Return to office is ‘dead,’ Stanford economist says. Here’s why
Return to office is ‘dead,’ Stanford economist says. Here’s why
The share of workers being called back to the office has flatlined, suggesting remote work is an entrenched feature of the U.S. labor market.
Right now, and it's been this way for a while, the labor market is favoring the workers, so employers had to keep WFH or lose workers. It's surprising that the person writing this article missed that as also a long term trend.
I suspect that now that the economy is cooling, the demand for labor will also cool, power will go back to the employers, and you'll see less and less full wfh positions.
What indicators are there the economy is cooling? Genuinely asking because I thought we just got a great report about economic growth at 5.2%, which is the fastest quarterly rate in 2 years. I know the interest rates are high, but people are still spending.
Us job growth is down, inflation is down, jobless claims up, consumer spending down...pretty much every indicator over the past few weeks has showed the economy cooling. The 3rd quarter ended in September.
They do mention the favorable workers market as a contributing factor, and they say that it would take a recession to see the trend reverse
My bad, thanks for the correction.
I got to the part
“We are three and a half years in, and we’re totally stuck,” Bloom said of remote work. “It would take something as extreme as the pandemic to unstick it.”
And I think even a mild recession is going to "unstick" a lot of it, as I personally don't believe it is in the benefit of business, for collaborative work (such as software development). I ended up not reading the entire article.
The long term demographic trend is towards labor power, ceteris paribus.
To expand on this, Baby Boomers were the largest generation of people in America. They're all retiring or dying now. There are not enough Gen Z to replace them and the number of Gen Alpha will be even smaller since birth rates fell off a cliff in 2008. Unless the US decides to reverse its anti-immigrant policies, the supply of labor will be going down for the foreseeable future, meaning labor will have much more power.
Obviously, there are many reasons why that's a good thing. But I do worry that it'll erode the boundary between work and free time even further. The best jobs I've ever had, were when I had a time clock.
I arrived. I clocked in. I was working.
I clocked out. I was no longer working. I didn't really think or worry about work that much.
With working from home, there's a danger you keep working for longer, or are never truly mentally 'off the clock'. The work day ends, but you're in the kitchen and remember that thing you had to do, and quickly log back in. Or the boss, who's used to calling you, calls you after hours to check something.
It's important to have a hard dilineation between work and not work. For all its downsides, the commute to and from the office offered that.
If work from home is the new normal, we need to find new ways to safeguard that dilineation, and ensure work time doesn't bleed into free time. Also, that the work space doesn't invade our personal space too much. Like a box of work documents in the kitchen that makes you slightly stressed by its sheer presence.
Set alarm, clock in, clock out. If you're unable to do it at home it's because you would have been unable to do it by going to the office, people do so much unpaid overtime no matter where they work, it's ridiculous.
It requires some self control, but it's not that hard to create a boundary when working from home. I'd rather exercise some self control than waste so much of my time and energy on the daily commute. A boss calling you after hours for anything short of an emergency is a shitty boss. He could just as well do that if you're not working from home, after all.
Eroding that boundary can also be in your favor... I can step away from the desk for a few minutes to start my laundry, prep something for dinner, or even just go to the grocery store during "lunch" because I can bring the food straight back home since I'm not far away from home at an office. Working remotely is giving me back time. And this isn't time "lost" from the employer's perspective... I'm just doing something useful with my break times rather than wandering down to the water-cooler to chat with other employees.
The trick is to allow only the erosion that you find acceptable. That's a matter of personal organization and self-control, and each person has to set up a system that works best for them. I use a spare bedroom as my office, and I only go in there during working hours. Everything work-related stays in there.
Obviously, there are many reasons why that's a good thing. But I do worry that it'll erode the boundary between work and free time even further. The best jobs I've ever had, were when I had a time clock.
I’m the exact opposite. I like there being fewer boundaries between work and free time and these things blurring together more. I’m only allowed to be busy with work between 9:00 and 17:00? What if I’m stuck on something, I can’t do a chore in the house to clear my head? What if I have a good idea at 22:00, do I have to wait until the next morning to try it out?
For me this compartmentalization of my life feels unnatural. It feels much more natural to just flow between work and personal stuff. I may be struggling with how to implement something, so I’ll stop coding an empty the dishwasher, let the problem simmer in the back of my mind. Usually it’s cleared up after taking my mind off it for a while. It would be hell to have to just sit at my desk staring at my screen, trying to force my brain into doing something because now is ‘work time’ and I can only spend that time on work. In reality when I worked from the office every day that time would just have been wasted with some aimless web browsing.
I think we should move in the opposite direction: less separation of work and personal time and get rid of the whole concept of working and personal hours to begin with. Just do what needs to be done, when you want to do it.
The work day ends, but you’re in the kitchen and remember that thing you had to do, and quickly log back in.
When I have to work in an office and that happens, I am instead up half the night worrying about the consequences. I'd rather get sleep.
I can't imagine so many enjoy having work invade their personal lives. I built my home for comfort and relaxation, adding work into that destroyed my home. I bring zero work home with me, I don't even think of it when I leave my office. Adding that into your home creates a dark place that will lead to depression.
I do exactly this; log on occasionally to finish small things, take the occasional emergency call from a colleague to help them out, work a little past the end of my shift just to get stuff done, etc. whilst I recognise it’s bad and advise others not to do it, I do as it feels like a small sacrifice for what I get in return.
I am 100% WFH. I save 2 hours a day on commuting, plus not having to iron shirts and general office-level prep. I save money on fuel and car maintenance. I have ready access to my own food and drink and is healthier than what’s in range of my office. I get to be with my family more, help the missus with our 2 young kids when needed, do housework or play with the kids on my lunch. I can focus on my work rather than having people constantly talking to me.
All these things combined make me considerably happier and calmer, even though my job is actually incredibly stressful :D haha.
Whilst I never condone working for free, I justify it to myself as a trade; never make me come to an office ever again and I’ll chuck in the extra 10% every now and again, haha.
You’re thinking in the right direction. And, employers are going to increasingly insist on what I like to call repressionware, hardware and software installed in your home workspace that effectively leashes you to work, vitiating many of the advantages wfh gives today.
Employers will quickly learn that leashing a person to their laptop will not prevent wasted time, it'll cause them to waste time in other ways, and will drive away talent. The only harm is when it impacts outcomes, which is easier and more beneficial to track.
It's pretty obvious when someone is underperforming, you don't need to know whether they've been doing the laundry between meetings.
It is dead until they need to train the next generation of workers. If they can do it full remote and train the next generation, they are going to stop paying the expensive city premium.