I think it’s more likely that we will see smaller scale attacks by domestic terrorists, ranging from mass shootings to something on the scale of a Timothy McVeigh. I can also see a probability of a return to a 1960s/1970s level of political violence and assassinations.
I think those are more likely than a large scale attack from foreign terrorists.
Twice a week? According to this, there were 346 school shootings in the US in 2023. Almost enough for one per day. Then remember holidays and the winter and summer breaks...
I think this stat only counts K-12 schools too, not colleges.
We lose more than a 9/11’s worth of people every day still due to COVID. The presence of other factors that result in death in no way erases this amount of loss, and yet we’re so numb to this it almost feels like it isn’t happening anymore to most of us.
Unfortunately I think we’re all too desensitized from the last decade or so to care if anything does happen, but I genuinely hope I’m wrong. It’s not looking good, though.
I recently read a book by a retired agent about the effort against terrorism. If I remember correctly, terrorism has changed substantially since 9/11. The author described that terrorist nowadays are still organised more or less centrally but have a focus on smaller activities. I remember them describing them as "Nike terrorists" because of Niles slogan "just do it". The smaller and more isolated activities are apparently much harder to detect and counter than massive attempts like 9/11
As someone who is not American, it's so obvious that your shit is a bit fucked. Everyone is so deeply unhappy, it's being channelled into political partisanship.
Honestly I don't think there's any way to get back on track without some kind of event that galvanises you.
I was thinking that a more imminent or physical threat would be "galvanising" but then, the way information gets all twisted around these days, I don't think such an event really exists.
Some external group doing a terrorist attack? Nah, they don't need to. The US can attack themselves easily and will. With the coming high court ruling coming about Trump being withheld from voting slips (correct term? Not being alowed to be on the list during election) will be a huge thing. Either the very conservative judges he appointed will rule he incited a riot and should not be allowed in office again (according to the intention of article 14 of the US constitution, which those judges say they adhere), or they will say it's not up to us.
In the 1st case, the Trump adepts will start the 2nd civil war, in the 2nd case, who knows. Leaving it to the states could result in problems in some.
However you look at it, the USA is on it's way to a massive implosion. With a destabalised political system like that, which state needs enemies. No real democratic system has only 2 parties.
I think the likelihood of another major terrorist attack happening on US soil is drastically higher now than 30 years ago. But thats due to a lot of factors, primarily increased political hostility and increased population density.