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What are some examples of 'common sense' which are nonsense?
  • Adding my own explanation, because I think it clicks better for me (especially when I write it down):

    1. Pick a door. You have a 66% chance of picking a wrong door, and a 33% of picking the right door.
    2. Monty excludes a door with 100% certainty
    3. IF you picked a wrong door, then there's a 100% chance the remaining door is correct (so the contingent probability is p(switch|picked wrong) = 100%), so the total chance of the remaining door being correct is p(switch|picked wrong)* p(picked wrong) = 66%.
    4. IF you picked the right door, then Monty's reveal gives you no new information, because both the other doors were wrong, so p(switch|picked right) = 50%, which means that p(switch|picked right) * p(picked right) = 50% * 33% = 17%.
    5. p(don't switch|picked wrong) * p(picked wrong) = 50% * 66% = 33% (because of the remaining doors including the one you picked, you have no more information)
    6. p(don't switch|picked right) * p(picked right) = 50% * 33% = 17% (because both of the unpicked doors are wrong, Monty didn't give you more information)

    So there's a strong benefit of switching (66% to 33%) if you picked wrong, and even odds of switching if you picked right (17% in both cases).

    Please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong here.

  • Nobody hates working together with leftists more than leftists
  • I think if you abstract it from the vegan discussion and think of it more just as how passionate progressives of any stripe treat each other, it's still pretty real. I mean, it's usually only a small fraction of us, but damn those guys can be loud.

  • Nobody hates working together with leftists more than leftists
  • I think it's basically the same with internet everything? Especially in social media spaces with algorithms that incentivise combative responses..

    I do find that it's less bad on the fediverse (Lemmy, Mastodon) than on the mainstream equivalents. It's still present, but it gets called out and downvoted more, I think. Hopefully it stays that way.

  • Nobody hates working together with leftists more than leftists
  • Dunno why you got downvoted. expressing a personal reaction and asking a question should be fine..

    TVP is pretty good as a mince alternative for bolognese. You can also use it in hearty stews - like a mushroom and TVP stew with mashed potatos.

    Caveat is that cooking with meat is a lot easier, you need to be more thoughtful with spices and stock and salt and getting the balance right when cooking without it. There are vegetarian chicken and beef stocks that are great for stews.

  • Bluesky now has 30 million users.
  • Yep. Already true to a large extent. But it doesn't take a majority of the world to make the fediverse work. We just need enough for it to become broadly attractive to a critical mass of people. It's big enough to self-sustain now, so I think it's just a matter of time until it hits that point.

  • What are some examples of 'common sense' which are nonsense?
  • It's extremely useful, because it's an index to all the known things that might be useful in a given situation. The point is not to assess all of them, the point is to not miss ones you're unfamiliar with that may be important in your situation.

  • Elon Musk Suggests Getting Rid Of All Regulations In Midnight Call
  • ... seem to largely understand that we’re at the theoretical limit of “line goes up”.

    I'm skeptical of this. I think they are disconnected from a few fairly fundamental realities. Do you have any links that might convince me otherwise?

    The rest of it I agree with, but I don't know if that's relevant for their interpretation of market crashes, because I think they see them as internally driven.. I might be wrong here though.

  • Bluesky now has 30 million users.
  • Good take. Bluesky is a good stop-gap.

    I've also been thinking, if Bluesky never federates and enshittifies in a similar way to Twitter (which it will do much faster, just cause it's a different era), then the Bluesky exodus will really have a solid reason to try to understand why decentralisation is so important...

  • Weiqi vs Chess as an analogue for strategy approaches in the real world
  • Whilst victory in chess comes from deploying one’s power better, dominating the centre of the board and exchanging weaker pieces for stronger ones, victory in weiqi comes from cultivating superior potential by connecting one’s stones to make the whole more than the sum of its parts.

    This article is ridiculously up my alley. I'm only an amateur Go player, but I've always found that it's really easy to draw useful life lessons from it, like the importance of failing as a stepping stone to improving, and the balance between practice and theory.

