swlabr @ swlabr @awful.systems

Only Bayes Can Judge Me

---

Read more

Posts

36

Comments

1,776

Joined

2 yr. ago

Absolutely no one could have predicted this

Eeps: 90%. I have found something to disagree with:

Everybody loves Puerto Rican music (please get on this, you’re missing out)

I cannot stand reggaeton, so this is a no from me.

note: rust is mentioned 41 times by name in the article

Eepy Status*: about 20% of the way through. This is all I have to share so far:

Bjarne Stroustrup? More like, Blarney Should-Shut-Up.

*yes, short for epistemic status. Don’t like it? Good, mission accomplished.

Edit: Eepyness: 60% of the way through.

This is a masterclass in tea spilling. So many shots fired at fucking everything. I am in awe.

Ah you see, the moment you entered the realm of numbers and estimates, you’ve lost! I activate my trap card: 「Bayesian Reasoning」 to Explain Away those numbers. This lets me draw the「Domain Expert」 card from my deck, which I place in the epistemic status position, which boosts my confidence by 2000 IQ points!

General sneer against the SH: I choose to dismiss it entirely for the same reason that I dismiss solipsism or brain-in-a-vat-ism: it’s a non-starter. Either it’s false and we’ve gotta come up with better ideas for all this shit we’re in, or it’s true and nothing is real, so why bother with philosophical or metaphysical inquiry?

I don’t have the time to deep dive this RN but information dynamics or infodynamics looks to be, let’s say, “alternative science” for the purposes of trying to up the credibility of the simulation hypothesis.

Despite the lack of evidence, this idea is gaining traction in scientific circles as well as in the entertainment industry.

lol

Oh I see. You are mentally a child and require people to spoon feed you information. Let me spell this out for you then. You are mentally a child and require people to spoon feed you information.

it's no one's job but one's own to educate oneself. In your case, you should look for a new educator.

Ok, so, some typical clueless VC mixed up atlas and sisyphus, which absolutely tracks. A VC thinks they are performing the all-important task of holding up the universe, when really they are just pushing a boulder up a hill and letting it fall down again.

VCs really think they are prometheus bringing fire to man, when really they are the eagle eating prometheus’s ever regrowing liver, where prometheus is the working class and the liver is collective wellbeing.

New superpredictor lore dropped on r/mapporn. If you believe in prediction markets and meet someone from Blaine MT or Essec NY, you have to do whatever they say because they are smarter and better at predicting than you.

Ah, gotcha. I guess I'm sensitive to people using the word "misandry" from years spent in bad corners on the internet. I can't speak for others too much but it's an loaded term for me.

I'm sure ol' Petey Tooter has done the calculus to justify why it's worth pouring out a gallon of water every time someone wants to use a worse ctrl+f on his collected works.

Was having trouble understanding this so I translated it through a couple LLMs, it just cost me a few cubic meters of water:

I am very smart. I’d like to point out one thing. Everyone other than me is stupid. Herpa derpa derpa derp.

Oh for sure. It’s probably why I feel so unmoored in today’s culture (jk)

No problem, chud!

ok so couple stub sneers I thought of when reading this:

1. One way to look at EA is as an extension of the middle-manager's syndrome of injecting metrics everywhere to allow them to spin up narratives of growth and improvement to justify their existence. I can't decide who I hate more!
2. following on from 1, it's kind of funny that the EAs, who you could pattern match to a "high school nerd" stereotype, are intellectually beaten out by an analog of the "jock" stereotype of sports fans: fantasy league participants who understand the concept of "intangibles" that EAs apparently cannot grasp.
3. it absolutely tracks that EAs, who see charities that spend money on administrating themselves as inefficient and incompetent, are dumbfounded and bereft of answers when any of their organisations implode

E: linking 1 and 3: together: EAs are self hating middle managers.