Maybe Saudi Arabia should provide more cooling methods, or not let too many people in?
Although climate change is, of course, caused by Western-style capitalism, it is by far not the only reason. China, a socialist country, is the world's largest coal producer and importer, and coal likely remains the bedrock of China's energy system for at least another decade.
I feel this is a well-researched article, but maybe the wrong community?
Could a 'Federal Homeowners Insurance Co' be (part of) a solution? The FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Co) supplies insurance to bank deposits of up to USD 250k. Would a similar concept work here, too?
Shein, a Chinese retailer, has rapidly risen to compete with the likes of H&M and Zara — and even Amazon. But now France is leading the West''s crackdown on the questionable practices of so-called "fast fashion."
An investigation provides a deep look inside the company's working and sourcing practices.
[...]
There is not a minute to spare on the fourth floor of the sewing workshops building [...] “Here, 20,000 items are produced per day. We handle everything, from the purchase of fabrics to the packaging of the items, including cutting. SHEIN wants us to go fast and gives us fines if we don't meet deadlines,” a foreman says. The conversation ends there. SHEIN prohibits any visits and comments from its official suppliers, explains the director.
SHEIN stays very evasive about its supply chain. The retailer relies heavily on small workshops, unlike other international brands who order large volumes from large factories. SHEIN tells Les Échos it works with 6,000 suppliers but does not publish their names and contact details. That is enough to fuel questions about its production methods.
The lunch break is an opportunity to talk to several workers in the canteen or the eateries adjoining the workshop buildings.
[...]
74 hours a week
They all tell us about their extended working hours: “I work from 8 a.m. until noon, then from 1:30 p.m. until 5:30 p.m. and, after dinner, from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m.,” a seamstress says. The evening is free once a week, either on Saturday or on Sunday. That's a total of 74 hours of work per week.
Under Chinese Labor Law, weekly working hours are limited to a maximum of 44 hours, with 36 additional hours allowed per month. In reality, the textile industry often goes beyond that. What about holidays at SHEIN? One Sunday per month. "If I need more, I can ask my boss but it means I won't earn anything," explains a worker, specifying that she has no contract or social benefits.
[...]
All the workers here are migrants coming from other Chinese provinces [than Guangzhou, where the Shein factory is located] who came to find a job or a better salary. “I earn a little more than in Jiangxi [an adjoining province, north of Guangzhou],” says this 50-year-old worker. Like all the employees [...], she is paid by the piece, which encourages her to increase her hours to produce more.
[...]
The presence of a very young girl among the three workers soon catches the eye. “I sort out the clothes according to their size then I put labels on them,” she explains. “I arrive around 9 a.m. and leave around 10 p.m. depending on overtime.” She says she earns 0.30 yuan per piece (5 cents) and has worked here since she left middle school last summer. How old is she? “My daughter is 16 and just comes to give me a hand,” her mother, who packs blouses on the side, quickly intervenes to end the discussion.
[...]
On its U.S. website, the retailer briefly addressed modern slavery in a short statement and published a code of conduct reminding suppliers of their obligation to comply with all applicable laws, including child labor laws. But it is not uncommon in the textile industry for suppliers to subcontract part of the orders to small workshops with no direct link to the retailer, which makes controls difficult.
It takes a simple visit to the residential area of Nancun, where many small workshops are located, to confirm this. Across an alley, our gaze meets hundreds of bags stamped with the SHEIN logo. The manager, busy ironing long black dresses, says the order comes from “a friend”.
[...]
"It is impossible for SHEIN to control all the workshops and its code of conduct mainly aims at responding to the concerns of foreign media and consumers," explains Huang Yan, professor at the University of Technology of South China, in Guangzhou [where the Shein factory is located]. More generally, [...] the use of small workshops do not make the protection of workers any easier.
[...]
Putin started this war, the aggressor is Russia, they could easily end the war by just leaving Ukraine.
No profit in peace, champ
This seems indeed be the main theme of Putin and 'war economist' Andrei Belousov, who has pushed for aggressive state spending to boost arms production even before he was appointed Russia's 'defense minister.'
Russia's military spending might officially reach ~7 percent of GDP in 2024, many economist say it may even be higher.
In 2025, Russia plans to spend 40 oercent of its state budget for the military, up from 30 percent in 2024.
