So is the US slipping into Civil War?
So is the US slipping into Civil War?
People keep talking about "Federalizing the National Guard" and now you've got other States pledging their NG to Texas in defiance of the Supreme Court (see image).
So is this what CW2 looks like?
P.S. I'm a Brit
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Itâs not a totally unreasonable impression, but no, this will not turn into a second civil war. The Guard units of each state can be called up for federal duty. The National Guard is part of the US Department of Defense and thus ultimately answers to the DoD and the US president as commander in chief. The US military has multiple components, including regular services (eg the full time Army), reserve components (eg US Army Reserve) and National Guard components. The latter two are part-time military with one weekend per month training duty plus an annual training. Guards members and Reservists hold regular full time jobs.
The Guard units are deployable by the governors of their respective states, and so can be used in emergency situations like natural disasters. They have also been deployed against what have been perceived as riots that threaten lives and properties of the individual states.
However, they are subject to activation by order of the US president and they fall under the national command authority. Guard personnel take the same oath to the constitution as other military personnel, and cannot legally refuse federal activation. Guards personnel would be subject to courts martial and face potentially extreme penalties including being discharged from service under criminal conditions, being stripped of rank and benefits, and jail time in federal prison. This would be what we call a career limiting rule.
So, if push comes to shove, Biden can activate the NG and order them to stand down or to implement policies to maintain order. Thinking the NG units and in particular their commanders would disobey a presidential order because they just love their state governor and hate the president so much is getting into Turner Diaries levels of right wing apocalyptic fantasy.
All of which misses a critical point:
The forming of the Confederacy wasn't "legal" either.
We can handwave away concerns about mounting threats of violence by citing regulation and law, but none of that actually addresses the underlying issue that if these people want to start shit, they will find an avenue.
And let's also not sit here, in 2024, and assume the institutions, norms, checks, and intended safeguards in our system will always work when they need to. We've seen far, far too many breakdowns and failures in our system over the last decade to believe otherwise.
Thatâs what frustrates me so much about the framing of the situation weâre in right now: most people - and the vast majority of major media organizations - are fully intent on presenting this as ânormalâ, but itâs very fucking clearly not. Itâs assumed by so many that the rules will simply be followed⌠and then they turn around and cover Trump, whose whole bit is to not follow the rules because he doesnât feel like it and wants to stay in power forever. Itâs like being unconcerned about standing 3 feet away from an uncaged, unleashed siberian tiger because someone once told you at one point that it had been âtrainedâ.
You have to understand that the US military today is a very different organization than it was in the 1860s. I know - I served and majored in military history for my first undergraduate degree, and studied the civil war in particular. I also come from a military family with a father, grandfather, and uncle who served as officers until retirement age.
Far right domestic terrorism is a real and developing threat coming from both former military personnel and from civilians. The election of a far right government that shreds the constitution is also a major threat to American democracy. But if the shit does come down, itâs not going to be because some Guardsmen decide that theyâd follow DeSantis over Biden.
Military justice is no joke. Falling on the wrong side of it can end people. The military is also very integrated and has political as well as ethnic diversity. Iâm not saying you couldnât find an Army colonel who wouldnât want to engage in an armed rebellion, but the country today is very, very different than it was mid-19th century, and so is the military.
Please do note that I do see the rise of American fascism as a real threat. Itâs just not going to manifest because state Guard orgs decide to disobey orders.
Since you studied the Civil War, I got a book from my grandfather before he passed, Don't Know Much about The Civil War, by Kenneth C. Davis, and was wondering if you've read of heard of this book and if it would be a good resource or not to read about the Civil War? Or if you can recommend another book or author that is great for learning about the Civil War, I'd appreciate any helpful insights as I'm curious to learn more about the Civil War, thank you.
The Battle Cry of Freedom is pretty widely seen as being one of the best introductions to the civil war.
Thank you! Luckily it's at my local library so I'll pick this up first thing tomorrow if they're open, appreciate your help!
They have also been deployed against what have been perceived as riots that threaten lives and properties of the individual states.
Yeah, like when they got called up against random citizens in Minneapolis...