swlabr @ swlabr @awful.systems

Only Bayes Can Judge Me

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Sponsored by Big Cat Food!

also: the Jen Barber storyline from this IT crowd ep.

Fans of certain shonen anime may recognize this technique as Kodoku – a deadly poison created by putting a bunch of insects in a jar until only one remains

I understood this reference. I know it as Gu poison, which is listed in the wikipedia article you linked!

To minimize the chance that outstanding accuracy resulted from luck rather than skill, we limited eligibility for GJP superforecaster status to those forecasters who participated in at least 50 forecasting questions during a tournament “season.”

When I was a kid I read a vignette of a guy trying to scam people into thinking he was amazing at predicting things. He chose 1024 stockbrokers, picked one stock, and in 512 envelopes he said the stock would be up by the end of the month, and in the other 512 he said it would go down. You can see where this story is going, i.e. he would be left with one person thinking he predicted 10 things in a row correctly and was therefore a superforecaster. This vignette was great at illustrating to child me that predicting things correctly isn't necessarily some display of great intelligence or insight. Unfortunately what I didn't know is that it was setting me up for great disappointment when after that point and forevermore, I would see time and time again that people would fall for this shit so easily.

(For some reason when I try to think of where I read that vignette, vonnegut comes to mind. I doubt it was him.)

Had to stop reading that. My eyes were rolling too much.

That’s a great thread name!

Pretty sure if I asked ChatGPT about essay writing tips or what the best essay ever looked like, it would be more coherent than this rancid melange.

From the comments:

Sounds like the problem is that they’re doing the exact opposite of sanitizing inputs. Have the developers learned nothing from the tragic story of Little Bobby Tables? Instead of rejecting noise they’re doing everything they can to not only recognize its presence, but actually parsing it for commands.

There’s a few things to sneer at here.

• First up, sanitizing inputs? My guy, LLMco aint got time for that. The LLM is hungry and we can’t steal data fast enough, let alone check inputs.
• Ah yes “rejecting noise”, that thing that something with real ultimate cognition would do.

We missed the target of Artificial Intelligence, but we’ve hit the bullseye of Artificial Pareidolia.

Hey, you got this part right!

quirk-washing TREACLES

I can’t wait to be quirk-washed, I’m ready to hang up my pick-me hat and let the new yorker do the work for me

This isn't a vote either way but my pitch for a name is just "Stubsack"

Haha I had that drafted and decided that, in the spirit of the post, I’d write something less good

Despite its title this isn't meant to be the best essay

Oh, thanks for clarifying, that was really hard to figure out. /s

IDK, I think whatever comments the US justice department makes about foreign parties and AI is probably a lot less to do with anything actually pertaining to AI and a lot more to do with US foreign policy aka maintaining the US hegemony

Oh that’s accelerationist drivel if I’ve ever seen it.

Also, this has been bouncing around in my head ever since I’d learned of the term: “e/acc? More like, “Eek! Ack!”

That guy doesn’t look coked up enough for me to trust his financial opinions

The pro-AI comments here remind me of possibly the worst opinion I’ve heard about fossil fuels, which was that we should burn them all now as fast as possible to develop newer technologies to magically solve all the problems generated from burning all the fossil fuels.

More👏power👏for👏vibrators👏

Perhaps not, but maybe "zemblanity", a word I found by searching "serendipity but bad":

Zemblanity is the opposite of serendipity, meaning that it is an unlucky or unwanted, but predictable, event. Although it might be difficult to imagine someone behaving in a manner that could be predicted to cause harm, zemblanity can occur as a result of complex human and organizational factors.

Per ness labs, which the only context I have for it is that it isn't a dictionary.

IQ might be discredited, “g” is valid.

It also has "MBTI is pseudoscience, you should take this online Big 5 quiz instead" energy

In that sense, as with sewer diving, there's a sweet spot of anosmia.

Also: I guess this is a spoiler? ::: spoiler spoiler Upon seeing "Eliza" for the third time, I wondered if it was a reference to "My Fair Lady." Well, it was, once removed. :::