As Volodymyr Zelenskyy prepares for possible negotiations, friends and neighbours should be gearing up for industrial warfare
This is an opinionated piece by Peter Pomerantsev, senior fellow at SNF Agora Institute, Johns Hopkins University.--
It’s also in Ukraine that one realises that “freedom” and “sovereignty” exist in a collaborative relationship with others. Ukraine is now defending its neighbours’ freedom from an advancing Russia. Kyiv’s resistance is benefiting Taiwan’s freedom, too.
[...]
As Ukraine prepares for possible negotiations, its leadership is asking what “guarantees” its partners can give. If “international order”, “Europe” and even “Nato” are flaky concepts, how can guarantees be secured into something real? Ukrainians remember the Budapest memorandum of 1994, when Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in return for promises from Russia, the US and Britain to respect its borders. Everyone fears a repeat of those empty words. Even if Russia agrees to a ceasefire next year, what’s to stop it rearming and attacking again?
[...]
The idea that freedoms and military production are so interdependent may jar with the pacifist instincts of some progressives. But here Ukraine can offer a pointed lesson. Ever since she won the Nobel peace prize, the Ukrainian human rights lawyer Oleksanda Matviichuk has been gracefully explaining to the world that even though, indeed because, she is a human rights activist, she also advocates for Ukraine’s right to self-defence and to return fire inside Russia at the military bases that are being used to murder Ukrainian civilians. “International law” is also an empty term if it can’t be defended literally.
There’s little indication that distressed developers are finding it easier to repay debt. Read more at straitstimes.com.
Cross posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/17809174
One of China’s leading developers is now on the authorities’ radar for default risk. A major Hong Kong builder is asking lenders to extend loans. Another industry peer is selling an iconic but largely empty mall in Beijing.
As China’s property debt crisis enters its fifth year, there is little indication that distressed developers are finding it easier to repay debt as a slump in home sales continues. Their dollar bonds are still trading at deeply distressed levels, their debt issuance has nearly dried up, and the sector is a notable laggard in stock markets.
Alarm bells went off again in recent weeks, when the banking regulator told top insurers to report their financial exposure to China Vanke to assess how much support the country’s fourth-largest developer by sales needs to avoid default.
[...]
"While recent government policies have helped to arrest the speed of decline, it could take another one or two years for the sector to bottom,” said senior credit analyst Leonard Law at Lucror Analytics.
“Against this backdrop, we can’t rule out the possibility of some more defaults next year, albeit the overall default rate should be much lower than before.”
[...]
The [Chinese government's] rescue measures adopted so far have focused on preventing a collapse in property prices, protecting owners of unfinished apartments and using state funds to help absorb excess supply.
At the same time, policymakers chose to look on as former industry behemoths China Evergrande Group and Country Garden Holdings became defaulters.
This is why the banking regulator’s queries over insurance firms’ exposure to Vanke’s bonds and private debt have drawn much attention. The insurers conducted similar checks in March as fears grew over the builder’s repayment risks.
Separately, Vanke executives have visited several insurers in the past few weeks, urging them not to exercise put options on some private debt that will soon become open to them.
“If there is no turnaround in property sales, asset disposals remain slow in a weak property market, and financial institutions become more cautious and require additional collateral, we believe Vanke could see a liquidity shortage sooner than expected,” Jefferies Financial Group analysts, including Ms Shujin Chen, wrote in a note.
[...]
Vanke’s dollar bond due May 2025 dropped about 10 US cents in the past week to around 80 US cents on the dollar, the biggest weekly decline in more than a year. Its 2027 note also slumped to 49 US cents, signalling investor doubts about full redemption.
Vanke’s woes come at a time when capital markets continue to show weak investor confidence in the sector: mainland Chinese and Hong Kong developers have issued US$67.3 billion (S$91.3 billion) of bonds in 2024, putting the market on track for its smallest annual issuance in at least in a decade.
[...]
In another worrying development, distressed Hong Kong builder New World Development is asking banks to postpone the due dates of some bilateral loans, a move that deepens concerns over its ability to service one of the heaviest debt loads of its kind.
Controlled by the family empire of tycoon Henry Cheng, the developer had total liabilities of HK$220 billion (S$38.4 billion) at the end of June and recorded its first annual loss in two decades.