    This is the first time I've seen someone draw some clear underlying philosophy out of it though, and it's really useful for my current work (on risk assessment/management).

  • Elon Musk Suggests Getting Rid Of All Regulations In Midnight Call
  • Because market crashes are not good for anyone in the sector.. Hence I think the regulations brought in via the FSB in response to the GFC were broadly accepted (though probably with varying degrees of willingness).

  • TikTok's algorithm exhibited pro-Republican bias during 2024 presidential race, study finds
  • The intent on e.g. YouTube is to optimise views. Radicalisation is an emergent outcome, as a result of more combatitive, controversial, and flashy content being more captivating in the medium term. This is documented to some extent in Johann Hari's book Stolen Focus, where he interviews a couple of insiders.

    So no, the stated intent is not the bias (at least initially). The bias is an pathological outcome of optimising for ads.

    But looking at some of Meta's intentional actions more recently, it seems like maybe it can become an intentional outcome after the fact?

  • Elon Musk Suggests Getting Rid Of All Regulations In Midnight Call
  • Number 3 is interesting for me.. The finance sector is pretty aware of the need to control stupid risk taking, and the don't want another GFC, so I guess they'd (broadly) want to keep some of the regulation around that. What else is there? General bad acting and things like excessive fees? That also seems to be a risk driver, in the long term, as it leads to e.g. increased loan defaults... Where do you think the key problems would be?

    Edit: whoops, this was supposed to be in reply to @r00ty@kbin.life

  • What are some examples of 'common sense' which are nonsense?
  • Yeah, that's fair, for sure, to some degree. For instance large fractions of policing funding should be redirected into various social services, and military spending can get fuck off all together.

    But also, wealthier people paying more than an equal share of tax is a good thing too, and provides lots of intangible benefits (e.g. better education systems and fewer people in extreme poverty and desperation leads to lower crime rates)

  • EDM @lemmy.world naught101 @lemmy.world
    naught101 - MANYANA
    weeklybeats.com MANYANA

    Quick one while travelling, kind of a mess, but it came together. Even though this could do with a little more mixing, I think its amazing how much you can deal with problems JUST with composition.. minor rearrangements can make mixing problems just disappear..

    MANYANA

    Made some EDM today. Bit wack, but fun. All done on the dirtywave m8, samples self-recorded.

    https://weeklybeats.com/naught101/music/manyana

    0
    Is it possible to be comfortable with two desktop OSs (e.g. shortcuts, mouse)

    I've been a linux user for 20 years (mostly on KDE). I just started at a new job, and they gave me a mac. I found out later that I could have got a linux machine instead, which is a bit annoying. Still, I know there are some nice things about a mac, and I figured I'd give it a try for a while.

    I'm pretty quick moving around my desktop environment, and I'm finding picking up the mac is not too bad. BUT I use keyboard shortcuts a lot, and they are all every different on a mac. So whenever I switch back and forth between my work machine, I end up stumbling a bunch and wasting my time, and getting annoyed. It's mostly keyboard shortcuts, but the trackpad buttons and scrolling are annoying too.

    So, question is: is it possible to regularly use two OSs with wildly different control surfaces, and be comfortable with it? e.g. either MacOS + Linux, or I guess MacOS + Windows? Or will it be annoying forever?

    32
    When reading (or listening), what kind of imagery hits you the hardest?

    When you're reading or listening to verbal material ( e.g. fiction, nonfiction, prose, poetry, lyrics, etc.), what kind of imagery has the most impact?

    Imagery in the broad sense (including all senses, not just sight).

    "Kind" can be whatever categorisation you can think of, e.g. genre, sense, place, scale, human/non-human, etc.

    7
    InitialsDiceBearhttps://github.com/dicebear/dicebearhttps://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/„Initials” (https://github.com/dicebear/dicebear) by „DiceBear”, licensed under „CC0 1.0” (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/)NA
    naught101 @lemmy.world
    Posts 4
    Comments 353