Late Christmas Day or early Tuesday, Ukrainian air force bombers struck the Russian Black Sea Fleet landing ship 'Novocherkassk' in Feodosia in southeastern Crimea.
Russia has orders of a magnitude more fighting age men and resources than Ukraine. If Russian losses are two to one or three to one in a battle it is still a loss for Ukraine. Ukraine just don’t have the population or material to absorb those losses. Ukraine needs to have a 5 or 6 to one ratio to win in a conflict with Russia.
In every past conflict in history Russia traditionally does terrible in the first few years of a conflict and absorbs staggering losses but is able to figure out what works and ultimately wins.
The fact that Ukraine which five or six years ago didn’t have a
functional military is still in this fight is very telling for how bad Russia's military has atrophied after the Cold War.
The front lines have solidified and Russia has shown they can learn to fight defensively. The best Ukraine can do now is perhaps cut off transport routes to Crimea and make the Russian position there untenable. Otherwise unless there is some kind of major revolution in Russia it’s doubtful that Ukraine can retake their lost lands.
However, I still support supplying Ukraine with arms. This is Russia's 9th military invasion of a neighboring country since the end of the Cold War. It won’t be their last unless they are bled dry. Ukraine has the will to fight them, they just need arms.
Russia doesn't have anywhere near "orders of magnitude" more fighting men. That's 100 times more at minimum. Russia's population is about four times that of Ukraine, and their demographic pyramids are similar.
Russia's actual limitations are not in the raw numbers of people, though. It's in public support. Russia doesn't have the base of domestic support that Ukraine naturally has by defending against an invader.
Russia is also absolutely not unbeatable. It has lost plenty of wars. 1st Chechen war, Afghanistan, World War One, Crimea.
Though they cannot take land, the Ukrainians are only getting better at dismantling Russian fires capabilities and eliminating enemy units. They are learning too and they are learning where it counts in an attritional fight. War is politics and this conflict will become politically untenable for Russia far earlier than it will for Ukraine.
I'd point out Vietnam and Afghanistan for the USA, or Afghanistan vs the USSR. Those were tiny, poorly equipped countries fighting against the most powerful militaries in the world. Said small countries eventually started receiving materiel, training, and intelligence support from powerful allies.
They didn't have to kill all their enemies or push them off the land they held -- they weren't capable of it. They won by just dragging the conflict on and making it as expensive and difficult as possible for the other side. A common path to victory is the enemy saying "this fight is no longer politically/economically worth it" and withdrawing.
Russia lost as soon as they failed to complete their stated "objectives" as fast as they arrogantly thought they would as they mixed up cosplaying as a superpower with actually being one. They're no longer able to meaningfully "win" in Ukraine and with each passing day their position only weakens, while Ukraine gets stronger. The only question now is how badly Russia's going to lose.
The real question is can Russia outlast outside aid to Ukraine.
If USA aid dries up, that will substantially hurt Ukraine. Can the EU make up for it? Even if they can, will they?
Are there any elections coming up in EU support heavy countries where that support could flip like in USA? Can Putin wait that out?
If Russia can start moving forward due to less Ukraine support, will Ukraine keep fighting indefinitely or will they eventually give up territory to Russia to end it?
There's so many unknowns.
The win Russia wanted is gone, but make no mistake Ukraine can only hold out as long as they have support. Russia can and will meat grinder past them if support erodes and they can wait quite awhile longer.
Hopefully they can hold out long enough for this US madness to sort itself out. (Edit but that might last until Jan 2025 and only change if Dems flip the house)
Putin has effectively destroyed Russia's position on the world stage, calling it a loss is really understating things. When we saw their military was a joke, they lost significant credibility. They're nowhere near superpower status, and their global influence has happened in spite of their military -- and is endangered now that it's truly seen.
Ukraine was invaded. They are defending. Their purpose is to defend their country, not to "win", and yes they are doing it. However, Russia has actually managed to lose the war.