[...]
"Hong Kong developers are facing a double-whammy in the current down cycle,” said Mr Daniel Fan, credit analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.
“China’s property market, where many of them are involved, shows no sign of a strong recovery, while Hong Kong’s market correction is still ongoing.”
Mississippi River towns pilot new insurance model to help with disaster response
[...]
While conventional indemnity insurance requires insured owners to prove specific losses by amassing evidence and presenting pre-storm documentation, parametric insurance pays out quickly after agreed-upon “triggers” – such as wind speeds or river heights – reach a certain level.
For the Mississippi River Cities and Towns Initiative (MRCTI) pilot, [insurance company] Munich Re has suggested using watershed data from the U.S. Geological Survey to determine the best gauges along the river to measure flood depth. Once the river flooding reaches a certain depth, the payout would be triggered.
[...]
Two congressional reports make clear that "the model of insurance as it stands right now isn't working."
The report is very interesting to read (link opens pdf)
What is clear is that costly natural disasters are becoming more frequent, with the average time between billion-dollar events dropping from four months in 1980 to approximately three weeks today. As those risks grow, some insurers are pulling out of states entirely. For example, State Farm and Allstate have left California, and dozens of smaller companies have collapsed or fled Florida and Louisiana.
When that happens, homeowners must turn to government-backed insurers of last resort, which are available in just 26 states and typically cost more than private coverage. Enrollment in those state-run plans has skyrocketed, the JEC report notes, and they now cover more than $1 trillion in assets.
The report also says:
> Americans will experience climate risk over the next several decades and beyond much longer than the one-year time frame that insurance policies use to price risk. Insurance policies that are longer than a year can better price the risk that homes face and smooth out the higher costs necessary to account for a changing world. While thirty-year policies that match the length of a conventional mortgage would better align insurance policies with risk to a home, some industry leaders have suggested starting with three-year policies—to begin adapting the business model.
> Countries like New Zealand, France, and Japan use public reinsurance programs to support insurance markets facing climate risk. A public reinsurance program could simplify a complicated insurance sector and transfer risks associated with catastrophes to the Federal government.
> Pairing this with state and local risk reduction measures and insurance market reforms could ensure that the market is still pricing actual climate risk (and not distorting the price signal) but remove the threat of catastrophic risk that is driving insurance premium increases and leading companies to pull out of markets.
Democrats need to take a stand against Electoral College votes for a person disqualified by the Constitution.
This is an opinionated article by legal experts: Evan Davis was editor-in-chief of the Columbia Law Review and David Schulte was editor-in-chief of the Yale Law Journal. Both clerked for Justice Potter Stewart. Davis is a New York lawyer who served as president of the New York City Bar and Schulte is a Chicago investment banker.--
The Constitution provides that an oath-breaking insurrectionist is ineligible to be president. This is the plain wording of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment to the Constitution. “No person shall … hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any state, who, having previously taken an oath … to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.” This disability can be removed by a two-thirds vote in each House.
Disqualification is based on insurrection against the Constitution and not the government. The evidence of Donald Trump’s engaging in such insurrection is overwhelming. The matter has been decided in three separate forums, two of which were fully contested with the active participation of Trump’s counsel.
[...]
The unlikelihood of congressional Republicans doing anything that might elect Harris as president is obvious. But Democrats need to take a stand against Electoral College votes for a person disqualified by the Constitution from holding office unless and until this disability is removed. No less is required by their oath to support and defend the Constitution.
[...]
[Edit typo.]
Today, December 29, the Putin-sponsored government of Georgia will attempt to install the illegitimate president, which the people did not elect. Live blog
Read his research, it'll be illuminating.
The killings have led to questions about what is driving people to murder strangers en masse.
"The Chinese people are so miserable," read a social media post in the wake of yet another mass killing in the country earlier this year. The same user also warned: "There will only be more and more copycat attacks."
"This tragedy reflects the darkness within society," wrote another.
Such bleak assessments, following a spate of deadly incidents in China during 2024, have led to questions about what is driving people to murder strangers en masse to "take revenge on society".
Attacks like this are still rare given China's huge population, and are not new, says David Schak, associate professor at Griffith University in Australia. But they seem to come in waves, often as copycat attempts at garnering attention.
[...]
From 2019 to 2023, police recorded three to five cases each year, where perpetrators attacked pedestrians or strangers.
In 2024, that number jumped to 19.
[...]
In 2019, three people were killed and 28 injured in such incidents; in 2023, 16 dead and 40 injured and in 2024, 63 people killed and 166 injured. November was especially bloody.
On the 11th of that month, a 62-year-old man ploughed a car into people exercising outside a stadium in the city of Zhuhai, killing at least 35. Police said that the driver had been unhappy with his divorce settlement.
[...]
Days later, in Changde city, a man drove into a crowd of children and parents outside a primary school, injuring 30 of them. The authorities said he was angry over financial losses and family problems.
That same week, a 21-year-old who couldn't graduate after failing his exams, went on a stabbing rampage on his campus in Wuxi city, killing eight and injuring 17.
[...]
China's slowing economy
A major source of pressure in China right now is the sluggish economy. It is no secret that the country has been struggling with high youth unemployment, massive debt and a real estate crisis which has consumed the life savings of many families, sometimes with nothing to show for it.
Studies appear to point to a significant change in attitudes, with a measurable increase in pessimism among Chinese people about their personal prospects. [While in the past] inequality in society could often be attributed to a lack of effort or ability, [...] people were now blaming an "unfair economic system".
[...]
A lack of options
In countries with a healthy media, if you felt you had been fired from your job unfairly or that your home had been demolished by corrupt builders backed by local officials, you might turn to journalists for your story to be heard. But that is rarely an option in China, where the press is controlled by the Communist Party and unlikely to run stories which reflect badly on any level of the government.
[...]
Then there are the courts – also run by and for the party – which are slow and inefficient. Much was made on social media here of the Zhuhai attacker's alleged motive: that he did not achieve what he believed was a fair divorce settlement in court.
There's a brief documentary on the Shadow Fleet Fueling Russia’s War (24 min)
Invidious link Original YT link
An armada of aging oil tankers is helping to keep Russian oil flowing. Hundreds of vessels are part of a “shadow fleet” that’s allowed the Kremlin to dodge Western sanctions over its war on Ukraine. Bloomberg set out to uncover the traders, intermediaries and investors that make up this network, and how they’re getting rich in the process.
Addition:
Finnish PM calls for tougher measures against Russia’s shadow fleet
Finland's PM Petteri Orpo (NCP) has called for firmer measures to combat the risks associated with the so-called shadow fleet of Russia, [saying he] had discussions about the issue with his counterparts from Denmark, Estonia, Norway, Poland, Sweden and the European Commission.
[Finnish] President Alexander Stubb, meanwhile, has been in contact with Nato.
In Georgia's recent parliamentary elections, the decisive factor in the ruling Georgian Dream party’s victory was the use of “carousels”: a method of vote rigging in which voters cast their ballots at more than one polling station. In this case, those involved were predominantly male, allowing the f...
In Georgia's recent parliamentary elections, the decisive factor in the ruling Georgian Dream party’s victory was the use of “carousels”: a method of vote rigging in which voters cast their ballots at more than one polling station.
In this case, those involved were predominantly male, allowing the fraud to be detected through a gender-based study of data that the Georgian Central Election Commission (CEC) inadvertently provided to independent observers.
Unlike in Russia, outright ballot stuffing is impossible in Georgia, so the orchestrators of carousel voting had to obtain IDs or other identification numbers from real voters who had been paid not to turn up at the polls. Election analyst Roman Udot estimates that a fair vote would have resulted in the ruling party losing its majority in parliament. Anyone interested in checking The Insider’s work can download the data and verify the accuracy of the calculation using this interactive tool.
[...]
Applying the methodology of renowned analyst Sergey Shpilkin to a pair of variables, The Insider was able to calculate the number of anomalous votes: approximately 300,000 in support of the Georgian Dream. The mathematical explanation for the anomaly is supported by eyewitness accounts of “carousel voting” by predominantly male groups.
Carousel organizers obtained genuine IDs — or at least their numbers — from real voters who had guaranteed they would not go to the polls. Carousel voters then used them to cast multiple ballots. The turnout figures showed no anomalies, as bribed ID holders did not come to the polling stations.
[...]
The main evidence of vote rigging is found in the reported electorate’s gender imbalance, which skews decidedly male. This is a statistical anomaly. In the absence of electoral fraud, the average turnout among men and among women would be roughly the same.
[...]
The CEC's gender data immediately raised suspicions. Initially, the CEC reported that 961,751 women and 1,098,661 men had cast ballots — an incredible figure for a nation where women outnumber men by 200,000. In response to the reasonable surprise of local observers, the CEC, in a frantic attempt to cover up the scandal, hid the original data. However, the government body inadvertently issued a document with detailed data for each polling station. The second report attempted to mask the initial anomaly by adding 91,911 female voters and hiding 88,975 male voters, but analysts were not fooled.
[...]
Such a ratio of male to female voters is inexplicable. If male and female voters showed the same level of electoral activity at each station (the same number of ballots cast per 100 registered voters of each gender), a total of 913,584 male voters would have voted nationwide, instead of the recorded 1,006,170. In short, the CEC’s revised data still shows an anomalous surplus of 92,586 male votes.
[...]
The second most “hyperactive” male region of Georgia, Gori, [...] showed a surplus of approximately 5,000 men. On Nov. 25, the Mtavari Arkhi TV channel broadcast the confession of a man called Gocha Chalauri, who shared how he and his associates repeatedly voted for Georgian Dream in the Oct. 26 elections:
> "There were four of us in my car, all men, driving as part of a group of five vehicles. We traveled through Gori, from one village to another, and voted for Georgian Dream about 30 times each. In total, 120 or 130 cars like ours were driving around [the Gori region].”
Electoral fraud is a crime in Georgia, so Chalauri's words should be taken seriously.
[...]
According to Georgian journalists, voters who “rented out” their IDs or personal data promised not to show up at the polls for the recent election. Eyewitness accounts and testimonies from those who took part in the fraud, captured on camera by Pirveli, suggest that this [fraud] scheme was orchestrated by heads of local administrations and members of the Georgian Dream party.
[...]
Each appearance of a “carousel” participant adds one vote for the Georgian Dream and likely subtracts one from the opposition while leaving voter turnout unchanged. As such, it renders fraud detection through traditional methods nearly impossible.
[...]
Subtracting these 300,000 “carousel” votes both from Georgian Dream’s results and from the overall turnout would lower the party’s share from 54% to 46%, reducing their parliamentary seats from 89 to 77 — to a tipping point of a majority in the 150-seat parliament.
However, if there had been no “passport rentals,” and if the citizens who were paid to stay home had shown up to vote for the opposition, genuine voters would have contributed to the turnout — and thus to the total denominator. In that case, the ruling party’s percentage would have dropped even further, to 39%. In this scenario, Georgian Dream would have secured only 67 seats in parliament — and ceased to be the ruling party.
In reality, not all of those voters would have necessarily supported the opposition, but calculations based on official Central Election Commission data show that even a slight influx of average voters would have inevitably tipped the scales.
A top White House official says a ninth U.S. telecoms firm has been confirmed to have been hacked as part of a sprawling Chinese espionage campaign that gave officials in Beijing access to private texts and phone conversations of an unknown number of Americans.
A ninth U.S. telecoms firm has been confirmed to have been hacked as part of a sprawling Chinese espionage campaign that gave officials in Beijing access to private texts and phone conversations of an unknown number of Americans, a top White House official said Friday.
Biden administration officials said this month that at least eight telecommunications companies, as well as dozens of nations, had been affected by the Chinese hacking blitz known as Salt Typhoon.
But deputy national security adviser Anne Neuberger told reporters Friday that a ninth victim had been identified after the administration released guidance to companies about how to hunt for Chinese culprits in their networks.
...]
The hackers compromised the networks of telecommunications companies to obtain customer call records and gain access to the private communications of what officials have said is a a limited number of individuals. Though the FBI has not publicly identified any of the victims, officials believe senior U.S. government officials and prominent political figures are among those whose whose communications were accessed.
<em>Eagle S</em>, the Russia-linked tanker suspected of damaging an underwater electricity cable on Christmas Day, was kitted out with special transmitting and receiving devices that were used to monitor naval activity, according to a source with direct involvement in the ship, which has since been ...
Listening equipment was placed on Eagle S and related tanker Swiftsea Rider to monitor Nato naval and aircraft activities.
Russia-linkex dark fleet* tanker Eagle S (IMO: 9329760), seized by Finland on December 25 for damaging an undersea cable, had transmitting and receiving devices installed that effectively allowed it to become a “spy ship” for Russia, Lloyd’s List has learnt.
The hi-tech equipment on board was abnormal for a merchant ship and consumed more power from the ship’s generator, leading to repeated blackouts, a source familiar with the vessel who provided commercial maritime services to it as recently as seven months ago.
[...]
As well as Eagle S, another related tanker from the same ownership cluster, UK-sanctioned Swiftsea Rider (IMO: 9318539), also had similar equipment installed, Lloyd’s List was told.
Cook Islands-flagged Eagle S and Honduras-flagged Swiftsea Rider are two of 26 elderly Russia-linked tankers with opaque ownership structures connected to three related shipmanagers, including two sanctioned by the UK government 12 months ago for “propping up Putin’s war machine”.
[...]
Eagle S was boarded by Finnish forces investigating sabotage of the Estlink 2 undersea cable that disrupted the supply of electricity to Estonia from Finland.
The tanker slowed and dragged its anchor around the cable around midday, December 25, Finland’s police said. Another three cables were also damaged.
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The equipment was kept on the bridge or in the “monkey island”, they said. The monkey island is the top-most place on the ship.
The transmitting and receiving devices were used to record all radio frequencies, and upon reaching Russia were offloaded for analysis.
“They were monitoring all Nato naval ships and aircraft,” Lloyd’s List was told.
“They had all details on them. They were just matching their frequencies.
“Russians, Turkish, Indian radio officers were operating it.”
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A vessel carrying a sanctioned shipment of Russian liquefied natural gas appears to be offloading the fuel into storage in the nation’s far east, having failed to find a buyer willing to circumvent US restrictions despite a four-month, across-the-world journey.
A vessel carrying a sanctioned shipment of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) appears to be off-loading the fuel into storage in Russia’s far east, having failed to find a buyer willing to circumvent US restrictions despite a four-month, across-the-world journey.
[Edit title for clarity.]
International airlines cancel flights to Russia after the passenger plane was shot down, according to media reports.
- Azerbaijan Airlines suspends flights to 7 Russian cities for security reasons
- Kazakhstan's Qazaq Air suspends flights to Yekaterinburg
- Israeli airline El Al cancels all flights from Tel_Aviv to Moscow
Addition:
Rasim Musabayov, a member of the Azerbaijani parliament's international relations committee, in an interview with Turan news agency:
"The plane was shot down on the territory of Russia, in the skies of Grozny. It is impossible to deny this. Those who did it must be held criminally responsible and compensation must be paid. If this does not happen, then, of course, relations will move to another level."
A minister says all the survivors "heard blast sounds" over Grozny before the plane was diverted to Kazakhstan.
Azerbaijan's transport minister has said the Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed on 25 December was subjected to "external interference" and damaged inside and out, as it tried to land in Russia's southern republic of Chechnya.
"All [the survivors] without exception stated they heard three blast sounds when the aircraft was above Grozny," said Rashad Nabiyev.
The plane is thought to have come under fire from Russian air defence systems before being diverted across the Caspian Sea to Kazakhstan, where it crashed with the loss of 38 lives.
The Kremlin has refused to comment, but the head of Russia's civil aviation agency said the situation in Grozny was "very complicated" at the time and a closed-skies protocol had been put in place.
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Azerbajian Airlines said on Friday that a preliminary inquiry had blamed both "physical and technical external interference", without going into details.
However, aviation experts and others in Azerbaijan believe the plane's GPS systems were affected by electronic jamming and it was then damaged by shrapnel from Russian air-defence missile blasts.
The transport minister said investigators would now examine "what kind of weapon, or rather what kind of rocket was used."
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David Kotz dissects the lessons from the Soviet model, explains why capitalism cannot be reformed and makes a case for democratic socialism.
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In this interview, radical economist David Kotz dissects the lessons drawn from the experience of the Soviet model, explains why reforming capitalism cannot solve the problems built into the capitalist system, and makes a case for democratic socialism as the only sustainable alternative to capitalism
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The Soviet model transformed the lives of the Soviet people for the better in many measurable ways. [...] However, the system had serious economic problems. Many sectors of the economy were inefficient, many consumer goods were of low quality, and many consumer services were simply unavailable. Households often faced shortages of consumer goods.
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Market socialism did not emerge in Russia after the collapse of state socialism, but did emerge in China after 1978 under the post-Mao leadership of Deng Xiaoping. In China, market forces were introduced gradually and with a high degree of state oversight to avoid economic chaos. The record shows that market socialism not only reproduced many of the problems of capitalism but has a tendency to promote a return to capitalism.
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Key features:
(1) Economic allocation decisions are made by all parties affected by the decision. That includes workers, consumers, and the local community.
(2) Differences are settled whenever possible by negotiation and compromise among the relevant parties. If necessary, majority voting can be used.
(3) The mass media are free to criticise the state and its officials.
(4) Individuals are free to criticise the state and its officials.
Research suggests trusted sources of safety advice are not reaching women.
Research from the University of Westminster has identified a gender gap in accessing online safety advice and technology. We found that men are more likely than women to engage with and be informed about security and privacy technologies aimed at keeping people safe online.
A recent report includes the following recommendations for researchers, technology developers and providers, online safety advocates and policymakers to consider, if we are to make digital safety protection more inclusive of women’s needs.
(1) Encourage support in the community Some community NGOs that focus on protecting women and girls, such as End Violence Against Women, have in-depth, first-hand experience of safeguarding women’s online safety. They can offer specialised support to women who have encountered online abuse or cyber attacks. These types of support methods tend to be more effective for women, as our study shows women are about twice as likely as men to seek face-to-face advice.
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(2) Make online advice more accessible Our research suggests that revamping online safety advice so it makes sense to people without technical backgrounds would be helpful. Jargon and technical explanations can put people off, and act as a barrier to the dissemination of sound advice.
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(3) Tailor advice to scenarios faced by women Unfortunately, women disproportionately face many specific online threats such as intimate image abuse, cyberflashing and online harassment. Safety advice in response to such harms is usually provided on the websites of NGOs who support women. However, we need such advice, which is tailored to abuse, to be more widely distributed across the online sources mentioned above.
(4) Develop safe online spaces Safety advice in response to online violence against women and girls is often embedded in the support packages that are given to help victims recover from abuse and trauma, via NGOs. But it is also important to develop new online spaces for communities of women who’ve experienced abuse to share advice and support for digital safety.
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(5) Empower women and girls with the right skills Our research suggests there should be greater focus on ensuring women and girls have the right digital skills to understand and take action regarding their online safety. This means making training courses available – these could be offered in schools and local community centres and libraries, via a national effort.
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(6) Analyse risks before releasing new technology When a new technology or online platform is developed, it’s vital to gather different parties with a stake in the issue to assess whether it could contribute to gender-based online harm. Importantly, this should take place before the technology enters public use, rather than only after it has been misused to harm specific users, including women.
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China’s leader Xi Jinping wants the recent spree of mass killings that shocked the country not to happen again.
Cross posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/17776417
China’s leader Xi Jinping wants the recent spree of mass killings that shocked the country not to happen again. He ordered local governments to prevent future “extreme cases.”
The attacks, where drivers mow down people on foot or knife-wielding assailants stab multiple victims, are not new in China. But the latest surge drew attention.
Local officials were quick to vow to examine all sorts of personal disputes that could trigger aggression, from marital troubles to disagreements over inheritance.
However, the increasing reach into people’s private lives raises concerns at a time when the Chinese state has already tightened its grip over all social and political aspects in the East Asian nation.
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'Revenge on Society Crimes’ - this is how people in China label these attacks.
In November alone, three took place: A man struck people at an elementary school in Hunan province, wounding 30, after suffering investment losses. A student who failed his examination stabbed and killed eight at a vocational school in the city of Yixing. The most victims, 35 people, resulted from a man mowing down a crowd in the southern city of Zhuhai, supposedly upset over his divorce.
“On the surface, it seems like there are individual factors, but we see there’s a common link,” Wu Qiang, a former political science professor, said. “This link is, in my personal opinion, every person has a feeling of injustice. They feel deeply that this society is very unfair and they can’t bear it anymore.”
Since 2015, Chinese police have targeted human rights lawyers and non-profit advocacy groups, jailing many, while keeping tight surveillance on others, effectively destroying the civil society that had been active from the early 2000s to 2010s.
Wu was fired from Tsinghua University after conducting fieldwork during the 2014 Occupy protests in Hong Kong. He says police officers have been regularly stationed outside his home in Beijing since last year.
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A decade ago, media outlets could report an incident as it developed and even share a suspect’s name. Nowadays, it’s rarely possible.
During the 24 hours before the death toll was released in the Zhuhai slaying, state censors were quick to remove any videos of the incident and eyewitness accounts shared online. In the case of the Hunan elementary school attack, authorities shared the number of the wounded only after the court sentencing, nearly a month later.
A tally of violent attacks can be documented in other countries; notably, the U.S. had 38 mass killings so far this year, according to an Associated Press database. But in China, a lack of public data makes it hard to decipher mass killing trends.
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Luqiu believes the government may be enforcing censorship thinking it will prevent copycats from imitating such crimes.
“Things will only become more and more strict,” she predicted. For the Chinese state, “the only method to deal with it is to strengthen control.”
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At least a dozen local government notices, from small towns to big cities, [are now] announcing actions in response.
In eastern Anhui province, a ruling Communist Party leader inspected a middle school, a local police station, and even the warehouse of a chemical factory where he urged the workers to “ferret out any hidden risks.” He said they must “thoroughly and meticulously investigate and resolve conflicts and disputes,” including in families, marriages and neighborhoods.
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However, many expressed worry over how such disputes will be detected.
“I think we’re at the beginning of a vicious cycle,” said Lynette Ong, a professor at the University of Toronto and author of “Outsourcing Repression: Everyday State Power in Contemporary China.” “If you nip the conflict in its bud, you’d imagine the system then would impose a lot of pressure ... on schools, enterprises and factories.”
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The new announcements reminded Ong of China’s strict policies during the COVID-19 pandemic. Neighborhood committees, the lowest rung of government, set up fences and barriers in front of buildings to control entry and exit and broke into homes in extreme cases to disinfect the apartments of people who had caught the virus.
Eventually, people protested en masse.
“If we see non-sensible measures being introduced, you’ll be met by resistance and anger and grievances from the people, and it’s going to feed into this vicious cycle where more extreme measures are going to be brought,” she said.
Russian missile shot down Azerbaijani passenger plane, preliminary findings suggest
A Russian surface-to-air missile was responsible for the crash of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8432, which killed 38 passengers, Azerbaijani media reported Thursday.
Unnamed Azerbaijani officials cited by the Baku-based news agency AnewZ said preliminary findings suggest the missile was fired from a Russian Pantsir-S air defense system as the plane approached Grozny in the North Caucasus republic of Chechnya on Wednesday morning.
GPS jamming, previously reported by Flight Radar 24, caused the aircraft to lose communication with air traffic control while flying over Russian territory, the officials added.
Chechnya and surrounding North Caucasus regions were targeted by drone strikes early Wednesday. AnewZ said that, under such conditions, Russian authorities were required to close airspace to civilian aircraft, but for unknown reasons, this was not done.
Addition: NATO calls for full investigation of Azerbaijan Airlines crash
The cause of the cable damage remains uncertain. Telecom operators say that the incident has not impacted consumers so far.
Disruptions have been detected in a total of four telecommunications cables connecting Finland in the Baltic Sea.
Two of the cables are marine cables operated by Elisa, running between Helsinki and Tallinn, Estonia. One also running from Helsinki to Tallinn is owned by the Chinese-owned CITIC Telecom.
The fourth cable is Cinia's C-Lion1 submarine cable, which connects Helsinki to Germany. Finnish state-owned Cinia has pinpointed the damage to its cable southeast of Porkkala peninsula, just west of Helsinki on the Gulf of Finland.
According to the Finnish Transport and Communications Agency (Traficom), Elisa's cables have been severed, and two other cables have sustained damage.
At a press conference on Thursday, Jarkko Saarimäki, Director-General of Traficom stated that the agency was informed about disruptions to the Elisa and Cinia cables on Wednesday evening. Information about the fourth cable damage emerged on Thursday morning.
According to Saarimäki, telecommunication cables are robust, and their failure typically requires external force.
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This, of course, is a completely fabricated 'comment.'